Happy Friday ;-)

Morning Readers ,
                          Yesterday went well with the advised bet ( LAY ) being a great success however you would have had to back ( lay ) it in running to get the right price ( hit 2.30 ir ) as it got comprehensively beaten ( and flipped favoritism ) however the EW on Huff n Puff fell a bit flat as this looked good in the main , traveling well until about 2 out and then the pace quickened again and this simply had nothing more to offer staying on at the one pace for a just touched off for 4th 5th , ok fto run and hopefully with the experience and fitness advantage can improve , and the Hobbs and Williams yard did gain multiple wins elsewhere so remain in very good form.

Whats on today ?..well i have already stated yesterday that Chepstow is off so that leaves us with just Lingers and Muss' and Lingers is an AW flat meeting...so we have just Muss' to look at...

Not forgetting we also have late afternoon & early evening racing at Wolvo and Donkeydalk.....neither of which excites me greatly...

Things of note : There should be a well done mention for Harry Bentley currently riding in Qatar for Al Jani who went thru the card on Tues with 6/6...outstanding riding and a great shame the general media didnt pick up on it...and over at Meydan the Boys in Blue ( Goldolphin ) are dominant and have all their string in tip top shape and i think this year could see a massive revival after the doping and poor general form of last term...

So....onto today....well there is just one race that barely falls within my punting parameter and its a Mare's Novice hurdle...not a great race in all honesty and not one that excites me...

Racecard

#	Form	Horse	A	Wgt	Trainer	Jockey	OR	Naps	Odds
1	4210-15	Brijomi Queen (IRE) 48	7	11-6	N G Richards	D F O'Regan		2	7/4
2	8-114	Cloudante (IRE) 15	6	11-0	D McCain Jnr	J M Maguire		1	6/1
3	6	Cottam Maybel 16	5	11-0	M W Easterby	Mr H A A Bannister (7)			100/1
4	2323-6	Maison De Ville (GER) 44	6	11-0	D O'Meara	A P McCoy		1	9/1
5	10-226	Rathvawn Belle (IRE) 40	7	11-0	Miss Lucinda V Russell	K Renwick	110		15/2
6	14	Stephanie Frances (IRE) 45	6	11-0	D Skelton	Harry Skelton		1	15/8
7	23	Morning With Ivan (IRE) 19	4	10-3	M Todhunter	Harry Challoner (5)	109		15/2
8		Pink Mischief 78	4	10-3	A Crook	J Kington (3)			50/1

Betting

..as you can see yourselves the race is split in two halves with 5 that can race n win and the remainder have no chance..The 5 with experience are closely matched and can all run to around the same mark and have nothing in hand .

For me the bet here is probably an EW on MORNING WITH IVAN currently 13.5 ( Betfair ) and in receipt of plenty of allowances , its overall form to date is nothing special and my overall impression is that this filly needs a bit further however she was only beaten a short head ( on good or better ground ) on her first attempt and then was beaten for toe coming 2nd next out..well beaten in fairness that day but that was a fairly decent race and i feel with a tad of improvement this can certainly get into the mix and a place is a definite possibility with the win not out of the question....GL.

RESULT : Fair 2nd @ 12.0 ( 3.41 ) for a nice profit ;-)

Full Result

Pos	Dist	Horse	Trainer	Age	Weight	Jockey	SP
1st		2 Cloudante (IRE)	D McCain Jnr	6	11-0	J M Maguire	10/1
Made all, shaken up and clear from 3 out, kept on well opened 8/1
2nd	4½	7 Morning With Ivan (IRE)	M Todhunter	4	10-3	Harry Challoner (5)	8/1
Tracked leaders in 3rd, took keen hold, chased winner from 4th, kept on and no impression
3rd	6	4 Maison De Ville (GER)	D O'Meara	6	11-0	A P McCoy	8/1
Held up mid-division and keen, ridden and headway before 2 out to take 3rd, one pace

oooh 3 Meetings on WTF?.....

Well i must say i feel spoiled today after the dire efforts of late with 3 meetings on ( although Chepstow tmrw has already been caped )  and we do have a few nice races to look at , today i will highlight two Novice Hurdles for you....

1. 1310 LUDLOW

Ludlow For Functions Novices' Hurdle2m

• (4yo+, 2m, Class 4, 13 runners)
• Winner £3,899 2nd £1,145 3rd £572 4th £286
• Going: Heavy, Soft in places
• Surface: Turf

..




