Tuesday, 18 October 2011

Evening update...

Just the one football bet for tonight and its a blog bet....Lille v Inter Milan
* Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 (2.10) @ £500

Tuesday Greetings..

Morning one and all , hope your all well , been a busy ol' few days , trialling some new stuff, tweaking some old and staying the same in places , but its evolution , its progress and the light of the new dawn is breaking , 2 weeks into the month and the members accounts have tripled from the starting bank of £1500 to £4675 !! , so a very promising start!.
Everything is going along very smoothly and with the link up with Acheron things are just going to get better , they are running free trials for there investment centre which start 1st nov and already we have over 150 enquiries so its going to be a very busy time with some dissapointed folk as the Acheron membership is limited to 50 regardless , so there will be a criteria to meet and one of those will be blog loyalty , and we are thinking about splitting into tiers according to bank size which will be easier to manage , but with going live in 2 weeks < we need to finalise all the details over the next few days.
I still need to update the 365 challenge which after a couple of losing days has recovered a bit of ground and re: byron yesterday i will now advise of value element in lays rather than let you guess and lose , it was a bit after timer ( ish ) saying , ohh i didn't lay that loser as the price was too high , but when the selections are made they are made on current tissue not withstanding future re-evaluations , so i will have to be a bit more explanatory.

missing my regular banter and feedback  from the likes of boom , ash , jason , mark and ofc PK , where are ya guys, do like a bit o craic thru the day?!

The cards are taking a back seat today , im still going to be having my blog bets but instead of a straight card im going to highlight 15 races i like from across the board , with the same highlight , i was thinking about doing a placepot card as well , would you guys be interested in that? , do any of you do placepots? , if so usually how many bets ? , i want to try and help you guys win , or at least assist , so tell me what your betting needs are , is there anything you want highlighted? , are there any races in particular you want a review on?..c'mon guys , let me know!.

Back bets :

15:20 Yarmouth - JACKS REVENGE - £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced = Lost £250
With Fallon back in the saddle after an effortless victory under similar race conditions this looks nap material.

14:40 Exeter - Numen - £250 @ bfsp - 1st @ 2.42 = won £355
Beat the fav ( shallow bay ) lto and  won so convincingly that i dont the 7lb pull will make any difference, always had the 2nd in the pocket and at the odds and with ap back on im happy to stick with this.

16:10 Exeter - Coach Lane - £150 @ 4.1 ( lay £200 @ 2.1 ) - Unplaced ( hit 1.83 in running ) = Won £50
AP rides this for the first time in 5 years ( they won ) and deserts his friend rebecca curtis to take this ride , if fit and ready should be able to eat these.

16:40 Exeter - Mumbles Pier - £500 @ 2.4 and Spring Moon £500 @ 2.16 ( keep bet ) - Mumbles Pier 1st = Won £190
2 horse race , but i have made some very decent money of these previously , both are pretty closely matched and i can see some in running carnage going on here , it is very easy to see spring moon and mumbles pier flip flopping prices in running, will change from fence to fence and how they are jumping.

17:10 Exeter - Balaklava - £250 @ bfsp - 2nd = Lost £250
Has breeding to suggest it could be group class on flat , cost £190,000 and will be expected to go straight in and will be a good un to follow thru the season.
___________________________________________________£95 profit from back bets

Lays i like :

14:50 Yarmouth - Represent - £250 @ bfsp - ( lotd ) - Unplaced = Won £250
Looks thoroughly exposed and i cant believe that one of the well bred newcomers in this race wont be far too good.

15:10 Exeter - Mcauley - £250 @ 2.86 - Unplaced = Won £250
This has it all to prove in this small but quality field , where they all have a chance such a short price is madness.

