Saturday, 7 July 2012

Happy Weekend Folks

Hello all hope you have all had a good productive week i know i have but i needed the last two races yesterday to save me.....had a great week upto Fri then Yesterday everything just went against me , the ground was making things difficult and some right old odd balls went in.....but i chanced my arm on a last race double with Rosslairie/Breezolini and singled them as well and they both won at 11/2 & 3/1 ..Phew!!....Just about dug me out of the large hole i had fallen into!.
The weather as we are all to painfully aware is just fecking hideous , Rain Rain and more Rain although as i type the sun is briefly out but with dark clouds all around this wont last for long as from 11am its forecast a day of rain and storms , this is just amazing who would have thought our Summers could have got worse and to cap it off its muggy as fuck..ggrr.
With this appalling weather comes terrible ground conditions and quite often the form book is useless with most horses finding it impossible to quicken sufficiently off it.
So what is the Plan for today? well for me a steady Sandown card seems in order with some interesting races it should be quite entertaining , good luck to all that play today , see ya on the FB Page.

SANDOWN

RACE 1
BACK - ROCKY REEF - 2nd @ 6.60
EW - JOHNNO - 1st @ 4.41
OUTSIDER - N/A -
*Well a shocking start to the card as overnight two thirds of the field have withdrawn ( probably due to the ground ) and with most of the remainder either untried over the trip or the ground i feel these two offer the safest route to profitsville , i quite like RR here and also have him in my HCE Sat tipping comp he is proven in the soft/heavy conditions he likes the trip , can quicken off a poor surface and is some form so he ticks all the boxes for me , Johnno is frustrating as he is not without ability.
______________________________________________
RACE 2

BACK - JUDGE n JURY -
EW - FREE ZONE - 3rd @ 24.92
OUTSIDER - CALEDONIA LADY - 1st @ 14.3
*An incredibly tough race to select a winner from, these big field sprints are treacherous at the best of times and today is maybe a time for the magic pin!!....i do like Caledonia Lady who is due a change in fortunes and should get a more proficient ride from the lovely Hayley Turner today , this often meets trouble and does have a habit of making life hard for itself with a clear run and a better ride i expect this to grab a place at least today.
Judge N Jury also looks set to run a big race after traversing the step up in grade with ease and is remarkably consistent for a sprinter.
Free Zone could prove hard to pass and has recorded some decent speed ratings and ofc we have Elnawin..hmm..decisions decisions....
The current fav Spirit Quartz i cannot have at all and will be laying.
As we know with sprinters quite often they take it in turns winning and you do get some ridic price winners popping up and with the likes of humidor and confessional in the field pretty much anything could happen.
______________________________________________
RACE 3

BACK - TRADE COMMISSIONER* - 1st @ 3.61
EW - SPA'S DANCER - 3rd @ 10.85
OUTSIDER - STAGE ATTRACTION -
*Things dont get any easier now with a 17 runner 1m Hcap and most have form lines entitling them to some sort of a chance and we have a relatively short priced fav in Trade Commissioner who hacked up lto but at 3.55 and with slower ground this has to be taken on and is my LOTD today in such a big competitive field on tacky ground look elsewhere for the winner.
But where one might ask , well i do like the look of Spa's Dancer but this is going to a be huge trader for me as in its last three races it come first, then 2nd but hit 1.03 and again 2nd but hit 1.33 , this travels sweetly thru its races but just lacks a bit of heart.
I also like Captain Bertie and Stage Attraction but tbh i could write a list 10 deep of what could win and why this is a true pinstickers race , the best bet here is to lay the fav imo.
*Although its my LOTD it is also the top rated and cannot be left out of the selection box , but as stated i will be Laying this and NOT backing.
______________________________________________
RACE 4

