Wednesday, 10 September 2014

John Smith's Original Scarbrough Stakes (Listed)

Good Morning One n All ,
                                        Well as you may have noticed ive been a bit quiet of late and that is down to a couple of things , firstly i have been busy with my ppl clients and secondly i couldnt be arsed....plus tbf the racing hasnt been that high a standard and to pour for hours over a race to give a summary with no feedback is a thankless task at the best of times but i do find myself with ten mins free this morning before my midweek round of golf so i thought i would share my thoughts and bet on todays Class 1 event the " Scarborough Stakes " a dash over 5f for all ages and a good prize to take down for those that have been aiming high all season with no luck to finally get a payday.
Is this race full of the same ol same ol racing against each other for the umpteenth time ?..well in most that can be said to be true however we do have something potentially very smart and that is RECKLESS ABANDON.

Reckless Abandon is todays current and likely sp Favourite  ( 3.25 ) and this is in part a price made of potential , juvenile form and a promising comeback race.

Firstly lets look at his Juvenile form ,

1st in his maiden.....nothing special...

1st in the NORFOLK Stakes ( Beating Gale Force Ten easily ).

1st in the PRIX ROBERT PAPIN ( Easily accounting for Sir Prancealot ) .

1st in the PRIX MORNAY ( Easily beating George Vancouver ) .

1st in the MIDDLE PARK ( Easily beating Moojahim ) .

So a brilliant 2 yr old campaign ended victorious which earned him a rather long 7 month break which meant he missed a lot of the top early 3 yr old prizes....

So he comes out a 3 yr old and goes straight into sprinting ( which i found odd ) and his first race after the break was the TEMPLE STAKES a well known hardcore sprinting event and he did very well running 3rd and beaten a Head & Head ....a month later he goes into the KINGS STAND ( another hardcore sprint and its now obvious this will be his route ) but this time he runs a bit green , hanging his head and looking awkward and never travelled quite as well eventually beaten 2 & 1/2L by Sole Power into 5th and then a final 3yr old outing saw him go into the Europes premier Sprint the ABBAYE and in all honesty i thought he ran a great race again coming in 5th but only beaten a Nose , 2L , Neck and a head  ( beat home Sole Power who was 6th ) and that ended what i personally thought was a solid year , no Wins but some very good races against some of the best sprinters Europe has seen....

Now we have a rather long and curious 10 month break ( no injury but must have some training issues ) and a move from Clive Cox to Godolphin so after this extended break he comes out and goes into a rather low strung ( compared to previous ) Listed event and this is over 6f...another odd move and not one i liked and although he ran on for third ( beaten by Tropics > Group 3 type < 1/2L and a Nose ) its has to be said that this is probably not his best trip and if you watch the race whilst all these erstwhile sprinters were flat out or whipping between the 4 and 5 pole Reckless was absolutely tanking and looked different class running up the rail with no cover and looking lost in his own world of class he hit a slight flat spot just after the 5 pole when the front three alongside him made moves and it took him 50 yards to re gather some lost momentum and i think with another 75 yards he would have won as he was powering at the finish.
The run that day was i think to around 110 and he will improve both for the run and the drop back to 5f and this class beast will surely be too good for these trusty sorts who by n large are n better than group 3 or Hcaps although most are useful.
So we have a top rated runner in Steps on 110 who is giving weight away all round and Reckless who ran to that easy level over his least effective trip and first time out after a long break , i think Reckless can run to a level between 115-120 at his peak and i think some saying he has lost his shine are talking bollocks , i think this is still learning and growing and will improve from last run , will motor thru the race and quicken up in the final 1f to show his class and the price will look like a gift afterwards...

SUMMARY : MAX WIN for me on Reckless Abandon as i feel this could be different class to these , yes it looks a decent enough event but if Reckless can finally fulfill some of his potential then i think he has upto 20lb in hand of these...yes thats a big statement to make but thats how i feel about it...  

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