WAWAW...

Morning All ,

                   Well the end is nigh well for the flat season at least as we rapidly draw a close on what has been a season full of anti climaxes but we have enough in the NH locker to keep us sufficiently occupied and interested and this coupled with the AW winter season is enough to keep us rolling and ticking over nicely , this post has been generated for Simon " WAWAW " Cooper who has a few days off work and is off on the lash n going to Donny races so fingers crossed i can give him some assistance in nailing a few winners and making the day even more fun.....so lets go....

DONCASTER

RACE 1 : A 2 yr old Nursery isnt a great way to start as these are betting minefields where quite often either the fav wins or the rank outsider ( or one off )  with all the concessions available these are much like a Hcap for 2 yr olds and you will often see horses with little or no form suddenly running well...Fortunately the ground is only a wee bit soft and mostly good to soft so i will produce the card on the basis that the ground is good , so looking back 3 of the last 4 running's of this have been won by relatively fancied sorts however if you look thru the last 6 then we see 3 winners at 11/1 , 16/1 and 33/1 so that shows how tough it can be.

Last Years winner won and raced to a rating of 88 ( now rated 110 ) and Roaldhino won with a rating of 86 so that gives you an idea of the performance required to win ( fair imo ) and with all the facts at hand i think the three to focus on will be BOLD APPEAL , Lockstock Hall and Best Example as these all have the form to show up well , will like the trip and have conditions to suit.

WIN - BEST EXAMPLE - 

EW - LOCKSTOCK HALL - 

LONG - BOLD APPEAL - 

                                   

Comments : Best bet is probably an EW on Bold Appeal but with all races check the prices for a dutch

                                                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 2 : Now we have a rather tough looking Maiden for the Fillies and with so many looking very well bred this is a bettors minefield however we do have a few with experience and/or form and i think it will be prudent to stick with these.

The Winner for me does look to be the Daughter of Sea The Stars YARROW after this started slowly fto and raced greenly being pushed along at hal way but did then respond and run on well to finish inside 2L of the winner when coming 2nd over 1m on the polytrack and this form and experience could just swing it her way however she wont have it all her own way as Star of Seville also looks a nice runner from the Gosden yard and this has a similar profile and finally we have one that will need to show improvement but i think thats a given and thats Mythical Moment from the Haggas yard a lovely looking filly by Authorized that could and should run a much better race this time.

WIN - YARROW  - 

EW - STAR OF SEVILLE - 1st @ 4.80

LONG - MYTHICAL MOMENT  - 

                                   

Comments : Best bet is the Dutch on Yarrow and Star of Seville as its my belief that the two of these will be very hard to beat.

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RACE 3 : And its another Maiden...and again for the fillies....jeez tough for the punters...The form on offer from those that have run is much weaker here with only FILAMENT the standout beaten on 3/4L fto and with natural progression this is the one to beat.

We do have some very nice looking unraced sorts on show with some royally bred with Namhroodrah , Beautiful Romance and Striding Out all looking to get a win on the books at the first attempt and my breeding book has little to separate these three so its a case of pick n hope.

WIN - FIGMENT  - 3rd @ 7/4

EW - BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE - 1st @ 4.41

LONG - NAMHROODAH - NR

                                   

Comments : Best bet is possibly an EW on Filament but its a tough one to call in this Div as im also quite keen on Beautiful Romance.

                                                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 4 : And its yet another Maiden....for the boys this time...Udododontyou peaks my interest as its by Lope de Vega and will probably go off  at an insane price but could run well however that wud be a small stakes fun punt as there appear to be plenty in this with far better chances and the best of those maybe TRUE RESPECT by Shamardal who i think could be a bit special and quite often the boys in blue keep some of their better prospects until the back end and this could be either smart or backwards...i also like Penag Paparaja and of course it would be folly to leave out THAHAB a well bred sort owned by Al Shaqab and trained by the master at this game Hannon with the remainder much of a muchness.

WIN - TRUE RESPECT - 4th

EW - THAHAB - 3rd @ 3.85

LONG - PENANG PAPARAJA  - 

                                   

Comments : I like th dutch with True Respect and Thahab here as i think these are most likely to run well but its another tough race for punting and i would limit stakes again.

