Thursday, 11 September 2014

Japan Racing Association Sceptre Stakes (Fillies' Group 3)

Morning World.....
                           Well yesterday didnt quite work out as i had expected but then again it didnt need to , Firstly Reckless Abandon which was yesterdays Nap got beat  ( run on into 2nd having been up with the pace for most of the race ) and although it was a decent enough run it only ran to around 112 which showed little improvement from its last run and this may now be as good  ( rather disappointingly ) as he is...the Winner Meccas Angel was 2nd top rated by me and unfortunately my blindness to the Fav meant that i did no dutch today ;-(....( Won @ 7/1 > 9.6 ) .....However...on the plus side as i was able to get a much larger than expected 1.7 + for a FAP i did indeed lump onto that with just a small portion ( 30% ) on the nose so i did ok in the end , not brilliant but i come away in one piece...

Thanks George Moorey and Simon Cooper for the comments and sorry today i couldnt get you that win...but as you eluded to this was a selection already on your radars....

What do we have for today ? , well there are some nice races at the Donny Leger meeting and today there are two races which make a fair amount of appeal , the first race is the blog titled Sceptre Stakes.

The SCEPTRE STAKES , a race over 7f for 3 yr old + and this years renewal is as good as any ive come across with a field packed full of potential , form and those wanting to re-establish themselves after some underwhelming shows .
A lot here today are again moving up from sprints to try their respective hands at a prize that is a rarity when you have a mark between 85-100.
The top rated is J Wonder on 109 but in truth there is little to separate the top 7 or 8 of these so the rating is of little consequence here today , what is important today is getting hold of a runner that has proven distance form and will like the ground.
One horse i really like in this is BRAGGING but rather annoyingly its again the Fav at around 3.35 which in truth offers little value and is a point  + lower than he really ought to be as i made this 7/2 which is a good bit higher than the Life Tissue of 5/2 and its current price...
Bragging tho' is a horse on a massive upward curve , won easily lto , loves the ground , loves the trip and stays a bit more , travels well , quickens and stays running on so ticks every box on the card..certainly has the scope , shape and conditions to win but that fucking price is giving me the hump....
So i am going to reluctantly look elsewhere for my bet.... ( Hmmpf ) ...Right ..so....moving on what does interest me is firstly EVITA PERON....this is a filly on the up albeit forgiving a no show lto over in France , is lightly raced and comes from a yard that specialize in these filly events as there is no better trainer of fillies than Ralph Beckett and using Godolphins Wedding Ring as a direct line of form representation then Evita has a few lengths in hand of Bragging and yet the price on the two is Bragging @ 3.35 and Evita Peron @ 25.0....this is a hugeeeee difference on two horse that have shown similar levels of form ...so surely that has to be worth a look...??...

Amazing Maria is another that did fuck all over in France and had a run before when the Dunlop yard was struggling to even the horse boxes to arrive on time so all things being equal it wouldnt be pernicious to expect a much improved show but you are hoping for a lot to happen here but @ 32/1 the price is big enough to get involved without a huge outlay , Finally i think we can mention J WONDER as this won well lto and although prone to dropping in n out of form without warning is a rather capable sort on its day and could easily rustle a few feathers...

SUMMARY : ....I will be having a mixture of WIN & FAP dutches on Evita Peron , J Wonder and Amazing Maria , not huge stakes as i feel Bragging could be special but i want to take it on and have some fun..so im keeping it sensible yet i still think its a solid bet/s.

RESULT : 


2nd Summary to follow on shortly....

So here we go after a wee break for a bite to eat and a walk with the dog we look at today's 2nd race and this is the PARK HILL Stakes a race over 1m6f which is a strange trip and is quite often won by those not really ready or good enough for a tilt at a champions race or classic.
 We have a few " interesting " runners here and i think it prudent that we start with SEAL OF APPROVAL a horse that arrives in form that would suggest he has been on a slow burn thru the season and has probably had this as his main aim , three runs thus far that look like it has been a program designed to build and strengthen with its last run in the Geoffrey Freer a pretty decent warm up for this running 3rd and steaming at the finish  ( shorter trip than todays ) all in all i think this has been laid out for the event and will run a big race and the 4.7 is only a fair price.

Melrose Abbey is an interesting filly from the Beckett yard , lightly raced and open to bags of improvement this daughter of Selkirk should enjoy this test and with a couple of victories under her belt she has shown a tenacity that many lack and this could indeed run into a place.

There is another group of 5 horses that will have their parts to play with any capable of winning and this group is Energia Fox , Venus Di Milo , Arabian Comet , Criteria and Silk Sari with probably the most to come from the Botti runner.

SUMMARY : This is a tough race to call with so many with chances and so many variables in play however the fact i can still get Even's the FAP on Seal of Approval is great so i am rowing in with a level return dutch FAP with SOA & Energia Fox.

RESULT : Not even a cheque book and Pen from me today.... ( those old enough will understand this ) 

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