15:40 Exeter - My Brother Sylvest - £500 @ 2.88 ( with a trade for £350 @ 3.9 ) - 1st = Lost £940 ( no trade matched )

15:30 Lingfield - Equity Card - £250 @ 2.78 - 1st = Lost £445
Has looked an awkward ride and not a stayer when weakening in the final stages of his last 2 races , there is enough opposition in this field to make this a solid lay.
__________________________________________________Lost £885 on Laybets

Interesting EW selections :

1. Yarmouth 13:50 - MIXORA - unplaced , ran no race at all.
Missed the break on its first run , was impeded when playing catch up , ran very green but still ran on nicely towards the end and showed enough to think this could be quite useful and with that experience under her grey belt she should be capable of a very decent run here.

2.Yarmouth 15:50 - SABHAN - 3rd ( btn , hd,hd ) @ 6.68
Geoff harker and R winston have not travelled down here from yorkshire just for the day out , this was a solid looking running on performance lto over 7f and i think the yard are expecting a decent run today.

3.Lingfield 14:30  - Reggie Perrin - unplaced , ran ok but weakened quickly once chance had gone.
Having some good placed form over a slightly shorter trip but full of running , in this app race with decent young d byrne aboard this should be bang there.

4.Lingfield  15:00 - Remix - 3rd @ 5.88
Has some good experience under his belt and after a running on 2nd last time out good things are expected today at the minimum a place beckons.

5.Lingfield 16:30 - Desert Falls - Unplaced 

6. Lingfield 17:30 - Rebecca Romero -
_____________________________________________________

So there we go..15 best bets for today...Enjoy and good luck!


***So an up and down day, losing on the laybets again , but making a profit from the back bets , and the ew selections failing somewhat , finding it tough going at the minute , got no rhythm , no pzzazz , a lot of horses running into / out of form as one would expect for this time of year and sometimes the plain obv being missed , the two lays that lost were my strongest but that said i kinda felt all four had a good chance of getting turned today , but summer jumps / small field = betting minefield and really should be left alone , that said the back bets one for me again so that is a positive , the ew's were very disappointing all in all , so tmrw i will be just nail my top two lays ,  with more back bets and a few ew's...we will get thru this and hit another purple patch , cant win all the time, its about minimising losses when your in the rough...all in all , after 3 months of race cards , dutches , crazy bets , singles , full days and mental bank busters after 3 months we are still over £10k up , so an average of £3.7k a month from £5k ..that is a good long term performance and beats any bank , or stocks and shares , so things are looking good overall , i would just rather i got back to full winning ways rather than all the hit and miss of late...might have to wait a few weeks till the seasons change.....anyhoo , cya tmrw for some more fun and games!!

Monday, 17 October 2011

Morning all , hope your all well...

And hope you all had a decent weekend , both punting and in life , i do hope you caught the Frankel race!.
The Mighty ( laughable ) Gunners managed to beat Sunderland 2-1 thanks to a good RVP double inc' a beaut of a free kick , but without them we would be struggling coz tbh we are still shit....every game is a pain to watch , this is a new arsenal and not a good one...
Over to the horses today , i think we'll have a bit of Ponte' today but be warned its a tough old day out there , big cards and generally impossible races..so gonna need a bit o luck me thinks.
R.I.P Dan Wheldon  , died last night in the indy 300 @ las vegas , 33 years old and was involved in a 15 car pile up.
Why just about every time man utd fail to win , Patrice Evra ( the dirty bastard ) screams " racial abuse " , he needs help , this is the 5th+ time he has made this claim , the guy has some serious issues!.
Why is everyone blaming Cameron for the dire financial state of this country? , it was fucked over by labour , brown / blair between them fucked us royally in the arse , who ever took over was in for a nightmare ride on the hot seat , every govt regardless of their stance ( lib / lab etc ) are self appeasing, sycophantic , nest making jolly boys , they ALL piss in the same pot , there is no real govt now , nobody really cares anymore , its just a great big pantomime!.

anyway , .....A slightly different card from today , i will be nominating my back selection, followed by my speed ratings 2nd choice ( alt ) then the ew selection , if i feel there is a price worthy lay in the race in will add that as an addendum at the bottom *.....i use the same speed ratings and software to gather my initial selections , then apply my human touch , but the line between lay and back using this method is so very fine that i feel this is a better way to find the winners , i will be using the pas system for generating the lays.