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RACE 5 : Punters nightmare as it doesnt get any easier with this 6f 22 runner hcap , AETNA will come into this with a massive chance having shown some great consistency over the season and this is coupled with some very strong winning and placed form none better than when winning a 20 runner sprint at York on soft ground..if this gets the breaks it should run a huge race , Doc Hay has been in great form as well with winning form over 5 , 6 and 7f on all ground types this will be there at the end and i think Another wise kid could surprise a few with Lee riding this has great place claims.

WIN - AETNA - NR

EW - DOC HAY - NR

LONG - ANOTHER WISE KID - 

                                   

Comments : Tough race and not a great betting heat but Aetna is worth a bet as this is probably the class act and with a clear run will go very close.

                                                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 6 : Next up is a 1m6f race and with 20 runners things dont get any easier...NOVIRAK could supply Freddie T with another winner today as this will unlike most really enjoy the trip the ground and arrives in form and will be a big player in this , others to note are Almagest and Norway Cross both of whom arrive in form and from stables that know how to ready a hcap winner.

WIN - NOVIRAK  - 2ND @ 8.20

EW - ALMAGEST - 

LONG - NORWAY CROSS - 

                                   

Comments : Another tough race but Novirak looks a good call here as most dont stay the trip at pace.

                                                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 7 : Finally its taken most of the day but we have a race to get stuck into as we have a good field size of ten and its over a proper distance of 1m2f so lets hope we have a good un....well we dont have a nap yet but i do like CAPE CASTER who easily gets trip and a bit further is in form and looks a good bet here today , Raven Ridge and Top o The Glas should be good enough to get involved

WIN - CAPE CASTER - 2nd @ 6.40

EW - RAVEN RIDGE - 

LONG - TOP O THE GLAS - 4th

                                   

Comments : Cape Caster looks a strong EW bet here and will good for the doubles or trebles.

                                                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

FINALE : The getting out stakes and after what can be only described as a rough day gets no easier as its not only a 20 runner hcap but its for the ams as well so its just a crazy finish , anything Serena rides warrants respect as she is a very capable jockey and does quite well in these but Stephen Walker is also very good in these and i think he could be the answer on a horse that is in good form and consistent , a straightforward ride and will take the beating although its only won once is relatively lightly raced with just the 10 outings and its only been beaten by small amounts in tight finishes of late so i think this should go well.

WIN - ARYIZAD - 3rd @ 5.60

EW - HUSSAR BALLAD - 

LONG - MIXED MESSAGE - 

                                   

Comments : Tough day ...very tough and i would have Aryizad in some mixed EW doubles to have interest or a win to get me out of trouble...good luck.

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Champions Day ~~

Evening mofo's ,
                         Well yesterday went pretty much like clockwork...Both EW Naps getting placed ( nice double ) , the Win NAP Won at 2.54 , the Pro Bet LAY got well beat and the PPL Bet was an easy profit so all in all a full house of profitable results ...thats what makes a good day and i managed to sneak 9 holes in whilst getting a new boiler fitted and my central heating upgraded ;-)....so Champions Day is upon us and that pretty much signals the end of the flat season proper...The NH season is now starting to swing into full action with Cheltenham on the go and that makes for a great Saturday of racing , we have Ascot champions day with cruel soft ground which has depleted some fields but still enough quality to get excited and we also have another crack at Chelts as they hold day 2 of their opening extravaganza and i dont really know why but im really kinda looking forward to the NH game this year as i feel let down by the flat as i expected so much yet i feel it delivered so little...Kingman was amazing and was a true world class beast , Australia would have been great with a better jockey riding ( sorry JoB fans but Ryan Moore would have made a difference ) and Taghrooda a wonder filly along with the enigmatic Treve,,,she did fuck all all year turns up at the Arc and turns that into a procession...hmm i was a bit wtf was that with it.......Sole Power remains the sprint king but this will be his last year as we have some smart older horses coming thru and the balance of power plus age will see the swing, none the less i yearn to see some of the NH game give me the thrills i feel i have lacked over the last few months....come on Hendo sort your team out and stop giving me and Young Nicky such shit info....;-/

Right so lets cast our beady eyes over firstly Ascot then Cheltenham...

