Saturday, 28 July 2012

Well its all Kicked off....

The Olympics that is and tbh it was quite a decent Opening Ceremony with some good skits and sketches and some poignant reminders of what its like to be British , all in all a good performance and talking of good performances i was very happy with the start of my new betting / blogging regime as the posted races ran pretty much as i had thought although the epic drift 1.59 - 2.62 on Fleeting Smile altered the bet structure on that race it was still a good profit race as i had a good trade on Flawless Beauty ( backed at 30.0 and traded at 3.0 ) which come 2nd and a good lay in the race and Moones my Name ( which lost 7 L at the start ) ran on for 3rd ( 3 places paid on Betfair ) gave me another Profit but the real wins came over at Thirsk where i had a 18.0 winner in the first and Carlton Blue at 9.0 in the 2nd ( so wished i had doubled them ) as well as 2 other big priced ( 27.0 and 29.4 ) placed efforts returning some very nice profits the only race i suffered a small loss on was with Qannaas ( 2nd ) but managed to trade a profit in both the Photy market and the stewards ;-) so all in all yesterday i had a bet in or traded 11 races and had 11 wins so cant complain.
Today the qualifying races are spread across the board like this ,
YORK : 2 races the 15:10 & the 16:20
ASCOT : 1 race the 15:25
NEWMARKET : 1 race the 14:15
NEWCASTLE : 1 race the 13:55
This gives us a total today of 5 Races to aim at and i shall cover them all here and hopefully nab a winner or two ;-)....

YORK 15:10
This is a Group 2 ( Class1 ) 1m2f stakes race that looks competitive and is full of horses that have this season thus far either under performed , not carried their form , been disappointing , not trained on or not had conditions to suit....yes the list of excuses for most is very long.
AFSARE has to have a leading chance racing on ground it has won on multiple times , is in form , has solid recent form and comes primed for a big run and although it won lto its best runs were the earlier ones coming 4th and my only concern is the start as it quite often seems to have trouble upon leaving the stalls which is frustrating so you may wanna cross your fingers if your on this.
JET AWAY's Victory over Fiorente reads very well now and on that form must be given a shout although there is something about this beast that makes me want to swerve it every time ( certainly at this level ).
The remainder of the field are pretty much of a muchness with so many having had great victories in the past and some dazzling form to show in their respective scrap books its hard what to make of them , Premier Loco , Wigmore Hall , Hunters Light , Plantuer , Ransom Note , Sri Putra...the list is a long one and any of these could chuck a dream ride in a wide open affair.

CONCLUSION : On the balance of current form and probable improvement this looks a duel between Afsare and Jet Away and a dutch on these two is a solid looking bet that i couldnt talk anyone out of however i will be having a speculative EW punt on PREMIER LOCO who has only raced over this trip twice and both times it was in the winter Derby at Lingfield being beaten a Nose the first time and Winning the 2nd and is a lot more consistent than a few of the others and at 17.0 looks a fair bet ( may well dutch the three thinking on ;-)).


Full Result

1st (4)10 Sri PutraR Varian69-2 hbN Callan12/1
Held up behind in touch, headway over 2f out, ridden to challenge over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, stayed on to lead towards finish opened 17/2 £5000-£500
2nd (1)nkAfsareL M Cumani59-2K Fallon9/4f
Held up in touch on inside, headway over 2f out, soon challenged, led and edged right inside final 2f, ridden when hard pressed inside final furlong, edged left and headed towards finish opened 3/1 £6000-£2000 £1500-£500
3rd (7)Side GlanceA M Balding59-2J Fortune6/1
Raced keenly, tracked leader, effort and every chance over 2f out to 1f out, kept on same pace in 3rd final furlong
4th (11)Jet AwaySir H R A Cecil59-2T P Queally7/2
Dwelt, held up in rear, switched towards stands side rail and headway over 2f out, ridden and effort when hampered over 1f out, swtched left inside final furlong, kept on opened 9/2 touched 3/1

YORK 16:20
Now we have a tasty looking maiden with most of the field having garnered some experience and they newcomers can all be discounted bar Khelman ( check Fahey tab ) which is quite highly thought of at home and has been showing good speed on the gallops and has attracted some early support at fancy prices this could well be worth an EW tickle.
BACOTHEQUE should be winning soon judged on his races to date , lto he raced on the wrong side and led that group a merry ol dance but couldnt reel in the near side leader and went down by 2L given how that race panned out that was a very good  run and i would be shocked if this isnt winning sooner rather that later and today could well be the day.
AJMANY is another that is well thought of and was a beaten odds on fav lto behind subsequent winner Hasopops but that was a slowly run affair and today the emphasise will be on speed and this should be more to his liking.
BURNING BLAZE is my LOTD @ 3.5 as it raced over 7f and on soft ground fto and has far too many questions to answer against more reliable yardsticks , i simply cannot understand why this is fav?.
Dark Opal as highlighted by Jason Coote from HCE is one that could run a fair race at huge odds and could be one for the traders.

