Saturday, 4 June 2011

DERBY DAY CARD

Today has been somewhat overshadowed with the controversial injuction stopping Fallon from riding recital in the Derby today, this does seem very petty but it does show that some contracts do hold some water.
Kieron you agreed to ride, you should have rode.....

Moving on , todays cards look very good and as expected the highlighted card for today is the Epsom Derby Card.
We had a very good year last year nailing the winner from every british classic plus winners from france ( arc ) and america , this year we have started of very well but then this game is easy when there are Frankels about.
Todays Derby has a very open look about it, the one horse that wont be winning is Carlton House, for reasons explained later..right lets crack on....

Epsom Downs 13:40 


A case can be  made for all of these bar SERGEANT ABLETT ,this even at 11.5 has to be a MAX LAY, this horse simply will never be good enough to trouble these , tbh you could also risk a bit on a place lay.
This is a rock solid start to the day, fill your fucking boots!!!.
On the back side ( as i know many of you like to back only and have no interest or understanding of laying ) i will be going for this dutch....
As we have already established Sergeant Ablett has no chance of winning so MAX LAY that to cover  all out going bets and dutch those three for win as that is where i see the winner coming from , if ya dont wanna dutch then the best stand alone bet i can say is MAX BET BOOGIE SHOES in the PLACE market @ 1.55 , this is surely free money?...go on have a go ;-)

RESULT = 1st Charles Camoin ( by a nose!! ) , 2nd Trojan Nights and 3rd BOOGIE NIGHTS.
Summary:Boogie committed too soon and was done in a 3 way photo on the line well clear of the rest , the dutch would have broke even however Trojan nights and Boogie Shoes hit 1.6 and 1.3 in running with tanfeeth hitting 2.5 so if you was watching and trading you should really have made some profit from that.
Obv if you just backed Boogie in the place market, that was never in doubt.

Epsom Downs 14:10

A tight little 2yr old race next up with 4 distance winners and all looking rock  solid...tough stuff.
Now we have what i would term as an anomaly here , now i will get boo'd here i know, people will say your mad before or a fucking genius after...but hey ho , MISS MUGA , currently is 140/1 on betfair and 50/1 will shops ( fuck that , get the 140 / 15.5 w/p on betfair ) run every part of its last two races quicker than the other three winners , is upto an incred 3 secs quicker than them at end on same ground/trip conditions and incred CASPAR NETSCHER which was beaten last time over 6f was beaten by a horse running a 1m 17secs race..Muga has run 1m12 and 1m13secs last twice!!! CN is 3/1 fuck me this a No brainer!!,,,,MAX LAY CASPAR NETCHER and use that money to BACK MISS MUGA win and place say 20/80% at 140/1 and 15.5....( maybe lay an extra 10% so gteed a return )......

RESULT = Fullbright 1st , Miss Muga was unplaced as was Caspar Necther
Summary: Hmm..Miss Muga broke and ran like a green as grass dog , was paddling at sea from the off and it ran nowhere near its own form, very poor ride from an odd horse , fortunately i filled my boots laying Caspar so i made a healthy profit.

Epsom Downs 14:40

A nice renewal for the Diomed and i will not desert PREMIER LOCO here , now i have to be honest as i am not entirely convinced  that this animal likes to put it all in , it def has ability but doesnt like to share it...so on that basis and the fact it owes me nothing i think 1.38 a place is FREE MONEY and i am advising a MAX PLACE BET.
There is No lay in this race.

RESULT = UNPLACED, just not quick enough and i cant see this winning any type of graded race.
Summary:Losing race, Loco ran no sort of race at all.


Epsom Downs 15:15 

A fantastically tricky sprint......oh my days...i will be dutching three here , MASAMAH , FALASTEEN and PERFECT BLOSSOM , i will also be MAX LAYING FATHOM FIVE to cover all my stakes.
The three chosen are all up there with the best times and sections , all in form , all like epsom , have everything going for them and i expect big runs from all....FATHOM FIVE WILL NOT WIN...end of!!

RESULT = Well not 1 of mine was placed however neither was fathom five.
Summary: 1 length separated the first 8 home , ours were in this mix , but ultimately not here , a very tight race, well won by Captain dunne.

Epsom Downs 16:00 
Investec Derby (Group 1)
£1250000.00 added, 3yo only, 1m 4f 10y, Class 1, £709625.00 penalty
13 runners

A great race and never has there been such an open looking derby.
For me i really like the look of POUR MOI ( ew ) @ 7.4 and 2.46 i simply cannot see this being unplaced and with the mercurial Barzalona aboard will get a perfect ride . if it stays it wins ,...simple as that...
MAX LAYING CARLTON HOUSE.


RESULT = POUR MOI = 1ST ( GET IN!! )...Carlton House was 3rd...
Summary:KER CHING!!

Epsom Downs 16:50 

A tough 1m4f hcap where almost 2/3's of the field can be argued a case for....sigh , gotta love these , 
Amanda Perrett has won this twice in the past five years and LIFE AND SOUL looks as though he's been primed for number three. A winner at Ascot from just 2lb lower in September, he made a pleasing comeback when attracting support at Newmarket and that will have done him the world of good. 6.8 and 2.56 this a rock solid bet and you  are gteed a great run for your money.COIN OF THE REALM is a MAX LAY.





RESULT = Life and soul was beaten 1/2l , 1/2l and a Head into 4th Grrrrr 1 more runner and top 4 would have been paid!!..we was unlucky there...However, on the upside COIN OF THE REALM was unplaced so no harm done ;-)
Summary:^^^^

Epsom Downs 17:25 
Getting out stakes and tbh ..its a mare and quite simply if you really had to have a bet here i would be going in win / place ( ew ) on CAPE VALE.
If you stuck around for this...what a shame , in the front two for the entire race till last 20yds when it just ran out of steam..paying top 4 this time and predictably enough it came 5th lol......

Have a great day, enjoy ur racing........;-0

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