ASCOT 

Race : 1 , We start off the day with the Long Distance Cup a race over 2m and can someone explain to me how the fuck LEADING LIGHT is 3.80....grab this NOW!!....what a fucking gift from the bookmaking gods , loves the soft ground , stays all day and is one of Europes outstanding stayers...i would honestly have made it clear 6/4F so getting this price gives me shivers its just awesome!!...you are talking about the winner of a Gold Cup , the Vintage Stakes and the St Leger...this is a seriously class horse and although there are some smart staying types in this like Estimate, Biographer and Forgotten Rules this Leading Light will only truly shine over 2m + anything less and its a gamble but we back to the ground..its gonna be testing and most wont like it but LL loves it...this is a cracking bet ( at the odds ) and i urge you all to have a go ( not a Nap on my form cast but a cracking value bet ) .

RESULT : Unplaced ( Bumped, hampered, impeded it had everything thrown at it in the last third...)

Race 2 : , Now we have the Champion Sprint which has been some what affected due to some early stage withdrawals but its still a great race none the less and the ground will prove pivotal and the two i like here are MAAREK who at 8.40 represents some cracking value as he has shown not a lot of late but on ground he has not liked and now back on this slush i expect to see Maarek show his true form on the ground he has been crying out for and i have this alongside GORDON LORD BYRON who isnt the smartest sprinter but does the 7f trip really well and i feel that stamina at speed edge will see him last home better than most and he could run from the pack and take plenty out and the 7.20 is a fair if not outstanding price but this for me makes for a great looking dutch , of the others i feel Eton Forever has a good EW shout at 16/1 or higher who is another soft ground racer with the current and back form to get involved.

RESULT : 1st @ 7.28 ( Maarek was 4th @ 10.28 )

Race 3 : , The Fillies n Mares is next and over 1m4f this looks a tough race to get a design on and Seal of Approval who is vying for favoritism will have been laid out for this after winning it last year but has run so flat i think it can be justifiably over looked.
I like Hadaatha but i feel the price is all wrong so even at 7.20 im not interested , Silk Sari has been running well but has beaten nothing of note and mostly have been flawed  but as i look thru the field i see not a great deal or anything that stands out clearly and its the 6.60 Fav and that price is just on the right side of good but its not a good race for favs..stats shmats...ok i have read and re-read all form available and gone thru them all several times and the only bet i can see is the one on SILK SARI ( EW ) ..i would say not outstanding but would make a great filler for an EW acca or similar.
RESULT : 2nd @ 6.73

Race 4 : , Now we have potentially the days big race , the QEII and over 1m this trip for all age has been won by some super stars in previous years inc the likes of the mighty Frankel , Excelebration , Mark of Esteem , Rip Van Winkle and Dubai Millemium to name a few so you see it takes a star to win this.
This year is a bit odd as we have no stand out miler ( in attendance or still racing to be relevant ) Kingman would have won if taken part but thats not to be so on the basis of all known form and incorporating the ground conditions and race conditions i think the bet here is a EW on CHARM SPIRIT who only tasted defeat when beaten by Night of Thunder in the 2000 Guineas but has improved by leaps n bounds since where as NoT has stagnated and i think the Frenchie will take a world of beating in this , Night of Thunder himself plus Intergral are the only other two with any real class and they will again make a race of it....these three i feel will be the ones fighting out the finish.
RESULT : 1st @ 7.86

Race 5 : , And still the magic rolls on with the days next mahoosive race...the Qipco Champion Stakes won recently by Farhh and Frankel and previously by New Approach and Bosra Sham ...wow what a roll call and although im not sure we will see something of their caliber im sure the winner we have to be top drawer.
We can keep the Frankel line going by cheering home its full brother NOBLE MISSION and on soft ground over its best trip ( this 1m2f ) i think we have every chance of doing so and at 7.40 ( current price ) or better this is an outstanding EW bet ( EW NAP ) , This has recently Won the Tattersalls Gold Cup on soft ground over 10f , the Huxby Stakes on soft over 10f , The Gordon Richard Stakes over 10f on Soft with all its inferior or disappointing runs coming over further this has ticks in all the boxes and a touch of class and will run a huge race.
CDA still has class but is very easy to oppose and at 2.72 is also a PRO BET LAY , Al Kazeem looks a spent force , Ruler of the World has ability but rarely puts a shift in , Pethers Moon isn't really a group 1 horse , Free Eagle looks a top class sort and cannot be ignored and if you believe the hype then this race is already a done deal.....time will tell...
So we have a conflict a race in which we have both an EW Nap and a Pro Bet LAY...which bet is the better bet and which offers the greater RR Ratio ??...well in truth at the current odds there is little in it as the Fap on NM is a similar RRR as the Lay on CDA ???.....im gonna say the best bet in this race is the FAP on Noble Mission....only just but it gets the call.

