Tuesday, 12 March 2013

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL - DAY 2

Evening All , wow wow and wow what an amazing first day!!! , i made money on every race , hit a monster Treble with Simonsig/Quevega/Hurricane Fly and generally had a bloody good day!..( im obv v happy )  but what a battering the bookies took..ouch..with some very well fancied runners scooting in , what ever happens now This will be a profitable Festival as all the main damage has been done but im hopeful of more as i still have a few aces to play ;)).....
Performance of the day?? : Imo i would have to say Quevega winning , looked beat when slipping on the turn , got outpaced but rallied like a star , i was so impressed by that , The " Fly " also looked beat but then 2f later was back on the bridle , strange but impressive and Simonsig jumped poorly but got away it but my NAP My Tent Or Yours was done for toe up the hill and come 2nd to the impressive Champagne Fever a horse i backed and tipped last year in the bumper and i also had some cover on this year , that was a very good race.

Onto Day 2 and more fun n games are gteed but can i still nail a few winners, well lets take a look...

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CHELTENHAM - DAY 2

RACE 1 : GODSMEJUDGE

John Oaksey National Hunt Chase (Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase)

.This is a fucking nightmare start tbh...a 4m Chase , a tough , grueling battering ram of a race compounded by the fact its for Amats!!....Ridic hard does not cover this....you will need a Magic Pin and some Fairy Like luck to get anything out of this...But lets try..lets look at some stats..
1.The National Hunt Challenge Cup opens the second day of racing at the Festival and it has been run more times than any other race at Cheltenham. It was established in 1860 and it is a real test of endurance.
It involves a gruelling distance of 4 miles and there are 24 fences to be jumped, and the race is open to novice chasers aged five years and over. 7-year-olds have enjoyed great success in the race in the past but it is Jonjo O'Neill who is the stand out trainer - the Irishman has claimed five winners, including three successive winners from 2002 to 2004, to make him the most successful trainer in the race's long history..

And thats all i have lol......Lets look at the horses involved , Tofino Bay has to be on the Short list as its being steered by a fav of mine Nina Carberry but also a horse with a decent level of form and winning form , has no problem with the ground and should show up well.
Patrick Mullins takes the reins on Back in Focus for his dad the maestro Willie Mullins and this is chasing a 4 timer after winning its last 3 races over 3m and has been winning on stamina sapping Heavy Going and i think this has quite a lot going for it today however i will be rowing in with who i personally feel is the best Jockey in this race and someone that imo is as good as any pro and that is Nick De Boinville and hes on GODSMEJUDGE a horse that has won over 3m2f and has won on soft and heavy going and was not stopping lto and looks an out n out stayer and i feel this can give nick his 1st Cheltenham Festival winner and the first of many as i feel this lad will have be having a long career however it must be said that this is as wide open a race as you will ever see.

WIN : GODSMEJUDGE - 3rd @ 8.50
EW - BACK IN FOCUS - 1st @ 3.40
LONG - TOFINO BAY - 2nd @ 12.30

SUMMARY : A stupidly tough race and one that should attract a bet that consists of no more than some loose change found in the back of the sofa!..Good Luck ( EW DUTCH for me )
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RACE 2 : THE NEW ONE : 1st @ 4.54

Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (Registered As The Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle) (Grade 1)

On paper this looks super competitive but dig deep and i think quite a few of these have form flaws and a few have form figures that flatter and there is only 4 in this race that really interest me.
1.THE NEW ONE

2.TAQUIN DU SEUIL

3.PONT ALEXANDRE

4.CHATTERBOX

Now the first mentioned The New One is a good looking sort that holds rock solid form with the run behind At Fishers Cross as good as anything on offer as it may come to light that AFC is a very very smart sort indeed , loves the ground and stays and stays and has the added bonus of being a CD winner , this is probably the "ONE " to beat.
TDS ( Nos 2 ) also boasts some useful form in particular the unlucky 2nd to My Tent or Yours and is another gteed to be staying on up the hill and this will be critical ( shown several times today ) and i think this will be hanging off the coat tails of The New One and they will have a battle royale in the last 2f.
Pont Alexandre is the Class from Ireland and comes here with a reputation taller than the Empire State building and has backed this up with some very decent looking performances but its my opinion that this has beaten fuck all thus far and still a horse of hype over substance and on that basis is overlooked.
That leaves CHATTERBOX who beat My Tent or Yours far more comfortably that The New One and also ran what i perceived to be a very smart race when beating Lac Fontana cosily lto however it is untried over this trip which i find a wee bit disconcerting and that brings me back to THE NEW ONE who i will be backing by default , i fancy Chatterbox but my money has to go on TNO but then at 5.8 & 13.5 i think the Dutch is a solid bet but Pont Alexandre is too short at 2.36 and is also imo a good LAY...decisions...

I think the LAY on PONT ALEXANDRE at 2.36 is THE  bet to make here and thats what i shall be doing even tho the Irish wont hear of defeat.

