Sunday, 12 June 2011

Today we will focus on Maidens ( all grades )

I have decided today to just focus my attentions on all Maidens in the UK / IRE , we have 2 English meetings and 2 from Ireland.
Maidens can be incredibly tricky races to predict as so much is guesswork , you look at breeding / cost / trainer / jockey / trip /breeding /weather / breeding...its an endless cycle of searching for hidden answers, then when you think you have the answers quite often something will win that you completely missed!!.
The one thing i will always do is lay odds on in maidens and never be taken in by hype or quotes , ie: " this has been flying on the gallops " etc etc....Generally its all piss and wind...
As a rule of thumb horses with current exp and form do have a slight edge even if over the long term they may prove far inferior beasts, that is something to look for.
There are certain trainers that just want to " get a run " into their horses before they go onto other things , others just want the experience and some that are actually very good.
So there is a lot to consider before making any decision and even then , well the outcome is still mostly guessy at best because until you have seen the horse actually race you have no idea how it will perform.
One last piece of advice which is impossible to blog about as we are not " live " at the track is how the horse actually looks in the Paddock, this can have a massive impact on your final decision , its size,scope, condition etc etc...when blogging like this ad hoc you have to imagine every horse is the same size,weight,scope etc....
Right lets look...

Salisbury 15:05 
A class 5 over 1m for 3 yr olds , these races tend to have horses in them that A) are not as good as previously thought , B)have been difficult to train or C)had injuries as a 2 yr old and needed time so picking the bones out of these can be either very easy or impossible.
Quite a few of the big stables are represented here and some with bits of form however just about every horse with experience has the same quote " pushed along from halfway " which means they were in races that they couldnt keep up in tried a move , run out of gas and stayed on at one pace....which really doesnt enthrall.
On that basis i am going to leave every horse thats run out of this and concentrate on the newcomers.
And the two i like the Most  are Amazing Win and EASTERN BREEZE with the latter just getting the nod.
Now we all know that a lot of Godolphin horses need their first run but they do also get a few winners in. you know its well bred so wont be an absolute donkey and you should get a decent run for your money.
Eastern Breeze is currently 15.0 / 4.5 so does also represent some good value and a decent EW bet looks the bet here.
The Fav which is currently Electra Star is 4.4 and is too high to lay if it drops to around 3.5 pre race i may lay this , i may also put an in running lay , gonna have to wait a bit nearer before i decide.
Result - another 35/1 shot wins, eastern breeze ran out of steam and Electra Star hit 1.7 in running so at least i made my in running Lay Pay..
Salisbury 16:15 
A 6f race for 2yr olds...this is a very guessy race.
The two i  want to focus on here are HARBOUR WATCH a £58,ooo purchase from the Hannon stable with Hughesy aboard.Based soley on its future entries and breeding i would suggest that this could easily be the best horse here.
The second horse of interest is AVON PEARL an Avonbridge colt bred with speed and from the very useful Henry Candy stable, this horse should improve greatly from its first run where it tired late on and came in 6th , over a shorter trip, with that exp under its belt a decent run should be expected.
None of the others look in any way special YAMOOS at 4.5 is worth a MAX LAY.
Result - Harbour Watch 1st @ 3.85 ( very Easy ) , Avon Pearl 2nd

Doncaster 14:50 
A 6f race for 2yr olds and an auction event.
Quite a big field with some notable trainers present Two with form that Interest me are Sandbetweenourtoes* and Mizbah , both ran very well first time out i would say that SBOT* has the better form slightly and it did run in a much better grade of race than this so is technically dropping grades.
Mizbah was beaten a head in a time of 1m17 and Sbot* was 4th beaten max 1 1/2 lengths but in 1m14s, so the time of the race was a lot quicker ( sbot's race ).
But in the mix are , Chapter Seven , Festival Spirit , and Talwar all newcomers that should run very good races.
The MAX LAY in this race is SOVEREIGN DEBT , its form behind Sbot leaves it too much to do.
So breaking it down i would suggest that these are the five principles in this race , 3 unraced, 2 raced and decent form.
CHAPTER SEVEN is worth a nibble @ 21.0 / 4.5 EW as that price is just too big for a well related Fahey / Hanaghan newcomer, this could easily run into a place.
SBOT's race http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,435488,00.html Shows how well it ran and with a furlong to go you would have thought it was every inch the winner, however it got swamped at the finish.....will there be any as good here??..the million dollar question , and tbh at 2.66 im not prepared to find out , even if i do thibk its the most likeliest winner at 2.6 im quite happy to LAY that.at around 3.2 i would consider backing it.
This is a puzzler for sure the ew bet mentioned is a solid option however i have a " feeling " that TALWAR could be the answer here and i will have an EW go at this @ 9.2 / 2.88 it will need to run to a fairly decent level if its entry into the Tattersalls Millions is to be believed and at that price im prepared to find out.
Result - Sovereign Debt 1st , improves a good 8-12lb and completely turns around its previous running with Sbot , ran very well and was running on at the end...the problem with maidens.....In Hindsight the Fav 9 was the lay ) as it just doesnt stay....But hindsight is great.
Doncaster 16:30
A tricky little blighter, 1m4f for 3yr and older....He Haw the screams come....what manner of beast will lay here ???.
Again the big boys send there underperformers here in they hope they either improve  or at least look like they have a campaign in them.
All bar 1 have a run or more under their belt, and the lone debutant is one i like here LIGHT WELL out of Saddlers Wells should appreciate every yard of this trip, from a fairly decent stable and with Buick up , whom  i like.
The three with form i like Searing Heat , Muqtarrib and Waywatd Glance , all 3 should improve and run better than their current form suggests they are.
@ 3.75 i think Muqtarrib is too low and is a solid LAY option in this race , and @ 19.0 i think LIGHT WELL offers some great EW value.-**MUQTARRIB has drifted to 4.1 and LIGHT WELL has come in to 12's , so ive traded both for a very nice green, thank you very much**

Actually ive now run out of time for the irish races so ..another day for them , the above may well be great for me today or total turds , either way you have to stick to your principals and what you believe in....
So have a great day..chat later ;-)



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