RESULT : Noble Mission 1st @ 10.43

Race 6 : , and to round the card off we have a bonkers 28 runner 1m Hcap...get yer pins out boys n girls....The three i like in this for the PP and for dutching are Chatez , Buckstay and VELOX.

RESULT : all unplaced....

                                                                ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

So that has sorted out Champions day do we have any ammo or thoughts indeed on Cheltenham ??....

CHELTENHAM

Race 1 : Very tight race to open the card up and a race full of ex pointers ( some prolific ) and a cagey play is required as the book has this has a two runner race , I think in fairness the top two in the market are gonna prove tough to beat but from a betting perspective ( ie : if i was at the track or wanting a fun run for my money ) then i think an EW on Bally Beaufort is the play its been backed from 15/1 into 8/1 already for chump change and its current price offers nothing but if i could get 16/1 or better before the race id have a go if not then Byron Blue might be worth a look at 25/1 or better but these are speculative punts where your hoping for certain scenarios to play out rather than just relying on your horse to step up as IN THE ROUGH looks the likeliest winner on paper and isnt a bad bet at 2.92.

RESULT : In The Rough 1st @ 3.60

Race 2 : Very nice looking Class 2 Hcap chase with some very decent sorts in the line up , ERICHT @ 8/1 looks a decent EW bet in this having never run unplaced when coming off a break of 60 days or more and is a class animal on his day and with the Hendo yard in tip top shape i see no reason why this shouldnt run a decent race , ive not had a word for it as yet but i had " words " regarding the state of the yard last week and everything is in good order , Champion Court is a lovely type but may have too much weight today , Claret Cloak is almost there , Johns Spirit would have been primed for a repeat victory and will surely give his all and Bennys Mist n Sew on Target are both capable making this look quite a hot renewal...exciting stuff indeed.

RESULT : Ericht 3rd @ 9.80

Race 3 : This has PPL Written all over it , will check the prices again tmrw but i think its another cracker.

RESULT : NO BET

Race 4 : Another decent looking Hcap Chase and another tight competitive race in which many come into the reckoning , i have two i like here for completely different reasons , firstly ALFIE SPINNER who is on a really good mark now and will be winning soon as the handicapper keeps knocking a few pound off here n there and at 30/1 is well worth some EW interest and secondly we have LE BEC who is imo the real class act here and would have gone close to winning the RSA at the festival had he not fallen 4 out when up with the leaders and looking good and at 6.6 is a very strong EW bet.

RESULT : Alfie Spinner 3rd @ 17.24 ( Le Bec was a Non Runner)

Race 5 : A patchy work a day Hcap hurdle up next but its ANDY KELLY that has got me in a lather as my spies in the ECL camp tell me this will go very close to winning with a clear round  and the 7/1 isnt a bad price at all , however i have an even stronger report for ACT ALONE and at 7.2 offers similar value so im gonna not look anywhere else and just lump the dutch on these...i think its a cracking bet.

RESULT : 

Race 6 : PPL Race...Nuff said ;-)...
RESULT : No Bet

Race 7 : Traditional end to a NH card the NHF race and i have a good word for HOW ABOUT IT here , former PTP Winner has been doing good work at home and has been impressing and they think it should go close to winning but this is a hot looking race so confidence is tempered...its more of a tester than anything else.

RESULT : Unplaced but nothing could have lived with the 11/4f and winner as it demolished these...


Today looks another solid cracking days racing with so much on offer my best bets are 

1. Leading Light - EW - £500 Loss

2. Maarek / GLB & Andy Kelly/ Act Alone in a dutch double - £500 Loss

3. Le Bec / Ericht / In the Rough/ Leading Light in EW Doubles and 4 fold. - £26.54 Profit

4. Both PPL Bets - No Bets

5.FAP on Noble Mission. - £1000+ Profit


Good Luck and have a great Day.

