Friday, 16 November 2012

Sat @ Cheltenham

Yes its day 2 of the Open Meeting and after a fairly good day yesterday ( just in fron on the day thanks to a cracking trade in the last on Strongbow Legend , Backed at 37.7 and Laid off for a big profit at 4.3 ( hit 3.0 in running and was going well and leading until 2 out then just emptying right out ) , Dodging Bullets put up a gutsy but not impressive display to win in a tactically inept and slow race , Fingal forgot how to jump the last 2 and lost any chance he had as Dynaste ( my only Lay of the day ) won going away and Uncle Junior like Swing Bill in the last secures back to back wins....Its a day of Class and composure and i expect more to come on Saturday...

CHELTENHAM

RACE 1
WIN - VASCO DU RONCERAY - 2nd @ 2.62
EW - FAR WEST - 1st @ 3.05
LONG - McVICAR -
*On paper a tricky day to start off with however closer inspection reveals only 4 have any realistic chance of winning this , the three selections and Dovils Date as the rest have a lot to find just to get involved let alone win, these big open meetings are all about form and ability, not job horses, light weights or gambling missions like you may find at Sedgefield on a rainy Tuesday , and very few races produce shocks in the classier sphere , i know IDK likes this Vasco beast a lot and this is one that has the look of one that has a lot more to offer, admittedly it beat trees fto winning in a canter in what was little more than an exercise gallop but this is the real deal and it will prove its class here but it wont be easy as it faces to very tough to beat rivals.
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RACE 2

WIN - SEA OF THUNDER -
EW - OUR FATHER - 1st @ 3.87
LONG - MASTERS HILL -
*7 Runners, 2 places and incredibly difficult race to assess , i have around 8lb separating top from bottom although official figures shows a bigger divide the net worth of the rating means they are all of a muchness and as such i think its a total guess here as pretty much any of them could win and from a betting perspective i think the play for value would be to have a small dutch on the 4 outsiders at a sliding scale and not fixed return.
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RACE 3

WIN - BRADLEY - 2nd @ 6.88
EW - HARRY THE VIKING -
LONG - GALAXY ROCK -
*Another tough looking affair but only a handful with recent relevant form and ability as most look ungenuine or patently inconsistent and are best avoided , in a long distance race like this you need a proven in form contender and one you know is reliable and will give you a proper run, no room for pretenders here as they will be found out.
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RACE 4

WIN - NADIYA DE LA VEGA - 3rd @ 13.2
EW - HUNT BALL -
LONG - DIVERS -
*A fascinating renewal in which GRANDS CRUS is the red hot Fav but one i am very keen to take on as i have found that in recent years this has run some stinkers when well fancied and i feel this can be safely taken on  as all the form and stat guys will say this is unbeatable however i remember its run in Auteil fto last season and it ran a stinker when it should have carried half the field on its back and won easy and it has flattered to deceive before in the UK , this has two ways of running, either it will travel and win on the bridle or will blow out all together , my advice if your backing this is to back win and place lay as cover , but in all honesty i still feel the Lay on the Fav is the better call.
i would love to see Hunts Ball win but is this a true group horse??..??...lets cross our fingers and hope so as it would be brilliant for racing if it could win , i have had a word to get on Divers EW as the team there are expecting a big run and quietly fancy there chances but rather amusingly i have spoken to Hendo JNR about Nadiya and they will not hear of defeat , to say they are bullish is an understatement apparently its been ripping everything at home to bits and is a proper monster and will be a major force this year, jumps like a stag and stays forever.....so im all over it .
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RACE 5

WIN - LOVECEN -
EW - THEMILANHORSE -
LONG - BOUGGLER -
*Oh my , and it doesnt get any easier with this tough tough race, another punter pinsticker race and i have to admit i have gone to IDK for a solution here , hopefully hes in form ;).
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RACE 6

WIN - SWAMPFIRE -
EW - ULYS DE CHARMIL - NON-RUNNER
LONG - ROGER BEANTOWN -
*At this stage of the day i would quit if i was ahead or get a lump on the Alan King beast ( EW ) and hope...
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Have a great day everyone and lets hope we do better with our Placepot today!!...

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