Friday, 3 June 2011

Todays Card at EPSOM...

Epsom Downs 13:40

A very nice little small field group 3 ,1m fillies race to start us off with , and the most interesting runner here is the FAV TIMEPIECE.
TBH i can only see the winner being either Timepiece or last years winner Antarra , the rest are imvho just not good enough for this or against these two.
As Antarra hasn't run for 220 days i will lay this @ 2.26 , as its full fitness has to be taken on trust although bf i do expect this to be fully wound up but at just over evens im happy to have a MAX LAY with a 75% trade out @ 2.75
Timepiece is no shoo in....Couldnt confidently back this and wont, if i really had to have a win bet in this race i would back SKYWAY @ 4.8 in the place market  , if either of the front 2 fail to run their race then i expect this to be bang there.

Summary : The trade with the Fav for a favourable green for me is the bet , if it goes wrong liabilities will be low.
Result = Antarra 1st - Hit 4.0 in running, so bets matched and a nice green to start ;-)
Epsom Downs 14:10

A very tricky 1m Hcap...Big field , full of good horses......( pin handy anyone?? ) .
In a race like this i will only be interested by horses that proven distance and too some degree ground form , but distance is king in these and that makes it easy for me as from a field of 18 only 4 have any distance form.

1.Start Right 
Fastest winning time is 1m 38.06 over flat 1m at Goodwood and was fav on his last start at Meydan , has the Fallon drive to help and generally holds its form quite well.

2.Wannabe King
Ran CD in 1m 44.02 s and is slower over all sectionals than Start right is inconsistent albeit good on his day.

Ran CD in 1m 46.0s but was a lot quicker previously over the flat 1m at Kempton than both the above.Coming from the all conquering Hannon/Hughes team has to be respected , shortlist.

4.Tartan Gigha
Won this race last year in 1m 42.78s so that form on its own would be good enough however in 11 runs since that race ( this race ) it only managed a solitary 2nd and generally dissapointed so there is no way i could back this for a repeat.

Summary: Start Right Just gets a narrow Vote @ 8.2 and is worth a look or two i will be having an EW bet @ 35/65% , the rest of the field could do anything although most on second look feel exposed , the fahey runners could go well but i am happy to go with this an el i will get a decent run for my money,will be placing an in running lay @ 2.8 to cover stake.
Result = Start Right 3rd = Nice Win ( Tardy start and slowly away, one to follow )

Epsom Downs 14:45 

A Small field but packed with talent a very interesting renewal of the Coronation Cup.
Most will have this between St Nick' and MIDDAY and i simply cannot leave Midday , love this horse to bits and will be backing accordingly.
St Nick has so many questions to answer that it just cannot be trusted and @ 2.22 FAV simply has to be layed as much as Midday has to be backed.
Forget the rest.

Summary:Back MIDDAY till your balls fall off.......if it does get beat, take it like a man and move on , but this is a great bet even at 2.36
RESULT = St Nicholas Abbey 1st , However Midday did trade and got beat @ 1.01!!!!  and St Nic traded at 11.0 in running so you really shud  have  had your position covered there!! Nimps Money!.
3/3 profit wise so far today ;-)))
Epsom Downs 15:25

Another tight little Hcap which can go to RESURGE at a very attractive looking 11.0 win and place beckons , Twice a course winner and also a distance winner handles Epsom very well and has been dropped a couple o pounds for an unfortunate race lto at York where the break was missed.
Beaumonts Party @ 4.2 ( 3/1 ) is a MAX trade just lay lay lay will not win this with an 11lb rise in weights.
RESULT = RESURGE 1ST @ 9.4 Wiiiiiiiiiii ;-))) , and Beaumonts is unplaced.

Epsom Downs 16:05 
 ********************************THE OAKS************************************
What a great race this looks , but in it we do have a MAX LAY.
The MAX LAY in this race is WONDER OF WONDERS....will not stay as well as a few of these and is the weakest fav of an oaks i can remember in some time, fill your boots!!.

In the WIN market i think Blue Bunting has a great chance today , Zain al Boldan is a lot of peoples choice but i think its overall form is not quite as good as some of the others.
At the prices i think i would go with an EW on BEATRICE AURORE , Gteed to get the trip , likes the ground and has f that entitles her to a place at least.

Summary: I think Blue Bunting will win however i  think 3.5 too short and will go with Beatrice Aurore as an alternative with maybe a little saver on the side and in running lay on mine to get a max green up...
MAX LAY wonder of wonders...I WILL profit from this race!
Result - Wonder of Wonders 2nd - Beatrice ( unplaced ) , i layed WoW all the way down to 1.2 so was very happy had to re - lay in running in order to secure a profit, hard work but we got there...

Epsom Downs 16:50 

A straight forward race here for HOORAY , if he runs to within 6lbs of his best he wins ..EASY...and i am happy to take 1.95 that he will...MAX BET.
RESULT = HOORAY - 1st Nimps ;-))

Epsom Downs 17:25

Finally the last race..and a trappy hcap to round it off with a field full of improver's ,  However i really like the look of FITYAAN , this for me is a MAX EW BET ( 20/80% )

**May have an amendment here , when the back section went blank and i had a lay matched at 1.01 i had obv presumed that it had came 2nd.....according to sporting life it was unplaced??..either way i make a decent profit, i actuall make more for it being unplaced..will update shortly....

** was in fact 4th an unplaced, but lay matched @ 1.01 so obv very happy with that...

Good Luck , have a great day ;-)


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