Monday, 4 May 2015

Winners n Losers from the weekend..

Morning Everyone and happy Star Wars day ;-),
                                                                             Well that was a busy weekend with the opening couple of Classics that really didn't inspire much and before i post all the results from weekend selections lets take a quick review on the classics.

2000 Guineas was Won by the 4/1F Gleaneagles who ran on the rail side just off the pace and in the pack that imo always has the advantage and it looked like a sprint in truth as they all seemed to just race with the choke out and at the 3f pole they all seemed to be going hell for leather then between 3 and 2f Gleneagles positioned himself to the out of the leading trio and quickened up sufficiently to give himself a 2L lead and with nothing else really capable of following his lead he stayed on very well and with strength to see his rivals off.
Now i am wont denigrate the winner but the time as a core concept was poor and yes i know it was only half a second slower than Frankels but slower than most and Frankel Won as he liked and wasnt pressed in any way and from the last 12 Years only Henrythenavigator and Camelot have run slower times and the fractions for this don't interest me as it was a oddly run race ( is often ) this all said The winner won on merit although i will give a mention to Ivawood who i thought was unlucky not in running but because of his draw and i feel that had this been sat just off or level with Gleneagles then this result may have been different. This wasn't imo a strong renewal and having the likes of Bossy Guest run so close kinda backs that up although a rag can often throw a big run in these blue riband events and i still feel that had the ground been softer and Elm Park had run then it would have won from the front and been untouchable.

In truth im not sure what to really make from this race won in a very average to poor time on perfect racing ground with a perfect draw and a perfect seam into the race i really though he should have shown more domination but that wasn't his way maybe what you can take from it is that he stays very well and the way he was still motoring at the end would suggest to me that he would get the 1m4f trip for the Derby no problem as i feel the slower earlier sections in that race will also play into his hands and i would expect the same tactics..ridden just off the haunches of the leading pack and the 2f from make the field splitting move and at this current stage of the season i see little around that has impressed me enough to suggest he could have an easy season...hopefully over the next few weeks a few clues will present themselves however it is interesting that Gleneagles is best priced 10/1 for the Derby and has just as i type drifted from 18/1 to 20/1 with Betfair...yes 20/1 whilst the still to run Elm Park is just 8/1 across all the boards....and i think this tells its own story and Gleaneagles will have to perform again and at a much better level and with far more superiority before i get involved with the disappointingly rated 116 winner.

Over we go to the 1000 Guineas the equivalent race but for the Fillies this time and this was won by the Wachman Trained and Ryan Moore ridden LEGATISSIMO and wow wow wow did this horse impress me , not only was its time fully 3 seconds quicker than its stronger male rival in the 2000 it was won in such a manner that had me drooling!!, yes we have just seen this years Oaks Winner make no mistake and the 9/2 with William Hill should be smashed off the boards because that is a gift as i already have it as low as 6/4 !!!!!....so for me the Uber value has already presented itself.
The 2nd this day and the Fav Lucida make no mistake is very smart indeed and should stick to competing in all the top 1m races as she will win plenty but once stepped upto 1m2f or 1m4f then the Wachman trained Legatissimo will destroy everything this year she looks to me like the Female Frankel...just incredible and take Lucida out of this race and the field was visibly dismantled ( Lucida did start badly and briefly lost her irons but that would not have had any effect on the race ) .
Legatissimo started well and Ryan had her tucked up towards the rear minding her own business and just lollygagging whilst the field jostled and raced for position and pressure she simply just switched off and cantered through the race and when the hit the opening at the 3f pole Lucida had them all at it striding out beautifully thru the middle carving open a passage of desstruction leaving all of her rivals bewildered expect the marauding Legatissimo who now just entering the 2f was only just starting to get wound up and as they left the field behind and come into the 1f pole the afterburners were lit and she just powered past the fast running Lucida ...it was majestic and this trip i would say would have to be her absolute minimum and i wouldnt preferably want to see her run over it again as she is a dyed in the wool stayer.

Over to the results in general from the weekend which certainly for the EW backers proved to be quite healthy.

1. PERSONA GRATA - NON RUNNER

    EDUCATE - 3RD @ 11/2
    BALTY BOYS - 1ST @ 8/1

2. PEARL SECRET - NON RUNNER

3. PETHERS MOON - UNPLACED ( PPL Win in this )

4. ELM PARK - NON RUNNER

And now Sunday's Selections...

5. WATERSMEET - 4TH @ 14/1 ( Betfair would have paid due to 4 non runners )
    AGENT MURPHY - NON RUNNER
    QUEST FOR MORE - 2ND @ 12/1

6. RIZEENA - UNPLACED
    FINTRY - UNPLACED

7. HUNTSMAN CLOSE - 2ND @ 12/1
    HILLYBILLY BOY - UNPLACED
    SHORE STEP - NON RUNNER

8. TERROR - UNPLACED
    FADHAYIL - UNPLACED

9. ACADEMY HOUSE - 3RD @ 14/1
 
10. ZANNDA - NAP - 2ND @ 15/8

11. BROTHERLEY COMPANY - EW NAP - 4TH @ 12/1

So there we have it now lets apply a stake of £100 EW on EVERY Runner and see how we would have done!!....

From 19 EW Single we would have made a PROFIT of £147.50
and just for the sake of curiosity if you had done the same spread in EW doubles ( granted this would be odd as you have multiple selections from the same race on many an occasion ) this would have given a PROFIT of £245.75 , EW TREBLES would have given a PROFIT of £9930.80 and EW 4 Folds would have given an amazing £85071.83 ( although rather laughably the stake outlay would have been £775,000 lol..but still a nice return lol....

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