Happy Friday ;)

Morning Folks,
            Well this week has seen the usual October onslaught of rain n pain and the ground on some courses has been almost unraceable so its been slim pickings although i have hit a few nice PPL bets this week to keep me ticking over and a few of my members on our Racing channel on Facebook have been on fire with the likes of Paul " Stevo " Stephenson , Seamus Furlong and the enigma that is Eric Winner all kicking in some winners and the odd winning double making our racing family versatile , fun and on occasions very profitable.... ( keep it up guys , great work ) ...so what makes today a Happy Friday ?? , well we have two meetings of choice , Firstly we have the season opener from the mighty Cheltenham and we always get some nice sorts running here with plenty of betting opportunities as the NH cranks it up and secondly we have a cracking looking card at Newmarket ( HQ ) as they start their Champions Weekend and the whole card looks nice but it is almost tragic that the ground has cut up soft with it potentially racing like its heavy and after a days racing im thinking it could be pretty poor tmrw...see how we get on today.

So lets start the day off by taking a look at Cheltenham , ...

Race 1 : This looks ultra tough and one simply cant get involved here as they all look decent prospects but FRAMPTON does look like it has the ability to be " extra " special after winning fto beating the useful Milord and never off the bridle and although this is a far tougher test this could be the answer but as i stated this is only speculative and is a no bet race for me.RESULT : 4th  ( and well beaten , no complaints ) 

Race 2: This would appear a far easier race to assess as COURT MINSTREL looks a cut above these already , this won a Scottish Champion Hurdle so is not without speed and stamina and it would seem that he is also a tidy jumper and is certainly a horse on the up , not fully extended and we dont know just how good but i will be surprised if hes not upto giving these a good tonking ( NAP ) . RESULT : 1st ( Won Easy )  @ 2.56

Race 3 : Cracking opening race to the Pertemps series and this 17 runner charge will be a high quality affair and its full of promising sorts.
Henryville , the 3 JP Runners and Syabrite all have it in them to win while San Telm and Samingarry could surprise however im going to offer DESTROYER DEPLOYED one last chance to shine after an indifferent spell chasing this classy sort ( on his day ) is back hurdling and off a very fair mark and a nothing weight ( after Johns extra allowance has come off ) give this every chance and if in the mood could strike at a very nice price  ( currently 30/1 ) and i think it has to be worth some EW consideration ~( will be getting some from me ) its not a great bet in the sense that if you compare its actual chance of winning ( true price ) against its implied chance of winning ( the price you get from the bookmaker ) as i would have had it in around the 40-50/1 mark in truth as its overall form profile compared to some of these is piss poor however...it does have a touch of class and has plenty enough ability to strike if in the mood and with all conditions in favour i think its worth a tickle or two. RESULT : Unplaced ( Blundered when going well and not recover, jury is still out , Syabrite Wins  @ 10/1 ) 

Race 4 : This is a tricky little 5 runner race and in truth a case of sorts can be made for all so with that and the current market forces allowing im simply going to smash this as a PPL race as its a 10/10 and its simply too good to miss. RESULT : BoooM as the Fav is Unplaced @ 1.95 ( 1.41 ) 

Race 5 : COMMISSIONED...yes i know its a 4/9 shot but i see little point in going against it  , i wouldnt back it as i see this race a watching brief but i would be mighty shocked if it didnt win so it becomes a race for me to leave alone ...although....if it was backed in more to say 1.36 - 1.42 then i think there is enough in this race to al least make a race of it and i think you can go for a decent trade off at 1.82 - 2.16 with little loss liability should it not come off. RESULT : 1st @ 4/9F ( Won Easy )

Race 6 : Its an Amateur event and i just follow Steven Clements in these

Race 7 : And to finish we have a really good looking conditional jockeys race with some very high profile names in attendance , Now there is some rather interesting facts to take with this, firstly....Nico ( De Boinville ) is a family friend and a bloody good rider and horseman and he has had some cracking wins for his gaffer who is of course the erstwhile Nicky Henderson ( Hendo ) and to see him " jocked off " and riding Drumlang is disappointing but Peter Carberry is another friend of the family but his last 14 rides have been fruitless , his win rate is low and his overall profile leaves a bit to find but he is friends with the owner Buckley ( Bucky ) so without knowing the full facts i can only guess as to how this riding arrangement come about but Hammersley Lake would appear to have a leading chance if the rider can produce a professional sit.