PONTEFRACT

14:10
BACK - FREE HOUSE - unplaced
ALT - VENTURA SPIRIT - unplaced
EW - ROCKTHERUNWAY - unplaced
*NO LAY
______________________________________________

14:40

BACK - DESERT PHILOSOPHER - 2nd @ 2.92
ALT - GLEN ELLYN - unplaced
EW - MIDNIGHT TRYST - 3rd @ 7.60
*LAY - BYRONIC HERO - £250 @ BFSP - 1st ( however lay was advised based on early price of 2.5 as stated in analysis , traded out at 4.5 )
**This fav has to be taken on at likely shortish odds , had a fair 2nd over cd a couple of runs back but has been reluctant to load and race since , very modest performer and with enough in this field to take him on , its a cast iron lay.* have decided to accept loss for blog as i didnt show trade in early post = lost £750 on race
______________________________________________

15:10

BACK - SPINATRIX
ALT - COMPTONSPIRIT
EW - FOL HOLLOW
*NO LAY
______________________________________________

15:40

BACK - MISTER MUSIC
ALT - CRAVAT
EW - LETSGOROUNDAGAIN - 1st @ 7.92
*LAY - AL SAHAM - £250 @ BFSP - unplaced = won £250
**The lay has it all to prove here against some very solid reliable sorts who themselves have some very useful placed form i think this is a solid lay.
______________________________________________

16:10

BACK - DR FINLAY
ALT - PETELLA
EW - SPRUZZO
*NO LAY
______________________________________________

16:40

BACK - CHEDDAR GEORGE
ALT - KODICIL - 1st @ 6.92
EW - EMPEROR OF ROME
*LAY - MIGHTY CLARETS - £250 @ BFSP - unplaced = won £250
______________________________________________

17:10

BACK - TIME MEDICEAN
ALT - LEGAL EAGLE
EW - ANOTHER WISE KID
*NO LAY
______________________________________________

17:40

BACK - SHARP SOVEREIGN
ALT - WAAHEJ
EW - ULLSWATER
*LAY - RIOS ROSANNA - £250 @ BFSP - unplaced = won £750
______________________________________________P n L = £0-00

Good Luck , what ever your doing!..

Sunday, 16 October 2011

The Morning after..

The night before , yes indeed , what a superb day of racing yesterday , with FRANKEL showing the world he is easily the best miler for some time and maybe all time!! , was a performance of magnificent ease and class , carried his head like a loon in the first 1f , then settled mid-rear , with pace maker charging off and rather ruining any race plan imo , after 4f he decided enough is enough and unleashed the beast , within moments he was level, then for another 1f or so excelebration and dick turpin ( on the rail , others straight thru middle ) gave chase and made a race of it , then with a stretch of those powerful legs he lengthened and was quickly 4 lengths clear , winning very easily , with a revised rp rating of 143 i think makes him an all time great and i am convinced he will get 1m2f with consummate ease....bring on next year!!..
On the betting / trading front it was a day of two halves , other than winning massive on frankel i struggled to make much headway at ascot , did excellent at cheltenham ( scooping 4 winners and 2 seconds ) , did quite well at catterick but took a beating in cork which rather tarnished the day , come out in front but it was a bit swingy in the middle with the PnL going up down up down and finally settling up...tough day all in all but come out alive!!.
Got a couple of nice bets today for bath , if anyone wants the bath card i will send it upon request...

