Thursday, 18 September 2014

Dubai Duty Free Cup (Listed) (Str) < 16:40 Newbury >

Afternoon / Morning / Evening / Early Evening / Dusk /Dawn /Mid Morning , tea time  etc..ALL ,

 Well its fair to say that last weekend didnt quite go to plan after a very poor ride from the fucknut that is known as Joseph O Brien ( Australia coming 2nd ) and just about everything else going wrong..." one of those weekends " i hear you scream and in truth ..it was and then some...so done pretty much fuck all this week other than spend time driving round in my car in the hope i could speed up Global Warming and kill us all in a Tsunami of bullshit......

So as i gently move into the weekend i see that we have a semi decent card on at Newbury which also has a Listed Class 1 for me to look at.

This race over 7f for 3 + years is a monster for both punters and analysts in truth as it is as wide open a race as you will find on the plus side the winner will be a nice price regardless of where you look as you can make this 5/1 the field quite easily , on the downside it bunches up the prices of the middle order which is where you will lose some implied value so better check those ratings...

CD Winner GLEN MOSS has to come into the reckoning arriving here in form and at 6.2 looks a fair price although it does around 3L to find with the fav Absolutely So,
In fact the Fav at its current price is a stone bonking LAY certainty and has to bet against at 2.20 as this is a ludicrously low price.....And i WILL be MAX laying this.
Safety Check is probably the class here but at 3.60 offers little for a horse that often fails to shine.
" IF " Magnus Maximus can recapture its best form then its a live chance but again the price offers nothing even at 11.50 , LADY LARA is one i like and this unlucky sort has plenty of ability and with a clear run could easily make the frame and/or win but again the price at 5.0 is very unappealing.

This race has often been won by a horse that had previously disappointed in better races and come to life for this and quite often doing little after and Both Glen Moss and Safety Check fill that box but as discussed they offer nothing so we will have to look or at least think outside the box.

Sirius Prospect is one that could Win if in the right mood but is a rather poor 7.2 and Miracle of Medinah is only just in double figures...which is leaving me scratching my head ?!?!....i would have probably done a dutch Fap on them if they were correctly priced but there is no Juice  so it looks like just the LAY bet for me....

RESULT : LADY LARA IS 1st @ 8.0 ( My kinda price for her in this ) and the 2.68 Fav Absolutely So was absolutely thrashed and was unplaced ;-))...some nice Boomage to get me rolling into the weekend...

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