Well yesterday went pretty much like clockwork...Both EW Naps getting placed ( nice double ) , the Win NAP Won at 2.54 , the Pro Bet LAY got well beat and the PPL Bet was an easy profit so all in all a full house of profitable results ...thats what makes a good day and i managed to sneak 9 holes in whilst getting a new boiler fitted and my central heating upgraded ;-)....so Champions Day is upon us and that pretty much signals the end of the flat season proper...The NH season is now starting to swing into full action with Cheltenham on the go and that makes for a great Saturday of racing , we have Ascot champions day with cruel soft ground which has depleted some fields but still enough quality to get excited and we also have another crack at Chelts as they hold day 2 of their opening extravaganza and i dont really know why but im really kinda looking forward to the NH game this year as i feel let down by the flat as i expected so much yet i feel it delivered so little...Kingman was amazing and was a true world class beast , Australia would have been great with a better jockey riding ( sorry JoB fans but Ryan Moore would have made a difference ) and Taghrooda a wonder filly along with the enigmatic Treve,,,she did fuck all all year turns up at the Arc and turns that into a procession...hmm i was a bit wtf was that with it.......Sole Power remains the sprint king but this will be his last year as we have some smart older horses coming thru and the balance of power plus age will see the swing, none the less i yearn to see some of the NH game give me the thrills i feel i have lacked over the last few months....come on Hendo sort your team out and stop giving me and Young Nicky such shit info....;-/
Right so lets cast our beady eyes over firstly Ascot then Cheltenham...
ASCOT
Race : 1 , We start off the day with the Long Distance Cup a race over 2m and can someone explain to me how the fuck LEADING LIGHT is 3.80....grab this NOW!!....what a fucking gift from the bookmaking gods , loves the soft ground , stays all day and is one of Europes outstanding stayers...i would honestly have made it clear 6/4F so getting this price gives me shivers its just awesome!!...you are talking about the winner of a Gold Cup , the Vintage Stakes and the St Leger...this is a seriously class horse and although there are some smart staying types in this like Estimate, Biographer and Forgotten Rules this Leading Light will only truly shine over 2m + anything less and its a gamble but we back to the ground..its gonna be testing and most wont like it but LL loves it...this is a cracking bet ( at the odds ) and i urge you all to have a go ( not a Nap on my form cast but a cracking value bet ) .
RESULT : Unplaced ( Bumped, hampered, impeded it had everything thrown at it in the last third...)
Race 2 : , Now we have the Champion Sprint which has been some what affected due to some early stage withdrawals but its still a great race none the less and the ground will prove pivotal and the two i like here are MAAREK who at 8.40 represents some cracking value as he has shown not a lot of late but on ground he has not liked and now back on this slush i expect to see Maarek show his true form on the ground he has been crying out for and i have this alongside GORDON LORD BYRON who isnt the smartest sprinter but does the 7f trip really well and i feel that stamina at speed edge will see him last home better than most and he could run from the pack and take plenty out and the 7.20 is a fair if not outstanding price but this for me makes for a great looking dutch , of the others i feel Eton Forever has a good EW shout at 16/1 or higher who is another soft ground racer with the current and back form to get involved.
RESULT : 1st @ 7.28 ( Maarek was 4th @ 10.28 )
Race 3 : , The Fillies n Mares is next and over 1m4f this looks a tough race to get a design on and Seal of Approval who is vying for favoritism will have been laid out for this after winning it last year but has run so flat i think it can be justifiably over looked.
I like Hadaatha but i feel the price is all wrong so even at 7.20 im not interested , Silk Sari has been running well but has beaten nothing of note and mostly have been flawed but as i look thru the field i see not a great deal or anything that stands out clearly and its the 6.60 Fav and that price is just on the right side of good but its not a good race for favs..stats shmats...ok i have read and re-read all form available and gone thru them all several times and the only bet i can see is the one on SILK SARI ( EW ) ..i would say not outstanding but would make a great filler for an EW acca or similar.
RESULT : 2nd @ 6.73
Race 4 : , Now we have potentially the days big race , the QEII and over 1m this trip for all age has been won by some super stars in previous years inc the likes of the mighty Frankel , Excelebration , Mark of Esteem , Rip Van Winkle and Dubai Millemium to name a few so you see it takes a star to win this.
This year is a bit odd as we have no stand out miler ( in attendance or still racing to be relevant ) Kingman would have won if taken part but thats not to be so on the basis of all known form and incorporating the ground conditions and race conditions i think the bet here is a EW on CHARM SPIRIT who only tasted defeat when beaten by Night of Thunder in the 2000 Guineas but has improved by leaps n bounds since where as NoT has stagnated and i think the Frenchie will take a world of beating in this , Night of Thunder himself plus Intergral are the only other two with any real class and they will again make a race of it....these three i feel will be the ones fighting out the finish.
RESULT : 1st @ 7.86
Race 5 : , And still the magic rolls on with the days next mahoosive race...the Qipco Champion Stakes won recently by Farhh and Frankel and previously by New Approach and Bosra Sham ...wow what a roll call and although im not sure we will see something of their caliber im sure the winner we have to be top drawer.