Mountain King is a lovely looking sort and will make them all go and has arguably the best conditional on board in the shape of  M ( Pron~ My Heel )  Nolan and this distance winner has to go close with a clear round.

Finally we have my selection , the horse carrying my money and that is VIBRATO VALTAT who was 3rd in the Swinton on his last outing having beaten fair n square the 4/9f  Sign of Victory from the Hendo yard previously and for me this is the class act and a simple reproduction of that run sees him place or win and at 6/1 is my EW NAP . - RESULT : 3rd @ 4.10 ( Ran well and hit 1.36 on the run to the line )

and here endeth the Cheltenham day....hope its helped in some small way , now we move onto Newmarket....

Race 1 :  A 15 runner Nursery is tough but in the soft its almost suicidal betting so stakes are at the min if at all so it is with great trepidation that i will speculatively nominate FIDELMA MOON as a sporting EW , will love the trip and ground and won well enough lto to suggest she is upto this and being the 40/1 rank outsider you can have a little EW bet for fun. RESULT : UNPLACED ( Ran ok until weakening away over 2f out, not good enough winner was a 16/1 Burke runner )

Race 2 : Next up its the Cornwallis Stakes for 2 yr olds and this is usually a decent race and this a good un but i am rather keen on STRATH BURN who is imo top rated and has easily the best form on offer, is lightly raced and looks the class act plus his run behind Kool Kompany is easily good enough to get involved...++ the ground was softer than this when he run in France so i see that being no problem if anything its an advantage so all said n done i think this is a cracking wee bet and at 6/1 is my EW NAP . RESULT : 2nd @ 6.26 ( Ran a solid race, no complaints )

Race 3 : Another cracker now and this time its the Middle Park and we have a Red Hot fav in the shape of Ivawood and in all honesty after witnessing how it destroyed the fields in its last two races when making all i fail to see what else can win...Kool Kompany is a big price @ 12 and this could easily be a 1-2 for the Hannon Team and the FC is not a bad bet but i just cant get away from IVAWOOD being the winner here even at 1.74....RESULT : 2nd @ 1/2F ( Beaten a Nose , ran well enough with more to come, Godolphin winner may bring a smile to their yard for next season )

Race 4 : Now we have the Fillies Mile ( again for 2 yr olds ) and i think it will take a very smart performance to see LUCIDA beaten and i think a double with Ivawood is a decent bet as she won on Yielding ground on her debut. RESULT : Well Beaten ( Unplaced )  by the AoB runner ( 7/1 ) @ 6/5F

Race 5 : And the big races dont stop yet as we now move onto the Dewhurst which is one of the biggest trials races of the year for 2 yr olds and with previous winners like Dawn Approach , Parish Hall and War Command this usually throws up something smart and although the ground has turned a few away i still feel it will be a good un that wins and i am thinking that the Pro Bet here is to LAY the Fav which is currently 2.34 as i am struggling to find a winner although i do quite like the look of Smugglers Cove ( 3rd @ 7/2 ) . RESULT : FAV was UNPLACED @ 2.50

Race 6 : Now we have a Hcap thats all dressed up as a Group 3 over 7f and its as wide open a race as you'll find but i think THAWAANY who loves the soft ground is a nice prospect with an outstanding chance here and at 3.80 looks a good bet to get out of jail with , its a good day with some great action , enjoy and have fun...ttfn x. RESULT : NON - RUNNER

                                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Sunny Saturday ;)

Morning All ,

Its a cracking early start with the fog lifting and the sun shining and as we roll towards the end of the Flat season we get to enjoy the last couple of big weekends ( Flat ) before the NH brigade really roll out in strength and take over but we must talk about the Intermediate yesterday at NA where Wonderful Charm Won and reversed a 5L loss to Taquin De Seuil by beating it this time by 24L now i dont know quite how much we can take from this as the whole race suffered from runners sloppy jumping and hampering one n other but Wonderful Charm who traveled indifferently got a second wind and when at the front was never going to lose and after contesting a few tasty races last year has grown and could prove to be quite a star , yes , more is needed but like the others he will come on for this run and will pick up another couple of decent rated events through the season, TDS was miserable , Colour Squadron always flatters to deceive and Black Thunder although a nice sort isnt quite as good as people think so the form for me has lots of holes but it was a nice opener from the winner and he should be followed.