STATS :

2013 Neptune Novices' Hurdle Trends

Wednesday 13th March - 14:05 - Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle - Grade 1 - 2m5f
  • Twenty-three of the last twenty-six winners have had at least three runs over the hurdles.
  • Twenty-five of the last twenty-seven winners were in the top six of the betting for this race.
  • Twenty-eight of the last twenty-nine winners finished in the top two on their most recent start before the festival.
  • Ex-bumper horses head ex-flat horses 12-2 in the last fourteen runnings.
  • Six year olds have won on twelve occassions in the last nineteen runnings, including last year with Simonsig.
  • There has only been one winner aged over six in the last 39 years.
  • The Irish have won this race in five of the last ten renewals.
  • The Navan Novices' Hurdle, Deloitte Novices' Hurdle and Royal Bond Novices' Hurdle have been good form guides.

Neptune Novices' Hurdle Form

The Neptune Investment Novices' Hurdle is the second race run on the second day of the Cheltenham Festival, run over two and a half miles. Formally known as the Ballymore Properties, this novice hurdle was won in 2012 by the Nicky Henderson trained Simonsig. The following races are recognised as trials for the Neptune Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle

ResultCheltenham - 18th Nov 2012AgeJockeyTrainer
1stConeygree 8/15M BatchelorM Bradstock
2ndBondage 4/15A McCoyG Elliott
3rdAccording To Trev 10/16S Twiston-DaviesN Twiston-Davies
This was an impressive win for the half brother of Carruthers, who won by seven lengths against some promising novices. The five year old could well prefer the three miles of the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival.

Navan Novice Hurdle

ResultNavan - 16th Dec 2012AgeJockeyTrainer
1stPont Alexandre 3/14R WalshW Mullins
2ndBusty Brown 8/16P CarberryN Meade
5 ran
Willie Mullins' four year old routed the field which included the odds on favourite Don Cossack.

Challow Novices' Hurdle

ResultNewbury - 29th Dec 2012AgeJockeyTrainer
1stTaquin Du Seuil 13/8F5A McCoyJ O'Neill
2ndEaster Day 9/24N SchofieldP Nicholls
6 ran
This was an easy nine length win for the favourite who is now amongst the market leaders for the Cheltenham contest come March.

Introductory Hurdle

ResultNewbury - 29th Dec 2012AgeJockeyTrainer
1stChatterbox 5/14B GeraghtyN Henderson
2ndMy Tent Or Yours 4/11F5A McCoyN Henderson
3rdBest Boy Barney 40/16N SchofieldJ Scott
Chatterbox beat his stablemate and odds on favourite My Tent Or Yours, who hated the ground.

32red Tolworth Hurdle

ResultSandown - 5th Jan 2013AgeJockeyTrainer
1stMelodic Rendezvous 7/27N SchofieldJ Scott
2ndPendra 6/15N FehilyC Longsdon
7 ran
This was a good display from the winner, who is more likely to run in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle over the Neptune.

Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle

ResultCheltenham - 26th Jan 2013AgeJockeyTrainer
1stAt Fishers Cross 13/26A McCoyJ O'Neill
2ndThe New One 4/5F5S Twiston-DaviesN Twiston-Davies
5 ran
At Fishers Cross defied the odds to outstay the odds on favourite The New One. It's thought that the winner may go to run in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle over three miles.
Check the form for the other main championship races at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival:..

SUMMARY : A good looking race with not a lot splitting the top quad however having proven ability to stay will be definitive imo and thats the key here , The New One is my idea of the winner but for a bet.
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RACE 3 : GOULANES - Unplaced (  But dutch bet Won with a 1st @ 12.8 & 2nd @ 13.20 )

RSA Chase (Grade 1 Novices' Chase)

This is usually a race for the losers of the trials, those not quite top class but too good for hcaps , stable stars being outshone and those that have become disappointing but with potential ( for more disappointment ) and this generally makes it a punters nightmare and all i will be doing here is dutching the roughies 4,5,6,7 and 8 at between 12.0 - 50.0 and have some fun with the race , this is not a race to base fortunes around.
TRENDS :

2013 RSA Chase Trends

Wednesday 13th March - 14:40 - RSA Chase - Grade 1 - 3m
  • The last thirteen winners have all raced at least three times over the timber.
  • Only two six-year-olds have won the RSA Chase since 1978.
  • There has not been a winner over the age of eight since 1992.
  • The last 49 winners all raced during the same calendar year.
  • Twenty-four of the last twenty-five winners either won or finished second on their last run before the festival.
  • The last three favourites to have won the race were rated over 134 as hurdlers.
  • Traditional National Hunt breeds have won nineteen of the last twenty-one renewals.
  • The Dr P J Moriarty Chase is a key trial, as is the Reynoldstown Chase.
  • Seventeen of the last twenty winners were contesting novice hurdles the previous season.
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RESULT : 1st @ 12.80 / 2nd @ 13.20
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RACE 4 : SPRINTER SACRE ( UBER NAP ) - 1st @ 1.26 ( v v v easy )

Sportingbet Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1)

..SPRINTER SACRE...wow that was an easy review....
RESULT :
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RACE 5 : BONDAGE

Coral Cup (Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle)

..A run o the mill hcap now nut a big field which gives it a competitive look however this big field is packed with Dead Wood and i will immediately bring this down to 5 i like and they are ,
1. BONDAGE

2. MEDINAS - 1st @ 39.95

3. MEISTER ECKHART - 2nd @ 19.0

4.ERICHT

5.BUCK MAGIC

Now the first thing you may notice is that there is no Pendra here this is because i feel its form is very weak and is easy to take on, so much so i would recommend a place lay.
Of the Lucky 5 i have selected i dont have any real bias one way or another but as the prices on my fancies are ranged between 17.0 & 46.0 i feel a small stakes Dutch is in order.
If i had to pick one then i would at a pinch probably go with...Bondage....Just.

