Monday, 14 March 2016

Cheltenham Day 1 Continued.....

RACE 2

No big summary here as there is no EW value with the fav scaring off all the opposition and i really see no point in taking on Douvan as its my opinion that this is the single greatest horse since Arkle and even at 1/2 its a cracking bet as i see no way this loses ( just like Annie Power i here you all say, well thats fucking racing is what i retort..suck it up or pack it in )....I will be having a big bet on this and including it in my accas with Thistlecrack among others.

DOUVAN to Win quite easy. - DOUVAN WINS very easy...a true class performer packed with power.


RACE 3

This is an insanely tricky handicap but BEG TO DIFFER could have The answers, much improved improving rapidly and bang in form is gteed to run a big race and with 4 or 5 places paid is well worth a sporting EW.
Longbow has had a good look at this and he has nominated UN TEMPS POUR TOUT and SPRING HEELED both should be a decent price and both are more than capable of running a solid fun race.

Best Bet: EW Tri-Dutch. UN TEMPS POUR TOUT Wins @ 11/1..BoooM ;-))

RACE 4

For me THE race of the day, the CHAMPION HURDLE and it looks wide open with at least 8 strong runners plus ANNIE POWER.
One of the best Mares EVER that also has lost only two races ever but both were at Cheltenham including the mares race last year when she would have pissed in had it not been for Walsh slipping out the side as they skipped over the last withe race already Won!!!!!...a race btw that cost me me so much more than cash alone......anyway thats a story for another day.
Can Annie beat the boys?...Lets look at the competition...

1.THE NEW ONE
A horse that should have won more than it has and was once rated by me as the best since sliced bread but has gone considerably off the boil, still travels well, still has class but is vulnerable to both peers and improvers alike and it would have to be 33/1 or better for me to get involved and then it would be just for fun as i dont expect it to place.

2.HARGAM
See above but with scope and is not the best finisher and as much as i like this horse it needs to be in a Grade 2 to get that winning thread back.

3.MY TENT OR YOURS
A beautiful runner from Hendo that has a 703 day holiday to overcome but i really dont think thats an issue and this will make them all work if fully wound.Worked well the other day at Sandown but could blow up massively its just possible to say and the price you are getting is based on historical data not current or relevant and its just a gamble with a blindfold could win but could blow up.

4.PEACE AND CO
Been hugely disappointing this term , has a wonderful cruising speed but has blown up on both occasions and cannot be trusted not to do it again however a return to form makes it hard to beat but thats a tricky call and not for me.

5.TOP NOTCH
Another superstar from Hendo that has massively under performed this year and i really cant see this winning but i can see all Hendo runners cruising well but i havnt seen anything to suggest a sustained run is forthcoming.

6.NICHOLAS CANYON / SEMPRE MEDICI / IDENTITY THIEF
All three have very similar profiles and all have similar chances any or all can get involved but i have a feeling its place bombing for these only.

Best EW BET is probably CAMPING GROUND

So looking through this i simply dont see anything good enough to beat Annie however at 2/1 and racing against much stronger competition than  expected in a race in which Mares have only ever triumphed 3 times racing over an inadequate trip spells danger danger danger and i simple cannot advise a bet on it, Will probably win but not for me but is worth sticking in the odd acca.

Best Bet : EW bets on Hargam , The New One and Peace n Co with a WIN on Annie Power.

Annie Power WINS Very Easily ;-)

RACE 5

Next up as we have the MARES HURDLE and another race with another Mullins hot pot in the shape of VROUM VROUM MAG and this imo will simply demolish what looks like a field of average handicappers this will be one of the biggest shocks of the festival if this loses...Nailed on Double with Douvan and decent treble with Annie but also have another treble with Thistlecrack

WIN BET: VROUM VROUM MAG ( nap ) - WINS - 1st @ 1.90 ;-)...5 from 5...BooM

RACE 6

Katie Walsh and Nina Carberry..whatever they ride back EW.

RESULT:MEASUREMYDREAMS ridden by Katie is 3rd..so the PP is Won at £10 so i get 10 times the payout...whatever it is its been agreat day.!!

RACE 7

KATGARY and DOUBLE SHUFFLE in the finale and both EW obviously...

RESULT :



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