Friday, 1 August 2014

Markel Insurance Nassau Stakes (British Champions Series) (Fillies' Group 1)

Afternoon All ,
...well we had a thrilling day yesterday and for me it was a bit more profit in the pocket as Not only did my Saver bet on Pethers Moon Win but Encke ran who ran a solid race to come 2nd after 685 days off hit 2.98 in the run from a BFSP of 8.55 and i traded out at 3.0 so just got in there.

We move into the final day of what has been a grand ol week of racing from the Sussex Downs and we have just the one GP1 to look at but its a corker , The " Nassau " is a good quality race that trainers take affection to as Sir HRAC won it three years running with the gutsy Midday and previously had been won twice on the spin by the coolmore mafia and most recently the last two runnings have been won by Senor Gosden so who will take their turn today well rather Sadly Sir HRAC is no longer with us and his wife Julie doesnt have anything entered up so it looks like it could be O'Brien with the one runner and Gosden with two.

Racing over this 1m1f will be within every runners compass as most have been tried , tested or campaigned over further with only the ground the likely boost factor for some.

Venus Di Milo is a nice looking daughter of Duke of Marmalade and has run some solid races in defeat most notably lto when out stayed by Thistle Bird and previously when outgunned by the Fugue so looks to have the ability to a point but i think those runs are at the upper end of what she can achieve and although heavily backed for this ( Backed in from 9/2 > 5/2 , although no serious coin has been put down on Betfair @ 3.60 )  ) i think there are one or two with a bit more scope and with just about a better chance, its not to say she cant or wont win but i can see her getting placed and run out it once again.

Mango Diva has her own form and a line through Thistle Bird which gives her an almost identical profile and chance yet is double the price which isnt so much a negative for her but does look skinny on  Venus Di Milo
Mango herself is no great shakes and rated 106 is another i feel is about as good as she is going to be, a labored performer with no real turn of foot but does stay on rather dourly and could surprise if the race fell in her lap but with the opposition in place i feel that wont be the case.

Amazing Maria ran terribly in the Oaks and im sure something must have been amiss as she is rated highly in the yard and looked very progressive last term but i cannot wager on hope alone so is overlooked.

Lustrous is another that performed woefully lto but did run rather well in the Ribbelsdale before that and won the Micheal Seeley quite tidily so could def get into the mix here but is she good enough..well i again dont think so but if the race tactics fall her way she can take advantage of any breaks but will probably need a career best..not out of the question just highly unlikely.

Eastern Belle for Gosden Won well lto and has a solid profile but she only beat two runners both rated 93 and although good in the contect of that race she will have to improve again by 10-15lbs here to just make the frame and i would say this is most unlikely ( the win ) a nice horse but not shown herself to be upto this although looking at Fridays Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes where the 1st & 2nd had stepped up from Hcaps to easily beat the field that had classic placed form that is not always but quite often the case where one or two can make the jump into pattern company , cant easily dismiss but dismissed none the less.

SULTANINA is one i like , progressive profile and on the upward curve although her stamina may have been stretched lto this drop back in trip will suit very much and her win in the Pinnacle Stakes looks very good in the context of this race as the three behind were rated 100/99/104 which is bang where she needs to be to get competitive here and the horse ( Pomology ) that beat her lto by just over 2L is rated 110 which makes her easily good enough to win and the current 5.40 looks an attractive price and it certainly enough to get me interested.

Finally we look at NARNYIN from France and a superbly bred daughter of Dubawi who has raced mainly at Group level but has been beaten quite easily in some of these which includes a thrashing by Spiritjim where Noble Mission was a Neck 2nd and a run like that sees her back on the first ferry home she will have to run right to her peak , show a liking for the fast ground and get to grips with Goodwood all of which make for just two many unanswered questions and variables to be interested

Bet Summary : I would say on pure form Venus Di Milo is probably the one to beat but the price is poor in consideration for her opponents and with that i am going to go in with a level stake Dutch on MANGO DIVA & SULTANINA both of whom imo hold strong chances and enough scope to outperform their market strength ( 6.0 & 6.0 )

RESULT : BooooooooooM as SULTANINA WINS @ 7.54 ;-))

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