Thursday, 16 June 2011

Royal Ascot Day 3

A very tough day ensues , the races are hard and very competitive today , a lot of horses in a lot of races where questions need to be answered and trips need to be met...
Its a puzzler thats for sure , i will try to break some of it down , but today, Ascot must be met with in trepidation...
I will also look to see if i can fill in any potholes with cross meeting bets...
Was a cracking morning out today, sun was lovely and warm sat in the garden reading reviews ...then the clouds come and ruined it and with that the temp dropped by about 5-8 degrees ;-((...c'mon summer ffs put your game face on!!.
Really want to rant about  how this country is spending £21 Billion propping up the dogshit Euro....But i would be here all day!!.
Moving on to todays Ascot Card...

Ascot 14:30
A tough start ( and it only gets worse ) a 5f dash for 2 yr olds , great! , lets look at some speed ratings ,
I am only going to be interested in the horses that have run sub 1m00s races these are..
1.Bannock                58.41 @ Redcar   on GD/FM , Price is 9.2  ( 4 mins b4 off and price is 5.9 )
2.Charles the Great   58.69 @ Windsor on GD/FM , Price is 22.0( 4 mins b4 off and price is 22 )
3.Forevertheoptimist 58.99 @ Donny    on GD/FM , Price is 60.0( 4 mins b4 off and price is 55 )
**So there you see, 4 mins to go and you could have traded if backed all three for a healthy green )
So we have one that is like by the market and two outsiders ( rank outsider is ridden by K Fallon! ), and EW only paying top 3 on betfair.TBH i quite fancy having a nibble EW on all 3, The springer here is obv going to be Mike Wards runner from the u s of a , trotted up in a decent time over in chantilly last time and looks very useful , hes not here for the day out!! , and the likely fav Bapak Chinta will be hard to beat " if " improving on its fto run ( won at odds on ) ,so many horses that could massively improve or fail its an impossible task trying to nail any one horse down , and as per with me , i have decided to go down the route of looking at facts and figures and would back a horse on what it HAS achieved rather than on what it COULD achieve or might be, obv there will 1000's that disagree and a few that agree thats the nature of the game , yer pays yer money and takes yer chance, also as many of ya know i do quite often look at a Value angle and in a race like this why wouldnt you want to back a horse @ 60/1 when it has already run faster than the 6/1 Fav?...FFS , Forevertheoptimist is 14.5 to place!!...yes ok fair enough it may well come stone last , but it has reached a target that the fav's have all failed at so im happy to have a few quid at that and the others , i will also be laying the field at 1.8 , 1,5 ,1.2 and 1.08 as i can see this being very closely fought out.
To cover my bets i will also be LAYING SILVERHEELS.

Ascot 2.30
 1st3 Bapak Chinta (USA)6-1
 2nd5 Boomerang Bob (IRE)20-1
 3rd10 Crown Dependency (IRE)8-1


Ascot 15:05 
So we move onto the RIBBLESDALE and it is this race in which my Ascot NAP runs...BANIMPIRE @ 5.0
Is an absolute monster of a bet and the 1.93 to place imo is massive , i was at Cork when it murdered a decent field over this trip , it stays this trip very very well, can quicken, has a very high cruising speed not quick enough for the Guineas over 1m , but over  this 1m4f it is very good and shud be far too good for these , the only horse imo that can win this is RUMH , however it has to prove it stays , it won well , making all last time but that was over 1m2f , with the extra distance it may well get found out if its a battle to the line.
IMO BANIMPIRE is nailed on for a place , the nearest thing to a cert this side of " so you think " ( who lost ;-( )...i was so taken with the way he ran at Cork that i made this my banker for the week...it could all go wrong but @ 5/1 and Evens the place im more than happy to trade blows with the bookies over this!!
Wiiiiiiiii GET IN !!!!!!! , KER CHING!!!!!

Ascot 3.05
 1st2 Banimpire (IRE)3-1 F ( 4.4 on BF )
 2nd5 Field Of Miracles (IRE)16-1
 3rd4 Dorcas Lane10-1


Ascot 15:45 
Now we have the GOLD CUP over the marathon trip that is 2m4f and this race will centre around two horses and the big question " will they stay " ?? , i have to be totally honest and say , i have no idea whatsoever , if Fame and Glory stays this trip properly and runs a full race it will win , no doubt  about it , over 1m4f, 1m6f this would carry these over the line.....However this trip is a complete unknown the same remarks apply to Duncan , another quality animal who has won over good staying trips , but this is more than a staying trip...in my mind FaG stays it wins , however would i be prepared to back it at 2/1 to find out ? , absolutely not , at 2.5 or under i would lay and look to trade but never  back , it would have to be at least 3.9 for me to consider backing it..Not interested in Backing Duncan even at 9,s...
I do feel that Blue Bajan and TASTAHIL offer superb EW value or place only value as both are gteed to get the trip , both are in form , both will like track and ground so there  are plenty of boxes ticked there.

Ascot 3.45
 1st5 Fame And Glory11-8 F
 2nd10 Opinion Poll (IRE)16-1
 3rd13 Brigantin (USA)16-1


Ascot 16:25 
Now its the impossible to solve Britannia Hcap , a massive cavalry charge over the straight mile!! with an impossible 30 runners...fuck me!!
i like Sagramoor , Captain Bertie , Kuala Limper , Tropical Beat and Chain Lightning , of the 5 , i dunno , i will wait nearer the time to decide what i will be doing here , for placepot purposes and Mentalists if asked i would say Sagramor at a push ( ew obv ) , top 4 paid ( top 5 with some bookies ).
Ker Fucking Ching ching ching!!!!


Ascot 4.25
 1st11 Sagramor8-1
 2nd1 Cai Shen (IRE)20-1
 3rd22 The Tichborne (IRE)100-1
 4th7 Belgian Bill10-1


Ascot 17:00
Another tough 16 runner Hcap to get involved in , and a massively high class field it is.....wheres the Pin!!??.
1 i rly like is TAZAHUM who defeated Fury last time out and will enjoy the step up on trip.
Alkimos and Hunters Light will both probs run decent  races and shud be thereabouts , but its a massive guessing game.
Made a small profit on race with the trade on Akimos, but also made a mental profit max laying MARKSMANSHIP ( last post )

Ascot 5.00
 1st12 Pisco Sour (USA)20-1
 2nd2 Alkimos (IRE)13-2
 3rd14 Slumber10-1


Ascot 17:35 
The KING GEORGE and its naturally a tougie , but i have been waiting for the BROWN PANTHER to turn out again, ran a great race last time out and looks very much on the upgrade , this has a great chance today where a lot of the field are exposed.
Against him will be Sud Pacifique and Apache and outsider Mica Mika who i have a quiet fancy for at decent odds.Get in!!!

Ascot 5.35Full Result
 1st8 Brown Panther4-1 JF
 2nd4 Census (IRE)6-1
 3rd11 Well Sharp40-1
 4th17 Communicator16-1


Once again , have a great day chat soon i hope ;-)

What a superb day ..;-)

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