Saturday, 25 January 2014

Sunny Saturday

 Morning Campers ,
After another week of dirge we have a very decent looking couple of Saturday cards at Cheltenham and Doncaster today with quite a few big names on show and a couple of hot " Niche " races ( these are the races in which i partake my Pro stimulus ) .
 Quick look back through the week and tbh it was much ado about nothing until the legend that is Barney Curley got involved on Weds  , ok he was directly involved but you can bet a pound to a dollar he was behind the scenes of the monster coup that took place.
The coup involved 4 horses that had some form of ownership or training ( he used to train and own plus gamble ) connection to him , the first runner had not run for 2 years + like Donovan other runner, the third was a hurdler now with the Leech's which was looking to shed its maiden tag and the final fruit to be absorbed was trained by Butler old friend and training associate now all 4 WON costing the bookies Hundreds ( Thousands ) if not millions of pounds as they had a 24 hour dec price range of 20/1 , 10/1 , 9/1 and 6/1 yet they went off at 1.8 , 3.25 , 1.6 and 1.8...

Now the form masters and the anti win brigade were all out in force crying foul and saying that this sort of coup or behavior only denigrates the sport and shows it in a bad light ..to them i say fuck off and bollocks.

Look and as AoB would say " Listen "...i will give you an example > i once purchased a horse from John Oxx in Ireland , it was rated 95 after 5 runs and although still a maiden had run a couple of very nice races and against future winners , we got it back to England and had it stabled and about 4 weeks later the colt suffered a training injury which took 8 months to sort out then it took another 4 months to get proper race fit ...then disaster ..another sodding injury which meant it was going to be sidelined in total for another 12 months ..then some 600 days later ( after costing me a fortune in fees and bills ) it hits the track as we send it down to Wolverhampton it had been allotted ( had only previously raced on turf ) a AW rating mark of just 56 and was priced up at 12/1.....this was obviously taken as we smashed it to bits driving the price down to 7/4F.......and it duly WON by 6L easing down....i then sold it and it never raced for me again nor have i seen it race in the UK...
Now..was this a " sting " or a coup " or was this simply a horse that was effectively 40LB " well in " smashing far inferior rivals as it was entitled to on old form?...Similar or same story cases can be made certainly for the 3 flat runners that won on Wed' as they all had prev' marks in the 80's , 90's and 100+ and they were all now racing off 45 - 50 which meant that they were very well in.

Some argued that the form profile was utter bollocks...well i put it to you thus , yes they come 10/10 , 9/9 and 10/11 etc but these races were far Superior...if a horse races in the Cherry Hinton and is last , then the Dewhurst and is last and then the Queen Mary and is down the field all it means it has been showing well at home but wasnt good enough but when dropped into a class 6 shitball maiden at Lingfield it shud in theory at least be good enough to hose up...now if the same horse doesnt race for two years and re-races off a stupidly low mark then c'est le vie....

And as for punters whining...well your a lazy bunch of cunts..simples...the clues are there to be seen and read , " mug punters " are often too lazy to read form , archives, follow betting patterns etc.. and rely too heavily on blind luck ..and when the cards dont fall they start talking shit.....

Yesterday we had Spencer on one of the great Doctors " Gabrials " this was due to race on Thurs but got pulled out as they felt the Friday race was considerably easier....this went off at a nice price and duly pissed up as Spencer went for the Jugular , made all and ran away with it....these are the clues punters need to look for....

Anyway..onto Saturdays Racing...

The First race to grab my Attention was the 1240 @ Cheltenham a race in which i have a nod and a wink for that im hoping means more than a first clue to the early onset of racing's tourettes...The horse in question is KENTUCKY HYDEN which as i type is a rather large 9.8 and this simply has to be taken.
Already told to me by the great man himself that this is probably the best Juvenile in the yard and the first two races were barometers leads me to suggest that this is a horse bought along steadily with one main aim......The Triumph Hurdle , and this race today can be considered a serious trial and it will require a few pounds of improvement from KH as he has already been beaten by La Rocher and Ballyglasheen but they were both close races and todays Fav was a further 6L back in one of those..which i find odd as all the four mentioned have scope but KH probably has most.
Over from France , hacked up then pitched in at the deep end...the horse has class and ability and im hoping today will see the story unfold....either that or its gonna be a long ol day as i have quite a meaty bet on this ( i am as i always am trading out tho at around 2.58 and 1.78 ).

My LOTD was going to be Rock on Ruby but thats a Non Runner now which is a shame...

Staying in Cheltenham we also have a couple of likely hot pots racing in this Novice event in Red Sherlock and Rathvinden however i think this race is wide open with any or all being possible winners.
The field all have improvement to come, yes more some than others but the fact remains there is little more than 8L that separate this field and both tactics and/or errors will play a major role in deciding the outcome.
THE BET here for me has to be a PLACE LAY DUTCH on the two favs as they are both odds on which is paying around 1.20 currently..yes its a tight margin but for a PRO bet it looks a very likely source of income when you have EVERY other runner with you and no weakness.
You could also dutch the other 4 ( all double figures ) , lay either RS or Rath'..the opportunities are endless in truth as this race is heavily stacked in the punters favour.
AUBUSSON would be my stand alone pick at around 9.0 as this Won both starts , has Won in these poor conditions ( easily accounting for a decent field ) and won in a time that Red Sherlock has been nowhere near , its a CD winner that ticks every box and represents a great bet for your Sat' Punter.

Lastly at Cheltenham we see the return of the magnificent BIG BUCKS a horse in many ways like no other , couldnt jump for shit and was a nervous chaser but as a hurdler it has no equal and has won its last 18 Races on the spin many without breaking sweat however this has been off for a while ( injured ) and is now 11 so this may well be his swan song ( i have been informed this is his last season )  and he will be cherry ripe but one thing i dont like is grabbing fools gold.
What do i mean " Fools Gold " ??..well my friends what i mean is this..if BB had only been off for say 12 months and was making its usual and standard seasonal debut ( and possibly if he was 9 or 10 still ) then its price would be no better than 1.35 - 1.5 ( that is generous ) as this has already easily beaten 3rd fav Reve di Sivola in the Long Distance Hurdle ( lto ) and when i say Won i actually mean pissed in..it literally cantered over the line....RDS was simply dismantled....this was not a one off as BB had previously destroyed many a beast with its last run of note probably being in the 2012 World Hurdle when  Voler La Vedette..gave it a good go up the straight but was still out stayed and beaten actually im thinking BB should be 1.22 as i write but it remains unchanged at 2.2...this is crazy!!..the bookies very rarely give anything away...so why the HUGE price...and it is huge...??...one of a few things could be at play here , they know something we dont , they think an upstart is ready to take the old head , Big Bucks is finished ??....all of that is circumspect and conjuncture , .....i do smell a rat tho and at the price i am thinking possibly BACK WIN and PLACE LAY as cover....very very suspicious i am of this....None of these are Young bar the disappointing At Fishers Cross and " IF " Big Bucks still carries at least 75% of its ability and athleticism then it will win and win easy....but again..the price....i have all sorts of alarm bells going off inside my head...i think i may just stick it in with some doubles to make no loss trebles..should be great to watch...

I was going to cover a couple at Donny but the clock has ticked itself away.....Good luck today , have fun and enjoy..ttfn x.


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