Friday, 29 August 2014

The Six Pack....

Morning Campers....
                              Its been another mundane run o the mill week with little or no action and just a few bets to mention ( to myself )  so far had just three serious bets this week , 1 x 1st , 1 x Max EW that was 2nd and an unplaced although i did get on a 50/1 Winner midweek but only for pennies as it was a " fun bet " so not a great deal to shout about as we enter the transitional period in both racing terms and weather wise as the evenings start to slowly draw in , the air gets a wee bit cooler the racing gets a bit trickier as the ground changes and flirts between firm and soft and those with the big Autumn races as their objectives come n flex their respective muscles.....very interesting few weeks coming up..

Today we have one small race to look at a Class 1 over at Salisbury this evening for the Juveniles and on Saturday we have a great 5 race line up with some very decent looking races indeed...giving us our 6 pack for the weekend...lets go have some fun.

The Friday Race >

18:40 SALISBURY > EBF Stallions Stonehenge Stakes (Listed).
This is a £20k race over 1m for the 2 yr olds and this is a tough test for most but it comes at the right time of the year for them although the Good/Soft ground will stretch them out.
Unsurprisingly we have no distance winners in the field although one has tried and been placed here over this trip and most have good winning form over 7f , the MJ trained Mister Universe comes here with the Highest given rating of 94 but in truth i have no fucking idea where they plucked that number from 2nd then 1st in a couple of 6f Maidens then a well beaten 5th in the Superlative Stakes and doesnt look currently anything like good enough..but it is a MJ horse and for obvious reasons cannot be fully discounted but i dont see it winning here.
Tupi is a similar horse with a similar profile and has been in fine fettle but seems to lack that extra gear and was ridden fully 1f out over 7f in its win but did stay on well enough to gain the victory but does look exposed to anything with a finishing kick and is another overlooked.
So we are left with the two market leaders and the rank outsider and at the current prices of 2.86 / 3.50 and 60.0 this is an obvious dutch with the front two a strong bet and a small % as cover on Groor.
WINTERS MOON showed up well fto and then ran respectably in the Sweet Solario and looks like the step up in trip is needed and looks a very promising sort however i was equally impressed with ELM PARK who ran a corker lto and looks a sure fire stayer with a touch of class admittedly it only won an egg n spoon maiden against patently lesser opposition however he looks a definite improver with tons of ability and the canny trainer will have a good idea of what he has and im pretty sure this son of Phoenix Reach could turn out quite smart.

BET SUMMARY : Dutch as illustrated.

RESULT = Elm Park - 1st @ 3.0
                    Groor      - 2nd @ 42.60
                  Winters Moon - 3rd @ 4.14  ( RFC = £41.13 )


Moving onto Saturday.....

The first of the days Five races is the European Wealth Solario Stakes (Group 3)..and this is another for 2 yr olds but this time over a slightly extended 7f  and for a £30k race its rather annoyingly under represented with just then 6 runners taking part although this could be down to 5 as ELM PARK is also listed as a possible runner here so it will be very interesting if he gets tugged and takes his chance here although imo he has a far lesser chance in this but not without.
Ive a feeling the ground will be on the soft side here so it may pay to take a look at those proven in the ground and looking through i can see that only Future Empire has yet to feel the mud squelch thru its hooves so on that basis i am leaving this out of my equation.
Last years Winner of this race was the imperious and quite brilliant Kingman and there doesn't look to be anything in quite that mould this year but there are some nice sorts on show with the re-opposing COCK O' THE NORTH & AKTABANTAY looking the most likely winners here as Pallister looks quite exposed and Lexington Times just not good enough.

RESULT - 

1.AKTABANTAY 1st @ 3.34
2.

BET SUMMARY > Dutch on the two mentioned although if Elm Park does take a place here then i would be involving that some how , a tricky race this one and Low Stakes only.

The 2nd race of the day is the Betfred Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes (Listed)..this time for 3+ yr olds and its a sprint over 5f and will be run at a furious pace as they all vie for a good racing position as Beverley can catch a few out.
Now old KINGSGATENATIVE still has plenty of juice left in the tank but is quite unpredictable and today for the first time i shall leave him alone ( watch him romp home ) because surely with all things being equal today HAS to be the day that PEARL SECRET finally shines , it has its ideal conditions in a race that will be run to suit against far lesser opposition than he has raced against lately , touted as Europes next great sprinting star and with an endless amount of hyperbole to follow this up this Pearl no longer has any secrets , first run this year saw it piss up in the soft in a conditions race at Nottingham which gave credence to the myth then it was put in as a 10/3 2nd fav for the Palace House but was soundly beaten back down in the field ( although only around 3L away ) by the brilliant Sole Power , then just failed to collar stable mate Hot Streak in the Temple Stakes but it was an improved run and then did not turn a stride in the King Stand after getting lit up and taking a fierce hold all the way through but it must be pointed out that the ground on its two poorest showings was on the firm side of good and that can be used as a valid excuse and now on his favoured softer surface this really ought to be winning today and i will be both disappointed and surprised if it cant...for me this horse is drinking in the last chance saloon...one last Max bet and if it fails its on the life long lay list.

