Saturday, 11 October 2014

Sunny Saturday ;)

Morning All ,

Its a cracking early start with the fog lifting and the sun shining and as we roll towards the end of the Flat season we get to enjoy the last couple of big weekends ( Flat ) before the NH brigade really roll out in strength and take over but we must talk about the Intermediate yesterday at NA where Wonderful Charm Won and reversed a 5L loss to Taquin De Seuil by beating it this time by 24L now i dont know quite how much we can take from this as the whole race suffered from runners sloppy jumping and hampering one n other but Wonderful Charm who traveled indifferently got a second wind and when at the front was never going to lose and after contesting a few tasty races last year has grown and could prove to be quite a star , yes , more is needed but like the others he will come on for this run and will pick up another couple of decent rated events through the season, TDS was miserable , Colour Squadron always flatters to deceive and Black Thunder although a nice sort isnt quite as good as people think so the form for me has lots of holes but it was a nice opener from the winner and he should be followed.

Back to today and we have the season finale at York and the Cesarewitch at Newmarket and its here at HQ that i will be mainly focusing on as the placepot if hit could be a very tidy payout indeed.

So without further ado lets crack on...

NEWMARKET

RACE 1
WIN - COMMEMORATIVE - 1st @ 14.50
EW - ORDER OF ST GEORGE -
LONG - BARTHOLOMEW FAIR -

SUMMARY : A 1m race for 2 yr olds and this looks hot hot hot , @ 3.8 the field this is as wide open as you would expect as all the big guns are out to play in a field of pure blue bloods.
All bar one are Distance winners and the last two winners of this race produced a Derby Winner , a Derby 2nd ( & St Leger Winner ) so that itself shows that some good sorts are in the line up but for me the one BIG stat factor is this....O'Brien and Hannon have both had either the winner or both had placed ( 2nd n 3rd )  runners in this race for each of the last 3 years and Hannon this year had Hail Claudius in but withdrew ( possibly the ground ) so only the mercurial and often mimicked AoB is left and imo i will be staggered if this doesnt place as he will have sent something v smart here today and his runner ORDER OF ST GEORGE ( Galileo ) is bred right out of the top drawer out of Another Storm which although comes with a strong USA profile is of the line that gives Gone West and Mr Prospector ( Double sire = Max Lineage ) , this will love the trip and will love any of the expected rain , its first two runs were under whelming in truth and it looked to be a cooler for coolmore however with the ground riding soft for its 3rd run this absolutely hosed up being pulled up to a canter and with conditions in favour this has to go on the shortlist.
Mukhayram has a very similar profile and with almost identical splits and improvement forthcoming i would expect this to be in the firing line as well but the two i fear the most are BARTHOLOMEW FAIR and COMMEMORATIVE Both are impeccably bred sorts and both are rather nicely priced so a nice dutch looks on the cards , this should be a cracker to start the day off.

RESULT / MOANS : ( PRO BET - Lay the Fav ) - WIN
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RACE 2
WIN - BLUE WALTZ -
EW - ALBASHARAH - 1st @ 6.60
LONG - LA BANDERILLA -

SUMMARY : Todays 2nd race is for 3 yrs plus and for the Fillies only over 1m...which seems fine until you notice there are 19 feckin runners....oh deary me.....this is insanely hard to predict, calculate or reason with...and with not really knowing quite how the ground will go or if the draw will have as big effect as usual there is a lot of guesswork here.
As the 4 year olds have dominated in recent years im going to use that stat to help we wheedle the field down...and this now turns into a 7 runner race...much more manageable ;-) , BLUE WALTZ with Hughes riding for Cumani is a standout and this rapidly improving sort could be anything but after hosing up in her Maiden she then went on to hose up again in a decent Hcap both in Softish ground and both over todays distance ...plus plus plus...this has everything going for her, trip , distance , form , Jockey....ground...crikey ..what more do you want ??!!...
Albasharah and La Banderilla will be the two i pick for cover as both of these look like they have been late season primed for this and both will be fresh and La Banderilla has shown she runs well off a break.