Notes The Coral Cup is a handicap and there is always a very large field that go to post. The Coral Cup results highlight how difficult a race this for favourites with only one favourite coming home in front in the last 16 years. The Coral Cup is run over 2 miles 5 furlongs the same distance as the Neptune Investment Hurdle earlier in the afternoon.
A reason why this is such a difficult race to win is that there are very few trends that really shout out and that is why reading the Coral Cup Form is tough for the horse racing anoraks as horses of all ages win.
There is no one trainer that has a great record in the race and the only thing that we see looking back at past winner is that horses with a low handicap mark seem to perform well..

RESULT :MEDINAS - 1st @ 39.95
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RACE 6 : PISTOL EW ( 34.0 + ) -

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

Now this is more like it or at least at first glance it looks like a quality renewal but this is another race that has some runners that have form figures they dont really deserve and they look a lot more menacing than they are.
SAPHIR DU RHEU is the one they have to beat as this lost its virginity lto winning a fair race very easily , loves the conditions and easily stays this trip and will be powering home up the famous Cheltenham hill and with so many weak finishers in this race this does look like his to lose however there are 2 or 3 that will make a proper race of it ( for the first 1m4f it will be frantic but it will soon tail off , trust me ) and they are McVICAR from the Alan King yard a very likable sort with any amount of improvement to come but has been found out at the top level and i feel this grade and opposition is about as tough as he wants , certainly in with a good chance of a place but could if improving realy get into the mix but he will have to be at his very best. then we have Zamdy Man another with scope but will have to improve to really get involved but if the improvement is there then a big run is on the cards and Finally we have PISTOL from the Hobbs yard a horse that has already finished ahead of the likely favorite Saphir du Rheu and this comes into the race looking for a hat trick after notching a couple of minor events but in good fashion showing good heart , good pace and with improvement this could be anything tbh and considering the Fav is 8.8 and Pistol is currently 34.0 this is one race where i will take the implied value option the vast difference between the prices makes little sense to me , first of all Saphir imo is if at all only marginally better but both will improve , Pistol has proven his better already and will give you a great run for your money , what would you rather do , take 8.8 for the WIN on the fav Saphir or take the 7.2 for a PLACE ( top 4 and some bookies 5 ) on PISTOL and maybe a small amount on the nose??..for me its a no brainer , big win on the Place with Pistol , small level stakes dutch on Pistol and Saphir du Rheu.
Some Stats...
.Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle Betting
The Fred Winter is a handicap for juveniles of four years of age. This race is all about horses that are improving for each run as they are just novices at the smaller obstacles and it takes time before they mature and become efficient at their jumps.
This is a very tough race for horse racing punters as their are generally over 20 runners and it is a handicap. When looking to narrow down your selection it is useful to look at horses that have won their preceding race before the Cheltenham showdown.
A good Fred Winter Hurdle Tip is to assess the winner of the Supreme the previous day, if it is won by a flat bred horse then the ground is probably on the good side and in all probability the Juvenile winner will have a similar profile. Whereas if the ground is slow you should be looking a National Hunt bread horse..

RESULT : 
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And now its the Finale for Day 2 and a race i have farmed over the years by nailing the winner in each of the last 6 years can i keep this going?????.....
RACE 7 : THE LIQUIDATOR : 4th @ 25.40

Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Standard Open NH Flat Race) (Grade 1)

..All im going to say here is my selection for this race is ....THE LIQUIDATOR , this won nothing more than a paid schooling session lto ( beat 3 runners by 24L in a canter ) but had previously shown a very good attitude when a comfortably beaten 2nd ( 13L back to the third , beaten 5L ) this was here at Cheltenham and has shown he likes the softer going when running on Heavy lto and won its race over 2m1f so gets the trip well , so , you have a progressive sort that stays , likes the course, can finish off up the hill , likes the ground , has a good attitude and a winning mentality and is very highly regarded at home in fact they think this is as good as Liberman ( won this race for them in 2003 ) so it ticks all my boxes and this is another confident wager for me and at its current price of 23.0 allows room for some EW action.

RESULT : 4th
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Another cracking day looks on the cards with some tough hcaps , hard to fathom Juveniles and some Fairy like magic in the shape of the equine brilliance of SPRINTER SACRE , plenty to watch and enjoy , my advice today is have some fun EW Multis / Yankee's etc and pick one or possibly two to try and pay for the day , i will be personally having a bank busting bet on SS to pay for all of my daily wagers and then fingers crossed i can get lucky with a some decent places for a double or treble , GOOD LUCK everyone, have fun and play safe.

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