Friday, 27 July 2012

Back to Basics...

Morning all , pfft thats all i can say as this has been one tough week , make £10 - Lose £20  , make £30 - Lose £40 and so on.....its been a grind but the day ended with a flourish yesterday and after analysing the races that went wrong for me i have decided that for the whole of August ( and maybe more ) and starting from today i am only going to get involved in the races that historically i have specialised in namely Maidens ( all ages ) and Group / Class 1's this will on any normal day give me enough  to aim at ( will revert back to Maiden/Juvenile Hurdle's , NHF and Group 1 Equiv for the NH ) and looking through todays cards i can see a plethora of races that require my attention , thinning out the races will allow me more time to focus and concentrate and hopefully iron out the more erroneous selections and hopefully put a stop to me getting involved in races where i dont have a strong opinion and usually end up losing money.
I have spent the last 6 years tracking and following breeding and have compiled a rather sturdy Breeding database which i will now use more i will when the occasion follows also " tip " any Stable horses from our group of friends, owners and trainers.
Nothing is ever Guaranteed but i do feel i may have been spreading myself a bit thin , the Investor accounts and general portfolio is going well however my own personal betting bank has been hammered this last week and i need to rectify that , hopefully i can still give you the readers and followers the odd winner and some helpful advice and contribute towards some profit making.
So ,...let the Journey begin....

ASCOT ( 2 Qualifying races ) 

1.14:20 - These are usually well contested races with a fair bit of blue blood flowing although some say that Ascot is a bit too quirky for 2yr olds i say bollocks....left or right , up or down sweeping bends and deep cambers....they should all act but just to differing degrees the real area of adjustment should only be found on a flat, straight course with gd/gd-firm ground.....that then becomes a truer test of a horses pace and speed , anyway moving onto this race ( after the ramble ) i wasnt over impressed with the run of Fleeting Smile fto http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/08-06-2012/newmarket/result/503049/lloyds-tsb-commercial-e-b-f-maiden-fillies-39-stakes/video. if you look you will see they were flat out and all bar the winner were off the bridle fully 2f from home and were spread out like washing on a line , the winner newfangled has since ran and won the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot which itself makes the form look spectacular but Newfangled won very easy and those behind are imo at this juncture just very average and @ 1.59 i am most certainly not interested in this at all and with it racing prominently it offers little interest as a LTB so what about a BTL...possibly  but again if it gets a bad or tardy start the trade value will go so either an outright lay or leave alone.
What else can win?/...Well Close at Hand has a royal pedigree and is bred to be very useful and this trip should be ideal , Flawless Beauty is a sister to Aiden oBriens Wrote which is useful although quirky , and the rest all look to have stayers pedigree's suggesting this trip may well be the minimum for them and they " may " lack the pre requisite pace.
Conclusion : 1.59 is just too short a price for most horses in most maidens and this just didnt look that great but the paucity of honest opposition means that its a tough call to look elsewhere , my thoughts are that Backing CLOSE AT HAND in the PLACE market @ 1.93 is a better bet than betting on Fleeting Smile to Win at 1.59.****Drifted out to 2.62 Just before the off , this obviously alters the selection process somewhat****

RESULT : 

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (4)Fleeting Smile (USA)R Hannon29-0T P O'Shea11/8f
Made virtually all, edged right off near side rail inside final 2f, soon ridden, stayed on well inside final furlong opened 11/10 touched 9/10 £500-£500
2nd (2)1Flawless BeautyH Palmer29-0M Hills14/1
Held up, headway on outside halfway, went 2nd 3f out, ridden to challenge over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong, always held
3rd (6)110 Summer DreamM Botti29-0T E Durcan4/1
Chased leaders, switched right off near side rail 2f out, soon ridden, hung right over 1f out, stayed on same pace in 3rd final furlong opened 6/1
4th (10)Close At HandJ H M Gosden29-0William Buick3/1
Ran green on near side rail lost place and dropped to rear after 1f, switched right to outside and headway halfway, green but stayed on to 4th over 1f out opened 11/2
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2.15:30 ( Class 1 Woodcote Stakes )
Just the 7 fillies line up and quite a tightly grouped bunch they are with only Villeneuve being readily discounted.
Free Verse is also discounted on the grounds of Trip.
Moones my Name is most Interesting as not only is it a multiple distance winner but R Hughes has decided to ride this instead of Free Verse for the Queen and His boss R Hannon.....Maybe thats a clue in itself??...Thistle Bird is an obvious improver but does suffer from temperament problems and may well not be the most resolute in a battle and with the top four only separated by hair widths this i wouldnt want to be fighting my cause.
I love Me looks well held on recent form with no reason for it to be reversed, Night Lily is probably just not good enough which leaves Beatrice Aurora a Filly that has been competing in group 3's and listed pretty much exclusively and has some very fine runs to her credit although the stable form does somewhat temper enthusiasm with just 1 win with his last 30 runners and just 3 placed from his last 20....so until the yard shows some revival then i think this is best swerved ( may well be the best horse but stable is so out of form i cant get into it ).
Conclusion : With R Hughes riding MOONES MY NAME instead of a Queens horse for his boss , with the horses own form and outright standing i think @ 5.8 this is a cracking EW bet ( or place only ) and has an outstanding chance of gaining some black type today.****Reared at the start and Lost at least 7 Lengths****

RESULT : 

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (5)Thistle BirdR Charlton49-5 hJ Doyle4/1
Tracked leader, led 2f out, ridden clear over 1f out, stayed on strongly touched 7/2
2nd (6)VilleneuveW R Muir38-7Martin Dwyer20/1
Disputing close 3rd, definite 3rd inside final 2f, ridden and stayed on to 2nd inside final furlong, no chance with winner opened 22/1 touched 25/1
3rd (2)hdMoone's My NameR M Beckett49-1R Hughes10/3
Reard badly leaving stalls, took keen hold in rear, pushed along 3f out, ridden and headway inside final 2f, stayed on to 3rd inside final furlong, closed on 2nd nearing finish opened 
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 Over at THIRSK they have 4 qualifying races ( all Maidens ) as well as IRE/UK 10 others.....if anyone wants a perspective on the remainder then get in touch, have a great day , be lucky , ttfn x

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