Saturday, 20 April 2013

Well Today...

Yes indeed " Well Today " i did almost feel like saying " Fuck Ya then "as nobody could be arsed droppin a comment in or saying hi or pretty much all anything so no cards today , no tips today and nada el nada but Good lad Simon ( The Owl ) and the lovely Tracey from EPDS Racing did make a late run for conversation and i have been persuaded to run a card of sorts for AYR ( as requested ) and if i get time i may well just add a few nibbles in from Newbury...
You see the thing is Guys ( n Gals ) it can take me upto 4 hours to run a full card out and its nigh on impossible to get done late on thru the morning as im so busy ( most cards are provisionally done the night before then tweaked ) so if you do want any future cards or summaries that are not advertised to be posted then let me know the day before it makes it so much easier all round ;)

Well i have to say...what a stunning morning it has been so far weather wise , blue skies unblemished and quite warm when stood in the glare of currant bun , sat outside with me morning brew relaxing in the glow.....but for how long?....would be nice to just get a few days of this to wipe away the misery of what has probably been the longest winter ever.

We had another crackerjack day yesterday but it wasnt all highs as i had a few that ran well below what i was expecting  ( which is to be expected, after all im not fuckin Merlin ) and a few bad rides didnt help....but we have one or two to watch out for next run and this year has been a good year for the trials and i think we could have a very good Classics Year as we do have quite a few Potential Stars about with a couple more to come from France....im thinking this year will be huge in the big races and we are in for some treats!.

So for Tracey , lets take a look at AYR.

AYR

RACE 1
WIN - MUBROOK - 1st @ 8.67
EW - RHYMERS HA -
LONG - REAPING REWARD - 3rd @ 10.5
LAYBET : LITTLE FRITZ - Unplaced
*Tricky race to start on a very tough looking card and it doesnt help that these back end meetings do supply their fair share of shocks but here we go , a Hand n Heels Finale and i think the first stop is with RHYMERS HA which is rather exposed and does need some cajoling thru its races but is an easy ride, good jumper and in the main travels quite well and his consistency could be rewarded here.
Elsewhere i also like REAPING REWARD which appears to have been laid out for this race and has previously shown a very consistent profile and i am expecting a big run from this today.
Finally i think we should have MUBROOK with us a horse that frustrated many a time last season but has shown a far better consistency this term showing up well in his last three runs and not beaten that far and is another that could go well at a decent price ( as i write this this i didnt realise it was just 6.2 )...

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - At decent odds on all three i think we can start the day off with a level stakes Dutch , only average stakes as its a tough race and its quite open so no real amount of strength behind any.
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RESULT - A 1st and a 3rd give us a very nice profit to start the day and the drift on Mubrook was nice ;).
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RACE 2

WIN - TAP NIGHT - 2nd @ 2.69
EW - RAJDHANI EXPRESS - 1st @ 4.40
LONG - N/A -
LAYBET : REBEL REBELLION - Unplaced
*Small field ( disappointing ) but kinda expected after the recent 2 big festival like meetings ( Cheltenham & Aintree ) and with Punchestown on the Horizon theses always attract a strange shape however this imo only concerns 2 runners , RAJDHANI EXPRESS & TAP NIGHT mas i cant see any of the remainder being good enough to break these and i feel the value is with Rajdhani Express although i do expect Tap Night to win as it holds marginally the best form and its recent 2nd behind Captain Conan would be good enough to take this down.

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - Fixed return Dutch on the two...no problemo ;)
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RESULT - Well i think we got some luck there as Changing times approached the last and level but was going much better but collapsed thru the final fence and gave Rajdhani express the win miles clear of the 2nd...;)..another great Profit race.
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RACE 3

WIN - GRUMETI -
EW - UNE ARTISTE -
LONG - SAMETEGAL - 2nd @ 4.60
*Now we have the Scottish Champion Hurdle and it looks a nice race but this all revolves around GRUMETI nad has it over come its recent training issues, will it be ready ( should be ) and has anything happened to affect its confidence? , well for me i say yes it will be and yes it should win as it easily has the best form available and i feel it should answer the questions put to it and at 6.0 this is a superb EW bet  , if it loses then so be it but its one of those bets that simply has to be struck.