RESULT / MOANS : 
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RACE 3
WIN - EPSOM HILL -
EW - CONNECTICUT -
LONG - BATTERSEA -

SUMMARY : The Betfred Stakes now a race over 1m4f for the 3 yr olds and older and with 24 runners this is another that will be staggeringly difficult.
Straight away im just gonna say for me its Connecticut , Battersea , Epsom Hill and Top Tug and in no specific order as i have all four closely rated and i think these should run decent races and hopefully one will keep my PP alive...the pros think otherwise " This looks a cracking contest with Richard Fahey sending a quartet down from North Yorkshire. Ventura Quest may be the best of them but others are preferred. Three run in the Godolphin blue with the unexposed Flag War preferred to Miner's Lamp and Famous Kid. Battersea is still improving and looks a better bet than Connecticut, who has gone up another 5lb since finishing only third in the Melrose at York when behind Adventure Seeker. Stetchworth gets 22lb from stablemate Fire Fighting and could go well upped in distance while Saab Almanal ran a fine race behind Rhombus at Newbury. REWAAYA was given plenty of time to mature after opening her account at Leicester in May. She returned with an effortless victory over this course and distance three weeks ago and, though up a further 9lb, Frankie can steer her to a hat-trick in this as she could be capable of earning some black type before the end of the campaign. "....

RESULT / MOANS : All Unplaced as a few shocks win n place...Placepot burned but cash rich after the first two..so not chasing today , just gonna sit back n enjoy ;)
                                                                    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 4
WIN - BIG EASY - 1st @ 12.50
EW - MOIDORE -
LONG - COMMUNICATOR / NOBLE SILK -

SUMMARY : Does it get any Easier ??..does it fuck...now we have the 34 runner CESAREWITCH a race over 2m2f with low drawn runners given an advantage....with the last three winners returning at 25/1 , 66/1 and last year again at 66/1 this is not a race for favs....so im laying Quick Jack ( Pro Bet ) and gonna go with Noble Silk , Communicator , Big Easy and Moidore without any level of confidence whatsoever...its a cross your fingers n hope time for the PP...heres what the pros say....
 " See And Be Seen beat Big Easy and a number of these in the Cesarewitch Trial here three weeks ago. He only needs one to drop out to get a run but connections of the second will fancy their chances of revenge. Likely favourite Quick Jack looks poor value now considering he's no certainty to confirm Galway running with Swynmor and Digeanta on today's revised terms while Ray Ward usually finds at least one too good. Nearly Caught is unexposed but has been hard to train while Moidore was only 10th last year, behind runner-up Waterclock and Jonny Delta. Lady Kashaan could sneak into the frame at decent odds and Suegioo won the Chester Cup in May but we'll concentrate on the in-form Teak and RHOMBUS. Both have a 4lb penalty to carry but the former is tough and versatile and stays forever. However, we just prefer Ismail Mohammed's fast-improving four-year-old who is already a course winner and will again be partnered by crack apprentice Cam Hardie, still excellent value for his 3lb claim. "...

RESULT / MOANS : 
                                                                    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 5
WIN - BELLA NOUF -
EW - JASMINE BLUE -
LONG - COLOURADA -

SUMMARY : And the day progresses with no let up in pain as we have a nice 17 runner maiden for 2 yr olds....crikey o Reilly...Bill Knights Colourada must go into the PP as the form choice however looking at some of these i would be surprised if it was the winner.
JASMINE BLUE interests me greatly as a filly from Galileo for Fitri Hay , Bella Nouf with a strange Haggas/Hughes combo and thats my three....not much one can really say...

RESULT / MOANS : No run for me here..a bit flat..should win the last tho lol...;/
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RACE 6
WIN - PARSLEY - 1st @ 1.09
EW -
LONG -

SUMMARY : And the placepot is rounded off with a farcical 2 runner match...so both go in... although it would be a monster shock if  PARSLEY was to lose this as its miles clear on all known form and ratings and really should have too much and for me that rounds up this fine day....Good Luck.

RESULT / MOANS : Not surprising tho is it haha..a good day overall and im very happy with 4 Winners from 6 Races and some nice prices...
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