Friday, 14 October 2011

As...

its a good news today i thought i may as well share a card , i wasn't actually going to be doing anything today but my plans have changed a bit so here's today's Haydock Card..( WARNING ADVISED AS GROUND IS BOTTOMLESS )

HAYDOCK

13:55
BACK - SAMBA KING - 3rd @ 8.2
LAY - JUNO THE MUFFINMAN £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced = won £250
EW - MY DESTINATION - 2nd @ 10.5
* For the shortie layers , beyond conceit is well worth a lay ( i may well lay that as well , will certainly be looking to trade it ). - Fav 1st but hit 5.0+ in running , easy trade and easy profit.
______________________________________________

14:25

BACK - LADY LAYLA - 3rd
LAY - BASANTEE - £250 @ BFSP - 1st @ 4.99 = lost £975
EW - KID SUITOR - 2nd
* 3 HORSE RACE , Basantee looks very exposed against these and a place lay is also advised.
and the outsider of three wins lol lol..hit 48 in running....!! ( i traded in running so no actual harm done ;-).
______________________________________________

15:00

BACK - CHOOSEDAY - unplaced
LAY - MINCE - £250 @ BFSP - 2nd @ 1.92 = win £250
EW - BALLESTEROS - 1st @ 7.20
* Mince , never raced over the minimum , never raced on ground like this , up against a stiff bunch and is evens fav...thats a lay all day for me, if it wins i suck it up and move on, but  will always lay these types in races that cut up like this.
______________________________________________

15:35

BACK - TANTAMOUNT - Unplaced
LAY - INTUITION - N/A - Unplaced
EW - PENANG PEGASUS - Unplaced
* This a race that is all about speculation , i have no defined lay here although again i would fancy taking on the hannon fav as its debut was on a firm surface , and against some likely types on breeding is worth backing against , the two selections are purely speculative and is based solely on breeding.
______________________________________________

16:10

BACK - ZAKREET - Unplaced
LAY - GRIZZLE - £250 @ BFSP - 2nd = won £250
EW - DANEKING - Unplaced
* Both daneking and zakreet love soft underfoot conditions which has been seen when they both hacked up in their respective races , both are worth chancing here in these conditions , grizzle is a max lay ( lotd ).
______________________________________________

16:45

BACK - SMART STEP ( NAP ) - 1st @ 6.91
LAY - POSTSCRIPT - £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced = won £250
EW - FOCAIL EILE - Unplaced
* Smart step sluiced thru the mud to win easy last time out and is this improving sort should be too good for this modest buch ( however mj's horses rarely run 2 races the same..be warned! ).
______________________________________________

17:20

BACK - OPUS MAXIMUS - Unplaced
LAY - HORATIO CARTER - £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced = Won £250
EW - GEORGBERNHARDSHAW - Unplaced
*
______________________________________________

17:55

BACK - TAIKOO -2nd
LAY - ALL MY HEART -1st
EW - SPHINX - non runner
* Trust the soft ground specialists ;-)..* race void for betting due to non runner*
______________________________________________P n L = £275-00 Profit

Thursday, 13 October 2011

Thats it now till mon..

Im having the day off tmrw, to re-focus , re-energise and get back in the zone for what will be a spectacle of racing on Saturday , had a couple of losing days this week and i think my mind may well be elsewhere , so im gonna have some beer , have a lie-in and relax and hit the sat cards big time , weekends are members only anyway so the regular readers are only gonna be missing a Friday fix ;-) , hope everyone has a superb weekend , good luck with your betting what ever you do , keep smiling and keep the faith , remember this a marathon not a sprint!..c ya'll on Monday ttfn x

Quite...