We can keep the Frankel line going by cheering home its full brother NOBLE MISSION and on soft ground over its best trip ( this 1m2f ) i think we have every chance of doing so and at 7.40 ( current price ) or better this is an outstanding EW bet ( EW NAP ) , This has recently Won the Tattersalls Gold Cup on soft ground over 10f , the Huxby Stakes on soft over 10f , The Gordon Richard Stakes over 10f on Soft with all its inferior or disappointing runs coming over further this has ticks in all the boxes and a touch of class and will run a huge race.
CDA still has class but is very easy to oppose and at 2.72 is also a PRO BET LAY , Al Kazeem looks a spent force , Ruler of the World has ability but rarely puts a shift in , Pethers Moon isn't really a group 1 horse , Free Eagle looks a top class sort and cannot be ignored and if you believe the hype then this race is already a done deal.....time will tell...
So we have a conflict a race in which we have both an EW Nap and a Pro Bet LAY...which bet is the better bet and which offers the greater RR Ratio ??...well in truth at the current odds there is little in it as the Fap on NM is a similar RRR as the Lay on CDA ???.....im gonna say the best bet in this race is the FAP on Noble Mission....only just but it gets the call.
RESULT : Noble Mission 1st @ 10.43
Race 6 : , and to round the card off we have a bonkers 28 runner 1m Hcap...get yer pins out boys n girls....The three i like in this for the PP and for dutching are Chatez , Buckstay and VELOX.
RESULT : all unplaced....
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
So that has sorted out Champions day do we have any ammo or thoughts indeed on Cheltenham ??....
CHELTENHAM
Race 1 : Very tight race to open the card up and a race full of ex pointers ( some prolific ) and a cagey play is required as the book has this has a two runner race , I think in fairness the top two in the market are gonna prove tough to beat but from a betting perspective ( ie : if i was at the track or wanting a fun run for my money ) then i think an EW on Bally Beaufort is the play its been backed from 15/1 into 8/1 already for chump change and its current price offers nothing but if i could get 16/1 or better before the race id have a go if not then Byron Blue might be worth a look at 25/1 or better but these are speculative punts where your hoping for certain scenarios to play out rather than just relying on your horse to step up as IN THE ROUGH looks the likeliest winner on paper and isnt a bad bet at 2.92.
RESULT : In The Rough 1st @ 3.60
Race 2 : Very nice looking Class 2 Hcap chase with some very decent sorts in the line up , ERICHT @ 8/1 looks a decent EW bet in this having never run unplaced when coming off a break of 60 days or more and is a class animal on his day and with the Hendo yard in tip top shape i see no reason why this shouldnt run a decent race , ive not had a word for it as yet but i had " words " regarding the state of the yard last week and everything is in good order , Champion Court is a lovely type but may have too much weight today , Claret Cloak is almost there , Johns Spirit would have been primed for a repeat victory and will surely give his all and Bennys Mist n Sew on Target are both capable making this look quite a hot renewal...exciting stuff indeed.
RESULT : Ericht 3rd @ 9.80
Race 3 : This has PPL Written all over it , will check the prices again tmrw but i think its another cracker.
RESULT : NO BET
Race 4 : Another decent looking Hcap Chase and another tight competitive race in which many come into the reckoning , i have two i like here for completely different reasons , firstly ALFIE SPINNER who is on a really good mark now and will be winning soon as the handicapper keeps knocking a few pound off here n there and at 30/1 is well worth some EW interest and secondly we have LE BEC who is imo the real class act here and would have gone close to winning the RSA at the festival had he not fallen 4 out when up with the leaders and looking good and at 6.6 is a very strong EW bet.
RESULT : Alfie Spinner 3rd @ 17.24 ( Le Bec was a Non Runner)
Race 5 : A patchy work a day Hcap hurdle up next but its ANDY KELLY that has got me in a lather as my spies in the ECL camp tell me this will go very close to winning with a clear round and the 7/1 isnt a bad price at all , however i have an even stronger report for ACT ALONE and at 7.2 offers similar value so im gonna not look anywhere else and just lump the dutch on these...i think its a cracking bet.
RESULT :
Race 6 : PPL Race...Nuff said ;-)...
RESULT : No Bet
Race 7 : Traditional end to a NH card the NHF race and i have a good word for HOW ABOUT IT here , former PTP Winner has been doing good work at home and has been impressing and they think it should go close to winning but this is a hot looking race so confidence is tempered...its more of a tester than anything else.
RESULT : Unplaced but nothing could have lived with the 11/4f and winner as it demolished these...
Today looks another solid cracking days racing with so much on offer my best bets are
1. Leading Light - EW - £500 Loss
2. Maarek / GLB & Andy Kelly/ Act Alone in a dutch double - £500 Loss
3. Le Bec / Ericht / In the Rough/ Leading Light in EW Doubles and 4 fold. - £26.54 Profit
4. Both PPL Bets - No Bets
5.FAP on Noble Mission. - £1000+ Profit
Good Luck and have a great Day.
No comments:
Post a Comment