Thursday, 23 October 2014

WAWAW...

Morning All ,
                   Well the end is nigh well for the flat season at least as we rapidly draw a close on what has been a season full of anti climaxes but we have enough in the NH locker to keep us sufficiently occupied and interested and this coupled with the AW winter season is enough to keep us rolling and ticking over nicely , this post has been generated for Simon " WAWAW " Cooper who has a few days off work and is off on the lash n going to Donny races so fingers crossed i can give him some assistance in nailing a few winners and making the day even more fun.....so lets go....

DONCASTER

RACE 1 : A 2 yr old Nursery isnt a great way to start as these are betting minefields where quite often either the fav wins or the rank outsider ( or one off )  with all the concessions available these are much like a Hcap for 2 yr olds and you will often see horses with little or no form suddenly running well...Fortunately the ground is only a wee bit soft and mostly good to soft so i will produce the card on the basis that the ground is good , so looking back 3 of the last 4 running's of this have been won by relatively fancied sorts however if you look thru the last 6 then we see 3 winners at 11/1 , 16/1 and 33/1 so that shows how tough it can be.
Last Years winner won and raced to a rating of 88 ( now rated 110 ) and Roaldhino won with a rating of 86 so that gives you an idea of the performance required to win ( fair imo ) and with all the facts at hand i think the three to focus on will be BOLD APPEAL , Lockstock Hall and Best Example as these all have the form to show up well , will like the trip and have conditions to suit.

WIN - BEST EXAMPLE - 
EW - LOCKSTOCK HALL - 

LONG - BOLD APPEAL - 
                                   
Comments : Best bet is probably an EW on Bold Appeal but with all races check the prices for a dutch
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RACE 2 : Now we have a rather tough looking Maiden for the Fillies and with so many looking very well bred this is a bettors minefield however we do have a few with experience and/or form and i think it will be prudent to stick with these.
The Winner for me does look to be the Daughter of Sea The Stars YARROW after this started slowly fto and raced greenly being pushed along at hal way but did then respond and run on well to finish inside 2L of the winner when coming 2nd over 1m on the polytrack and this form and experience could just swing it her way however she wont have it all her own way as Star of Seville also looks a nice runner from the Gosden yard and this has a similar profile and finally we have one that will need to show improvement but i think thats a given and thats Mythical Moment from the Haggas yard a lovely looking filly by Authorized that could and should run a much better race this time.

WIN - YARROW  - 
EW - STAR OF SEVILLE - 1st @ 4.80

LONG - MYTHICAL MOMENT  - 
                                   
Comments : Best bet is the Dutch on Yarrow and Star of Seville as its my belief that the two of these will be very hard to beat.
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RACE 3 : And its another Maiden...and again for the fillies....jeez tough for the punters...The form on offer from those that have run is much weaker here with only FILAMENT the standout beaten on 3/4L fto and with natural progression this is the one to beat.
We do have some very nice looking unraced sorts on show with some royally bred with Namhroodrah , Beautiful Romance and Striding Out all looking to get a win on the books at the first attempt and my breeding book has little to separate these three so its a case of pick n hope.

WIN - FIGMENT  - 3rd @ 7/4
EW - BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE - 1st @ 4.41

LONG - NAMHROODAH - NR
                                   
Comments : Best bet is possibly an EW on Filament but its a tough one to call in this Div as im also quite keen on Beautiful Romance.
                                                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 4 : And its yet another Maiden....for the boys this time...Udododontyou peaks my interest as its by Lope de Vega and will probably go off  at an insane price but could run well however that wud be a small stakes fun punt as there appear to be plenty in this with far better chances and the best of those maybe TRUE RESPECT by Shamardal who i think could be a bit special and quite often the boys in blue keep some of their better prospects until the back end and this could be either smart or backwards...i also like Penag Paparaja and of course it would be folly to leave out THAHAB a well bred sort owned by Al Shaqab and trained by the master at this game Hannon with the remainder much of a muchness.

WIN - TRUE RESPECT - 4th
EW - THAHAB - 3rd @ 3.85

LONG - PENANG PAPARAJA  - 
                                   
Comments : I like th dutch with True Respect and Thahab here as i think these are most likely to run well but its another tough race for punting and i would limit stakes again.

                                                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 5 : Punters nightmare as it doesnt get any easier with this 6f 22 runner hcap , AETNA will come into this with a massive chance having shown some great consistency over the season and this is coupled with some very strong winning and placed form none better than when winning a 20 runner sprint at York on soft ground..if this gets the breaks it should run a huge race , Doc Hay has been in great form as well with winning form over 5 , 6 and 7f on all ground types this will be there at the end and i think Another wise kid could surprise a few with Lee riding this has great place claims.

WIN - AETNA - NR
EW - DOC HAY - NR

LONG - ANOTHER WISE KID - 
                                   
Comments : Tough race and not a great betting heat but Aetna is worth a bet as this is probably the class act and with a clear run will go very close.
                                                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 6 : Next up is a 1m6f race and with 20 runners things dont get any easier...NOVIRAK could supply Freddie T with another winner today as this will unlike most really enjoy the trip the ground and arrives in form and will be a big player in this , others to note are Almagest and Norway Cross both of whom arrive in form and from stables that know how to ready a hcap winner.

WIN - NOVIRAK  - 2ND @ 8.20
EW - ALMAGEST - 

LONG - NORWAY CROSS - 
                                   
Comments : Another tough race but Novirak looks a good call here as most dont stay the trip at pace.
                                                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 7 : Finally its taken most of the day but we have a race to get stuck into as we have a good field size of ten and its over a proper distance of 1m2f so lets hope we have a good un....well we dont have a nap yet but i do like CAPE CASTER who easily gets trip and a bit further is in form and looks a good bet here today , Raven Ridge and Top o The Glas should be good enough to get involved

WIN - CAPE CASTER - 2nd @ 6.40
EW - RAVEN RIDGE - 

LONG - TOP O THE GLAS - 4th
                                   
Comments : Cape Caster looks a strong EW bet here and will good for the doubles or trebles.
                                                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

FINALE : The getting out stakes and after what can be only described as a rough day gets no easier as its not only a 20 runner hcap but its for the ams as well so its just a crazy finish , anything Serena rides warrants respect as she is a very capable jockey and does quite well in these but Stephen Walker is also very good in these and i think he could be the answer on a horse that is in good form and consistent , a straightforward ride and will take the beating although its only won once is relatively lightly raced with just the 10 outings and its only been beaten by small amounts in tight finishes of late so i think this should go well.

WIN - ARYIZAD - 3rd @ 5.60
EW - HUSSAR BALLAD - 

LONG - MIXED MESSAGE - 
                                   
Comments : Tough day ...very tough and i would have Aryizad in some mixed EW doubles to have interest or a win to get me out of trouble...good luck.
                                                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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