Back to today and we have the season finale at York and the Cesarewitch at Newmarket and its here at HQ that i will be mainly focusing on as the placepot if hit could be a very tidy payout indeed.

So without further ado lets crack on...

NEWMARKET

RACE 1
WIN - COMMEMORATIVE - 1st @ 14.50
EW - ORDER OF ST GEORGE -
LONG - BARTHOLOMEW FAIR -

SUMMARY : A 1m race for 2 yr olds and this looks hot hot hot , @ 3.8 the field this is as wide open as you would expect as all the big guns are out to play in a field of pure blue bloods.
All bar one are Distance winners and the last two winners of this race produced a Derby Winner , a Derby 2nd ( & St Leger Winner ) so that itself shows that some good sorts are in the line up but for me the one BIG stat factor is this....O'Brien and Hannon have both had either the winner or both had placed ( 2nd n 3rd )  runners in this race for each of the last 3 years and Hannon this year had Hail Claudius in but withdrew ( possibly the ground ) so only the mercurial and often mimicked AoB is left and imo i will be staggered if this doesnt place as he will have sent something v smart here today and his runner ORDER OF ST GEORGE ( Galileo ) is bred right out of the top drawer out of Another Storm which although comes with a strong USA profile is of the line that gives Gone West and Mr Prospector ( Double sire = Max Lineage ) , this will love the trip and will love any of the expected rain , its first two runs were under whelming in truth and it looked to be a cooler for coolmore however with the ground riding soft for its 3rd run this absolutely hosed up being pulled up to a canter and with conditions in favour this has to go on the shortlist.
Mukhayram has a very similar profile and with almost identical splits and improvement forthcoming i would expect this to be in the firing line as well but the two i fear the most are BARTHOLOMEW FAIR and COMMEMORATIVE Both are impeccably bred sorts and both are rather nicely priced so a nice dutch looks on the cards , this should be a cracker to start the day off.

RESULT / MOANS : ( PRO BET - Lay the Fav ) - WIN
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RACE 2
WIN - BLUE WALTZ -
EW - ALBASHARAH - 1st @ 6.60
LONG - LA BANDERILLA -

SUMMARY : Todays 2nd race is for 3 yrs plus and for the Fillies only over 1m...which seems fine until you notice there are 19 feckin runners....oh deary me.....this is insanely hard to predict, calculate or reason with...and with not really knowing quite how the ground will go or if the draw will have as big effect as usual there is a lot of guesswork here.
As the 4 year olds have dominated in recent years im going to use that stat to help we wheedle the field down...and this now turns into a 7 runner race...much more manageable ;-) , BLUE WALTZ with Hughes riding for Cumani is a standout and this rapidly improving sort could be anything but after hosing up in her Maiden she then went on to hose up again in a decent Hcap both in Softish ground and both over todays distance ...plus plus plus...this has everything going for her, trip , distance , form , Jockey....ground...crikey ..what more do you want ??!!...
Albasharah and La Banderilla will be the two i pick for cover as both of these look like they have been late season primed for this and both will be fresh and La Banderilla has shown she runs well off a break.

RESULT / MOANS : 
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RACE 3
WIN - EPSOM HILL -
EW - CONNECTICUT -
LONG - BATTERSEA -

SUMMARY : The Betfred Stakes now a race over 1m4f for the 3 yr olds and older and with 24 runners this is another that will be staggeringly difficult.
Straight away im just gonna say for me its Connecticut , Battersea , Epsom Hill and Top Tug and in no specific order as i have all four closely rated and i think these should run decent races and hopefully one will keep my PP alive...the pros think otherwise " This looks a cracking contest with Richard Fahey sending a quartet down from North Yorkshire. Ventura Quest may be the best of them but others are preferred. Three run in the Godolphin blue with the unexposed Flag War preferred to Miner's Lamp and Famous Kid. Battersea is still improving and looks a better bet than Connecticut, who has gone up another 5lb since finishing only third in the Melrose at York when behind Adventure Seeker. Stetchworth gets 22lb from stablemate Fire Fighting and could go well upped in distance while Saab Almanal ran a fine race behind Rhombus at Newbury. REWAAYA was given plenty of time to mature after opening her account at Leicester in May. She returned with an effortless victory over this course and distance three weeks ago and, though up a further 9lb, Frankie can steer her to a hat-trick in this as she could be capable of earning some black type before the end of the campaign. "....