BET SUMMARY > ( NAP ) Max Win bet on PEARL SECRET.

RESULT >
1. PEARL SECRET 1st @ 3.50
2.

The Days 3rd race is a NH event and its the Lord Mildmay Memorial Handicap Chase (Listed).. a race over 2m 5f for 4+ yrs and is a decent event for the time of year over the sticks and is worth £30k so as expected its a competitive affair but we do have a large disparity in both class, ratings and allotted weight but at the same time very few in this can be ruled out with any real conviction .
The last 5 winners of this race have varied in weight between 10-9 and 11-12 giving no clues , the last 5 winners of this have been between 9/2 and 14/1 ( 3 tho in double figures ) which lends considerable weight to leaving out the fav and even the 2nd fav from your assumptions and David Pipe is he most prolific with 2 wins from 5 runs and in this he saddles two runners who are rather oddly both the top and bottom weights , both lto winners and confusingly Tom Scud' has opted to take the bottom weight and they are using O'Farrell on the top weight and not using a conditional....hmmm , elsewhere we have the mighty Welshman Williams who brings 3 to play and all arrive in decent enough form for any of them to have a shout , and the remainder are made up of decent sorts from top yards and the only horse i will discount is Dursey Sound , the mount of AP and the likely Fav and this looks ripe for a MAX LAY if the price is right at anything under 3.60 im going to lay it to bits but ive a feeling this may start off around 4.60 the field..we will see tmrw...

BET SUMMARY >  Im going in with a speculative Dutch on the two Pipe runners as so many come here with a chance its not worth taking any form of real punt in this in fact at small stakes i may look to do a dutch double with one of the other races..the Cock o The North race is a good un...dont really like either so may be worth it for shits n giggles...

RESULT >
1. Houston Dynamo was a Head 2nd @ 6.64.....
2.


4th Race of the day is the Thoroughbred Breeders' Association Atalanta Stakes (Fillies' Group 3)..and this looks a decent field for this £50k race for 3 + yr olds over 1m and quite a few arrive in form and with victories over the distance.
Odeliz comes here 2nd top rated on 106 and although useful im not convinced good enough to be in this playground as she looks one paced and over rated , not far off this level but fully exposed and will be prone to anything with a solid finish and is easily dismissed.
ZIBELINA is a very interesting runner as she has more scope than most and was only just beaten by two rivals lto who are genuine rated 105/107 runners which gives her a solid look but she will have to run right upto that at the minimum and will have to show improvement to win but as the Betfair markets still look like shit i will hold fire on my fullest of views not knowing the correct price ( would expect at least 6/1 so will see if i can sneak some double figures in tmrw )..Zurigha's form is best on a different surface or even the AW and looks a horse punching above her weight is not one i like at all and is readily passed over , FLINTRY could be absolutely anything but is certainly a Filly with promise , 4 runs with a 2nd and 3 Wins indicates a Filly with ability and hails  from the powerful Fabre yard and is owned by the equally powerful Goldolphin team so everything points to a big run and much is expected but im not taking a skinny price about a horse whose form i cannot get a read on...this is where i need IDK to get on the blower and give me a low down on the French Form...at what i will approximate on will be at least 3 x the price i think WATER HOLE has an equal chance , again this has 4 runs with a 2nd and 3 Wins and is another with Distance form and more importantly will love the ground and this is another that could be anything but looks on an upward curve and is progressing , the negatives for this are that it needs to improve as it did beat in its last race the 2nd n 3rd by 2 & 10L they were only rated around 80 at best and that form is way below what will be required today and Water Hole will have to show at least 20lb of improvement to get involved...big ask..and a watch n see from me.
They are surely taking the Piss entering in Nur Jahan as i have more chance on foot than that...so what do we do..a race full of more questions than answers well for me i think a good ol fashioned " Fun EW " is in order on AUDACIA from the Hugo Palmer yard and ridden by Ryan Moore this Sixties Icon filly does in no way represent the class that has previously won this race and looks a quirky type but this also won on soft ground over this 1m trip at the stamina sapping Ponty track lto in such a dominant and convincing style that there is a belief from me that this has a lot more to offer and if on a good day she can reproduce that form ( beating a 2nd/3rd/4th all rated between 90 - 102 ) then she has an outstanding EW chance and could easily run on past beaten horses and with some luck could come good at a nice price.

BET SUMMARY >  EW on AUDACIA at decent odds , may well regress and come stone last but i think it can out run its price here ( 35/65% )

RESULT >
1. FLINTRY Wins @ 2.60 ( Audacia back in 5th beaten 3L Neck n a Head
2.
3.

Finally we have the Win 10,000,000 On Betdaq Colossus Chester Stakes (Listed Handicap)..which just sees a few old hands battle each other again over an uninteresting 1m5f....and im simply going to suggest NOBLE SILK as it only really tired in the last furlong lto over 1m6f and in  a much better race than this and should give a very good account today..poor finale for the days efforts but hey ho...work with whats available....Should be a very interesting day..enjoy and Good Luck.

RESULT >
1. Unplaced as Big Orange WINS......no loss here...
2.

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