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - I simply have to smash into GRUMETI @ 6.0  or better EW as this is an outstanding " value " bet , if it loses take it on the chin but you cannot pass this one up , getting 6.0 on a 3.0 shot ( with a run under its belt of any significance then its around 2.5 ).
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RESULT - 4th , Looked nailed on for a place approaching the last and there was a mad dash for the line as Court Minstrel come from well off the pace and under a superbly timed ride from Adam Wedge took the Honors...good race , a loss on that one tho.
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RACE 4

WIN - SACRE TOI -
EW - HIS EXCELLENCY - 2nd @ 10.90
LONG - N/A -
*Next up is another small field affair and its a Hcap Chase that is wide open and any of these could put a run together to win this and tbh i dont have any real strong thoughts on this but i will have a small go on SACRE TOI & HIS EXCELLENCY as both are capable performers and both should be decent prices and i think for small stakes/big returns you could get a lot of fun out of this race.

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - Small level stakes Dutch @ bfsp on these for some fun , dont go crazy.
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RESULT - Good race and good fun, we got a decent run for some shillings, only a small stake race so no harm done.
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RACE 5

WIN - GODSMEJUDGE - 1st @ 14.50
EW - OUR MICK -
LONG - BRADLEY -
*And its time for the Big Yin " The Scottish Grand National " and although this lacks some of the luster and is maybe not as hard as the Aintree equivalent its still a prestigious race which is incredibly tough to win and i feel that using the magic Pin is often the best way to sort through these...no real thoughts here , just picking 3 using my Jedi Powers.

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - None.
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RESULT - 1st @ 14.50 tells you all you need to know.
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RACE 6

WIN - GREEN FLAG - 2nd @ 5.75 ( Just done on the line , couldnt make up the ground , beaten a HD )
EW - HOLLO LADIES -
LONG - ROCK RELIEF -
LAYBET : ARCTIC COURT @ 5.9 - Unplaced
*A run o the Mill hcap now and im quite keen on GREEN FLAG a horse that is Both a C & D winner loves most if not all ground types , is super consistent, jumps for fun and has the handy Graham Watters doing the steering and @ 9.8 this is a bet that appeals to me.

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - A decent sized EW punt on GREEN FLAG for me with a small win saver Hollo Ladies.
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RESULT - A great 2nd means its yet another good profit race.
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PLACEPOT LANDED = 4 LINES @ £538.70 = £448.71 ( ON ADVICE )  Profit.

RACE 7

WIN - SYDNEY PAGET -
EW - HAWKES POINT - NON-RUNNER - 
LONG - FENTARA - 2ND @ 11.30
*

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - None
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RESULT - Got a fair run from both runners but neither were good enough although Sydney hit 6/4 in running , Place dutch would have been nice ;)
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RACE 8

WIN - TRADEWINDS - ( NAP ) - 2nd @ 2.02
EW - GLINGERBURN -
LONG - N/A -
*Tradewinds looks a very impressive recruit to the game and has shown a fair bit of ability when dispatching Master Malt by 13L at Kempton and this could be just that little bit special.

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - MAX Win bet on TRADEWINDS.
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RESULT - Fuck a Duck..this let me down for quite a few doubles n trebles...i would like to blame the ride tbh..too often they sit these hotpots out the back and end losing to something that has a gifted lead...oh well , great day over all.
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So there we have it , that is AYR covered , good luck if your playing as we have some tough old races out there today.
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Elsewhere......

Newbury , this has been quite kind to me this week and again we have a rather nice looking card with some wonderful runners and here is a brief list of what i like..

1. SHIELAS BUDDY - EW - 2nd @ 9.69

2. NOBLE MISSION - WIN - 3rd @ 2.26 ( hit 1.14 )

3. BRAE HILL / CAPTAIN BERTIE - EW - Both Unplaced ( Heart Bets )

4. MAUREEN / THE GOLD CHEONGSAM - WIN - 1st @ 4.38

5. OLYMPIC GLORY ( UBER NAP ) - WIN - 1st @ 1.79
**This i really really like ( like the world and its dog apparently )
6. BOLD SNIPER - EW - 4th -
**Another New Approach Colt for me to follow ;)
7. SQUIRE OSBALDESTON - EW - 4th

The only mega Fancy is obviously Olympic Glory but i do expect to have some fun with the others through the day as i have them in a mix of EW Trebles ( Not OG ).

Thirsk...

1. AL FREEJ - EW - 2nd @ 4.30

2. NORDIKHAB - WIN - 3rd @ 1.70

3. NO POPPY - EW - Unplaced ( Ran Ok )

4. SUEGIOO - EW - 2nd @ 3.90 ( beaten in a photo )

5. SATSUMA - WIN - 3rd @ 3.36

6. MAJESTIC MYLES - EW NAP - 2ND @ 3.38

7. KUNG HEI FAT CHOI - EW - Unplaced ( Ran Shit )

8. ART DZEKO - EW - Unplaced ( Ran Shit )

And there ya go....lay the lot and fill yer boots lol ;))..time for some Breakfast now before the serious work starts..have a great day all....

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