RESULT / MOANS : All Unplaced as a few shocks win n place...Placepot burned but cash rich after the first two..so not chasing today , just gonna sit back n enjoy ;)
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RACE 4
WIN - BIG EASY - 1st @ 12.50
EW - MOIDORE -
LONG - COMMUNICATOR / NOBLE SILK -

SUMMARY : Does it get any Easier ??..does it fuck...now we have the 34 runner CESAREWITCH a race over 2m2f with low drawn runners given an advantage....with the last three winners returning at 25/1 , 66/1 and last year again at 66/1 this is not a race for favs....so im laying Quick Jack ( Pro Bet ) and gonna go with Noble Silk , Communicator , Big Easy and Moidore without any level of confidence whatsoever...its a cross your fingers n hope time for the PP...heres what the pros say....
 " See And Be Seen beat Big Easy and a number of these in the Cesarewitch Trial here three weeks ago. He only needs one to drop out to get a run but connections of the second will fancy their chances of revenge. Likely favourite Quick Jack looks poor value now considering he's no certainty to confirm Galway running with Swynmor and Digeanta on today's revised terms while Ray Ward usually finds at least one too good. Nearly Caught is unexposed but has been hard to train while Moidore was only 10th last year, behind runner-up Waterclock and Jonny Delta. Lady Kashaan could sneak into the frame at decent odds and Suegioo won the Chester Cup in May but we'll concentrate on the in-form Teak and RHOMBUS. Both have a 4lb penalty to carry but the former is tough and versatile and stays forever. However, we just prefer Ismail Mohammed's fast-improving four-year-old who is already a course winner and will again be partnered by crack apprentice Cam Hardie, still excellent value for his 3lb claim. "...

RESULT / MOANS : 
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RACE 5
WIN - BELLA NOUF -
EW - JASMINE BLUE -
LONG - COLOURADA -

SUMMARY : And the day progresses with no let up in pain as we have a nice 17 runner maiden for 2 yr olds....crikey o Reilly...Bill Knights Colourada must go into the PP as the form choice however looking at some of these i would be surprised if it was the winner.
JASMINE BLUE interests me greatly as a filly from Galileo for Fitri Hay , Bella Nouf with a strange Haggas/Hughes combo and thats my three....not much one can really say...

RESULT / MOANS : No run for me here..a bit flat..should win the last tho lol...;/
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RACE 6
WIN - PARSLEY - 1st @ 1.09
EW -
LONG -

SUMMARY : And the placepot is rounded off with a farcical 2 runner match...so both go in... although it would be a monster shock if  PARSLEY was to lose this as its miles clear on all known form and ratings and really should have too much and for me that rounds up this fine day....Good Luck.

RESULT / MOANS : Not surprising tho is it haha..a good day overall and im very happy with 4 Winners from 6 Races and some nice prices...
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No Summary just Facts...

We enter the Winter Months slowly but surely and now is the best time to attack the PPL races...

Today we have 2 PPL races and 1 x Stat Lay.

PPL Races are as follows , 

Brighton 14:50 & 15:20 ( £100 Level Stakes as per  )

and the Stat Race ( Always trade at around double SP for Half Stake )  is the Fav in the 15:50 also at Brighton.

RESULTS : 

14:50 > BooooooooM as a 20/1 shot comes 2nd to split the two 5/4JF's ( 3rd was 13L back mind ) = £64 Profit ( Lays were 1.36 & 1.39 )

15:20 > BooooooooooM as a 180/1 Shot WINS and a 14/1 shot is 2nd second with the two Favs last and second last so its a double bubble and a £200 WIN.

15:50 > BoooooooooM as the 3.07  ( BFF ) Wins but trades for any amount at 12.0+ .... ( I traded 50% @ 6.2 for a £48.15 Profit > per £100 staked ) 

Profit / Loss ( PPL ) = £264.00 Profit

Profit / Loss ( SL ) = £48.15 Profit


Easy Monies ;-))))