Sunday, 26 June 2011

Morning All....

And what a superb day it is outside, been in the Garden for over an hour just roasting.....abs lovely....
Hope its like this tmrw....Playing Golf @ Scarthingwell  ,..C'mon Sun keep yer Hat on.......

Irish Derby today at the Curragh and i have the winner ;-)))),
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,425369,00.html ...
Imo Carlton House is the best horse in this race , it lost a shoe during the derby  , had an interrupted preparation , had to come wide losing lengths and was just held , the negatives are ,
1.Does he truly stay this trip?
2.Will he handle the Ground ( now soft , which will have an impact on his stamina )
3.Now currently 2.4 ( been backed  at all money from 2.20 - 2.52 ) , Skinny Price.

Is Treasure beach really as good as his form shows ( win over Nathaniel and 2nd in derby ) or is he flattered? , and Seville?? , Hmm..imo i just dont think he stays....One horse that def wont be winning is NATIVE KHAN and even @ 14.5 i would urge you to empty every account you have to lay this, IT WILL NOT WIN...( UNPLACED )

Back to what will win , i think its a bit trickier given the conditions than what it looks at first Glance , However i just cannot get away from Carlton House, however there are niggles , doubts about it with the ground etc. for me i think THE bet is to Dutch the top three @ 1/3 £900 Staked returns £300 Profit ( £285-60 )
i think this is an outstanding betting opp , i simply will not have it that the winner will not come from the first three , i think Carlton House wins, but am happy to take a saver option.......
Curragh 3.50
 1st8 Treasure Beach7-2
 2nd7 Seville (GER)5-1
 3rd3 Memphis Tennessee (IRE)10-1


Carlton House was 4th and just wasnt good enough...However a very nice £285-60 Profit...This bet was THE bet!!-)
Lets Crack on wi the Challenge....

Back Bets:
14-00 Salisbury - Esentepe - £100 @ 2.1 - 2nd ( hit 1.73 in running ) = Lost £90
*Backed again £100 @ 2.66 and have also set a keep lay in @ 2.0 for £100 13-56pm *
15-35 Salisbury - Bertoliver -£75 @ 5.1 - Unplaced = Lost £75
15-25 Windsor - Foxhaven - £100 win @ 8.4 and £200 Place @ 2.84- Result 4th ( hit 1.04 / 2.06 in running ) = Lost £300 *
16-00 Windsor - Pressure Drop - £35 @ 3.4 - Unplaced = Lost £35
_________________________________________________________________________

Lay Bets:
14-35 Salisbury - Plym - £55 @ 10.0 - Unplaced = Won £55
16-45 Salisbury - Eureka - £150 @ 4.9 - 1st = Lost £585
14-55 Windsor - Johnny Hancocks £75 @ 5.9 - 2nd ( well beaten ) = Won £75
16-00 Windsor - Betty Fontaine £55 @ 4.4 - 1st = Lost £187
16-35 Windsor - Directorship £75 @ 6.4  - Unplaced = Won £75

Trade Bets:
15-35 Salisbury - Total Stake £185**NAP** - Result = MAZE 1st = Win £49-31
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
13-40 Curragh - Mulheb - Back £200 @ 4.8 and leave a keep LAY in @ 3.0 for £300 for a £100 full green. - Result = Hit 2.04 in running = WON £100

14-10 Curragh - Dutch top three as listed below....£600 to win £28+
RESULT = Libourne Lad 1st = WIN £38-08 ( tough as nails 2nd )


LOTD:
15-50 Curragh - Native Khan £35 @ 14.5 - Unplaced = Won £35

NAP: Is the Salisbury Dutch**

Have a gr8 Day ;-))...
** i actually profited on the Foxhaven race, thru trading but obv the challenge has to show a loss ;-(.*

Analysis*: After 3 days its fair to say my back bet selections have been miserable as shit costing me over £1100!!!..ffs my lays have shown a tidy profit and my trade bets have been awesome ...so i may well curtail the back bets until i find my rhythm with them , however i will add to this an upgrade on the dutches and trade selections....Hoping i can still make a profit today with a few races left , fingers crossed , away from this ive had a very profitable day , been an easy day for locking in profits....

Fucking disasterous ending to an otherwise good day...fucking Dobbsey made me loads to day and then wins on Eurekpatently the slowest horse in the race, FFS!!!...ARGH!!!!!..made a nice LOSS today of £559.01

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