CONCLUSION : On the balance of form shown and forward potential i think the two main protagonists BACOTHEQUE and AJMANY should have this between them but dont discount good runs from either Khelman or Dark Opal , BURNING BLAZE has to be laid imo.


Full Result

1st (5)Burning BlazeK A Ryan29-3P Makin11/4c
opened 3/1 touched 5/2 £1000-£400
2nd (8)1Cour ValantNoel Quinlan29-3N Callan33/1
3rd (2)10 MedicoeSir Mark Prescott29-3L Morris8/1
touched 17/2
4th (3)Ajmany (IRE)L M Cumani29-3K Fallon11/4c
opened 9/4

ASCOT 15:25
This is a small field Group 3 ( Class 1 ) over 6f for 2 yr olds and i am Really keen on the hot fav MAUREEN from the hannon stable , this won head in chest fto then ran really well in the Cherry Hinton ( 2nd ) and looks to be a very smart prospect indeed.
Hoyam looks to be the main danger and could be one for the F/C.

CONCLUSION : MAUREEN all the way for me , i will be very surprised if this doesnt win although it will have to work hard for it.


Full Result

1st (1)Maureen (IRE)R Hannon28-12R Hughes5/6f
Prominent, keen hold, led over 1f out, drew clear inside final furlong, comfortably opened 5/6 touched 10/11 £500-£550
2nd (3)Sandreamer (IRE)M R Channon28-12Martin Harley11/1
Held up in rear, headway over 1f out, soon switched right to challenge, not pace of winner opened 10/1 touched 11/1
3rd (2)HoyamM L W Bell28-12J P Spencer5/2
Steadied start, headway to lead after 2f, headed over 1f out, one pace touched 11/4

This is one tough looking maiden with all the big boys in attendance and shall have to refer to my breeding notes....( flicks thru the pages )....and upon reading i have deduced that only about 6 runners fit the profile required for winning this 7f affair and i feel the winner will come from the following group , #
ERSAAL @ 3.95
GO FAR @ 36.0
RHOMBUS @ 22.0
So we have the two early and likely favourites mixed with some rather fancy prices and this looks like a Win / Place Dutching  race to me.

CONCLUSION : This does appear at first glance to be a fight between the two leading Arab horses and a dutch win on those two looks a very strong bet but dont be surprised if something pops up here at a fancy price i would also surmise that the more stoutly bred horses will struggle as this will be all about whoever is the most forward and pace , the best horse may well not win this.


Full Result

1st (12)13 Timoneer (USA)M Al Zarooni29-3M Barzalona11/4f
2nd (13)nkBlue Wave (IRE)M Al Zarooni29-3Antioco Murgia (5)12/1
3rd (8)¾Bright Strike (USA)

Another maiden but this looks a rather scrappy affair tbh with a few having had a run and most showing very little.
Ouzinkie has had a few tries and is upped in trip but i would be rather surprised if others didnt improve past him and this will be laid.
I am however quite keen on the Dods pair DENTON SKYLINE and BEAT THE TIDE with the latter having shown up well on soft ground i would expect a much improved run today and the former out of Celtic Swing.
INOVATE should also run a lot better now with a bit of experience after finishing down the field in a hot York maiden and it is trained by the currently red hot T Easterby.

CONCLUSION : I think on form BEAT THE TIDE should and will take all the beating here but with most set to improve from their first run like Bains Pass and Inovate this is rather a tricky one to call and you cannot be over confident about any and for betting purposes i will be having a PLACE only Dutch on the two Easterby runners INOVATE & SURROUND SOUND @ around 4.0 each.


Full Result

1st (9)Beat The TideM Dods28-11P Mulrennan9/4f
Held up in touch, headway over 2f out, riddden to chase leader approaching final furlong, edged left inside final furlong, stayed on to lead towards finish touched 2/1
2nd (4)¾11 Surround SoundT D Easterby28-9D Fentiman16/1
With leaders, led 3f out, ridden and strongly pressed inside final furlong, headed and outstayed towards finish opened 14/1
3rd (1)Ouzinkie (IRE)M R Channon28-11S Hitchcott9/2
Went left start, chased leaders, ridden 2f out, stayed on under pressure inside final furlong, not pace of leading duo opened 4/1 touched 7/2


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