A swingy day yesterday , no real losing lays ( for a change lol ) , however i felt early yesterday i had a garage full of big nap bets and was confident of making a satchel busting snatch , however , like most things in life it didnt quite work out that way with several poor decisions , some in-decision and general poor advice a lot fell through the floor , quite surprised to come out the end of yesterday still £625 up , sometimes they work , sometimes they dont , yesterday was a day when nothing really hit the mark again having countless seconds and to really ruin my night i had a £22k multi running into rowan ridge in the 2040 ...fucking fifth , after three great runs previously it never looked like turning a twig here even tho the opposition was easier....so yes fair to say i was quite dissapointed with yesterday , was hoping to grab another £2k+ day..sigh , but hey ho , still doing great and theres always today.....just finalising the cards , not sure what to post today...making my mind up just now..
________________________________________________________________________________

BRIGHTON

14:30
BACK - ASAID - £200 @ BFSP - 2nd @ 3.5 lost £200
LAY - EYEDORO - £250 @ BFSP - unplaced = won £250
EW - LIGHT WELL - £225 @ BFSP - unplaced = lost £225
*
________________________________________________

15:00

BACK - CATHCART CASTLE - unplaced
LAY - AGAPANTHUS - N/A - Unplaced
EW - PENANG CINTA - 1st @ 12.46
*
________________________________________________

15:30

BACK - FIRESTARTER ( NAP ) - £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced -( = Lost £250
LAY - RENEGOTIATE - £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced = Won £250
EW - EXPERT FIGHTER - 1st @ 6.8
*
________________________________________________

16:00

BACK - PEARL OPERA -unplaced
LAY - METHAYEL - £250 @ BFSP - 1st @ 7.2 = lost £1550
EW - AD VITAM -unplaced
*
________________________________________________

16:30

BACK - TIMPANIST - unplaced
LAY - STONECRABSTOMORROW - £250 @ BFSP - 3rd = won £250
EW - OLNEY LASS - unplaced
*
________________________________________________

17:00

BACK - BILLY RED - 3rd @ 8.6
LAY - ATHWAAB - £250 @ BFSP - unplaced = won £250
EW - COMMANDINGPRESENCE - unplaced
*
________________________________________________P n L = lost £1225
************************************************
For ROB...


KEMPTON

17:20

6-10 MAKYAAL AND CALEDONIA PRINCE
ONLY TENTATIVE SELECTIONS AS ONLY 3 LB SEPERATE THE WHOLE FIELD...NOT ONE FOR ME TO GET INVOLVED IN.

17:50

5/6 OUTLAW TORN AND ERMYN FLYER
QUITE LIKE THESE ESPECIALLY OUTLAW TORN ( 5 ) WHO IS THE ONLY ONE WITH WINNING FORM AND IT WAS OVER CD IN A TOUGHER RACE.

18:20
1/3 GRASER AND WHATSSOFUNNY
WHATSSOFUUNY ON BREEDING SHOULD EASILY BE UPTO BEATING THESE, PETER SAVILL HAS ONLY STARTED SENDING HORSES TO ROGER VAROIAN AND HE WILL WANT TO GET OFF TO A FLYER.

18:50
3/10 ROCKME COCKNEY AND SYNFONICA
NEITHER REALLY LIKED IN AN UNINSPIRING RACE.

19:20
4/7 FINE PAINTING AND MORE THAN WORDS
FINE PAINTING HAS SOME GOOD COURSE FORM AND MORE THAN WORDS IS A £145K PURCHASE FROM THE ALL CONQUERING HANNON YARD.

19:50
1/2/7
GUAVA , ROMANY SPIRIT AND LITTLECOTE LADY
ALL 3 HAVE THE FORM AND PROGRESSION IN THEM TO TAKE A HAND IN THIS , HARD TO SPLIT THE THREE.

20:20
3/5
DERAASA AND ROBIN HOODS BAY
DERAASA FINALLY FINDING THE WINNING THREAD BY WINNING 10 LENGTHS LAST TIME OUT LOOKS ON THE UPGRADE AND CAN CONTINUE WITH IMPROVEMENT , ROBIN HOODS BAY LOVES IT ROUND HERE AND WILL RUN TO FORM.

20:50
5/12
IMPERIAL FONG AND DHAMPAS
A TERRIBLE RACE AND NOT MUCH TO SAY ABOUT ANY OF THEM.

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