A fairly decent looking event with a few interesting runners with Red Seventy being the Fav after a good looking 2nd to multiple winner Stand to Reason lto , however...i dont like any progeny of Sakhee in any realm of the NH game and most of its better form has been on Good or firm ground so this very heavy turf is a complete unknown and with so many questions yet to answer at around 3.0 i think this is a big swerve but is it a good lay?....well for me at the odds im laying this i need at least 3 solid runners on my side and i do believe i have these so the answer is yes @ 3.0-3.20 this is a good lay at 2.5-2.8 its very good and at under 2.5 its exceptional.....

The first runner we have is Kings Warrior a 100+ rated sort on the flat that raced at a good level but with little success and is another unproven on the ground or shows like a stayer but the George / Brennan partnership is a strong one and they do well with these types so it would be no surprise to see this son of Kings Best improve for the switch and i feel 8.0 is just about the right price but i wouldnt take any less if having a go on this.

Next up is Huff n Puff and this does look like a stayer in waiting after a solid flat career notching multiple distance victories at 10 , 12 and 14f ( 1m6f ) this son of Azamour and Half brother to Eradicate ( 2010/2011 Swinton Hcap Hurdle Winner ) could be a very smart horse in waiting and @ 14.0 i feel has been over looked in the market and even more so when you look at the connections ?..trained by Venetia Williams ( in good form ) and ridden by Sam Thomas ( who cherry picks his rides these days ) this looks a cracking EW punt and certainly one to look out for in future races.

Our third Runner is Mountain King a last time out ( lto ) winner that dismantled a decent field over this trip in softer going and looks a nice future sort , coming from the hot Hobbs / Johnson team this is a major player and is probably ( imo ) the one they have to beat as this is the only runner with true actually proven form on the ground, over the trip and in these race conditions.

Finally we have Gallic Warrior who is a proven winning stayer but with little scope however if the new boys fail to shine or run green then this could plod on for a win although this would be a slight surprise.

SUMMARY : I do like the look of HUFF N PUFF as an EW bet and a future star but the strongest bet has to be the LAY on the FAV ( Red Seventy @ 3.15 ( current price ) .....

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RESULT :

Full Result

Pos	Dist	Horse	Trainer	Age	Weight	Jockey	SP
1st		8 Mountain King	P J Hobbs	5	11-4	R Johnson	11/8f
Tracked leading pair, went 2nd 4th, led before 3 out, hit 2 out, clear before last, pushed out flat, easily opened 15/8
2nd	12	9 Muckle Roe (IRE)	N A Twiston-Davies	5	11-4	Ryan Hatch (7)	12/1
Held up towards rear, headway approaching 5th, driven and went 3rd before 3 out, hit 3 out, ridden and stayed on to 2nd flat, no chance with easy winner opened 16/1
3rd	3¼	11 Red Seventy	D Pipe	5	11-4 p	Tom Bellamy (7)	7/2
Chased leader, led 2nd, pushed along and headed before 3 out, chased winner, mistakes 3 out and next, no chance when lost 2nd flat opened 11/4
4th	17	1 Gallic Warrior (FR)	F M O'Brien	7	11-4	A P Cawley	9/1
Mistake 1st, led until 2nd, chased leader until 4th, chased clear leading pair, slight peck 5th, ridden and lost 3rd well before 3 out, soon outpaced, mistake 2 out, went modest 4th at the last opened 13/2
5th	1	3 Huff And Puff	Miss V Williams	7	11-4	S Thomas	8/1
Mid-division, went modest 4th before 5th, no impression, mistake 2 out, droppped to 5th at the last opened 12/1

Filler...

Tumbleweed Central....

Yeah its been a very quiet few days now as the weather has ripped the racing anew arsehole...rain , rain , wind , wind and this morning its Frost.....which leaves just the AW meeting at Wolvo for fun...fuck that..think its time for a fun EW Yankee or similar and then just take the day off...

1. INSOLENCEOFOFFICE - 4th ( Beaten a HD @ 3/1 )
Has to go on the very short shortlist as this AW specialist is in great heart currently after won cozily last week and looks a very strong FAP only bet.

2. Trinityelitedotcom looks the likeliest winner in this however in such a tight race its not worth getting involved. - HD 2nd ( Beaten @ 1.08 )

3. Another race to leave alone as most are unreliable and closely matched..Thataboy is the best bet but its a no bet race.

4. Absolute fucking dog shit.....

5. Move Along....

6. I do like PRIME EXHIBIT for this , running well and consistently with proven ability on the surface i think it will take a smart run to lower his colours today. - 1st @ 7/4

7. RUWAIYAN is my call here in a race full of under performing , regressive or inconsistent animals....

So there we are..a very poor days racing that will not bring the crowds in....EW TRIXIE for me then on 1, 6 & 7..GL , enjoy your Sunday folks..see you next Sat hopefully..

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Ouch......

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