BACK - *STARSCOPE -
EW - ARSAADI -
OUTSIDER - BANU WU - 3rd @ 25.0
*Now we move onto something a bit classier and we have the DISTAFF stakes a 1m Fillies only Listed race and we do have a few interesting runners here most notably Starscope who is miles clear from a form perspective but does have the look and feel of one that will never be the bride and at odds on im happy to take this on.
Kunooz is interesting but Falls of Lora is easily dismissed , Arsaadi could be ripe for a win and looks an improver whilst i cannot see Ladys First reversing Sandringham running and Banu Wu and Kinnetica are not without a chance but must improve , on all known form *Starscope could and should easily win this but with the ground and the price so poor with questions to answer i have to look elsewhere.
1stFalls Of Lora14/1
2ndLadys Firsthd5/1
3rdBana Wus.h20/1
______________________________________________
RACE 5
( Speed ratings selections )
BACK - NATHANIEL - 1st 4.61
EW - FARHH - 2nd @ 4.0
OUTSIDER - BONFIRE -
____________
( my personal selections )
BACK - CRACKERJACK KING -
EW - BONFIRE -
OUTSIDER - NATHANIEL - 1st 4.61
____________
*Now we have the BIG RACE the CORAL ECLIPSE and a very interesting race now SYT has retired and withdrawn , i backed FARHH last time out and it had a very tardy start lost a few lengths and had it all to do approaching the final bend but absolutely tanked home and eventually come 2nd to SYT , this has to rate as a good run but i quite often find that these runs are freakish in style and are rarely reproduced and as much as liked it i will not be backing it today.
Where to start with the remainder...my oh my....OK firstly we have Bonfire who i believe is today racing over his best trip and looked a very classy performer when winning the Dante Stakes at York , then we have the battle hardened Twice Over which has won 9 times over this trip on a variety of grounds and has been a true class horse and has been a joy to watch but i feel that it should either step aside or step down in grade now as i feel its just lost that winning edge now.
Next up is Nathaniel a very very good horse and one that i like a lot but i personally feel that this 1m2f is the absolute minimum and the race could go two ways, firstly true race , good pace and they stack up with 2f to go and Nath' has a very good chance of destroying em or run at a false pace due to the ground and it turns into a last 2f dash and Nath could get outsprinted  as its stride is not conducive to such a finish , this said all this is taken on trsust as it hasnt run yet this year and its fitness and state should be seen in the paddock before jumping in , i have heard a few whispers that Nath' has not been doing much on the Gallops and is still behind in his work ( poss fitness issues ) which does concern me a bit....no smoke without fire and all that....this is probably the one i most want to win but do i think it will win?....like a few others it has a chance and until i see it in the flesh i shall reserve the highest of judgements.
Cityscape and Monterosso are both good horses that are very capable on their day and bring to the table some very interesting Meydan form and both are entitled to the upmost respect more so Cityscape because the mercurial Doyle is riding and is a jockey i like and respect greatly.
Now , finally ...my choice and my pick at a fair price is CRACKERJACK KING ( currently 9.2 ) this imo has been overlooked but look deeper and study the form , Its beaten Afsare ( winner yesterday ) , its beaten RELIABLE MAN ( French Derby winner ) , its beaten Sri Putra ( racing today ) by 10 lengths in a group 1 in Campanelle with the German Derby winner well beaten , this has some rock solid form and is obviously very useful and now with the equally useful Marco Botti i think this could run a massive race and maybe even cause a minor shock today.
______________________________________________
RACE 6

BACK - CHILBERTA KING -
EW - AIM TO PROSPER - 2nd @ 14.8
OUTSIDER - N/A -
*Now we have the Coral Marathon a 2m slog that will take some getting today and quite simply i feel CHILBERTA KING has again been laid out for this after winning it last year with old foe Aim to Prosper looking to be the main danger as the remainder either have it to prove over the trip or just dont look good enough , Thimaar looks a banker lay and looks well below this level ( Unplaced ).
______________________________________________
RACE 7

BACK - N/A -
EW - FORTIETH AND FIFTH ( EW NAP ) - Unplaced ;-((
OUTSIDER - N/A -
*And finally a very tough looking med field 1m2f Hcap to round the day off and a tough race to have as the " getting out " stakes but we do have a horse that interests me greatly FORTIETH AND FIFTH this is again and rather luckily being ridden by Hayley as i expected her to lose the ride after it was punted on lto and was given a shocking ride however the owners have decided to give her a 2nd chance and a chance to make amends and trust me Hayley will be going all out for the win on this , this is personal and i simply cannot believe that this will not place and is my EW NAP for today.

______________________________________________

Have a great day and dont forget to lump on the FED EXPRESS tmrw....that will be nimps!!

Translate

Copy Halt