Friday, 17 October 2014

Happy Friday ;)

Morning Folks,
            Well this week has seen the usual October onslaught of rain n pain and the ground on some courses has been almost unraceable so its been slim pickings although i have hit a few nice PPL bets this week to keep me ticking over and a few of my members on our Racing channel on Facebook have been on fire with the likes of Paul " Stevo " Stephenson , Seamus Furlong and the enigma that is Eric Winner all kicking in some winners and the odd winning double making our racing family versatile , fun and on occasions very profitable.... ( keep it up guys , great work ) what makes today a Happy Friday ?? , well we have two meetings of choice , Firstly we have the season opener from the mighty Cheltenham and we always get some nice sorts running here with plenty of betting opportunities as the NH cranks it up and secondly we have a cracking looking card at Newmarket ( HQ ) as they start their Champions Weekend and the whole card looks nice but it is almost tragic that the ground has cut up soft with it potentially racing like its heavy and after a days racing im thinking it could be pretty poor tmrw...see how we get on today.

So lets start the day off by taking a look at Cheltenham , ...

Race 1 : This looks ultra tough and one simply cant get involved here as they all look decent prospects but FRAMPTON does look like it has the ability to be " extra " special after winning fto beating the useful Milord and never off the bridle and although this is a far tougher test this could be the answer but as i stated this is only speculative and is a no bet race for me.RESULT : 4th  and well beaten , no complaints ) 

Race 2: This would appear a far easier race to assess as COURT MINSTREL looks a cut above these already , this won a Scottish Champion Hurdle so is not without speed and stamina and it would seem that he is also a tidy jumper and is certainly a horse on the up , not fully extended and we dont know just how good but i will be surprised if hes not upto giving these a good tonking ( NAP ) . RESULT : 1st ( Won Easy )  @ 2.56

Race 3 : Cracking opening race to the Pertemps series and this 17 runner charge will be a high quality affair and its full of promising sorts.
Henryville , the 3 JP Runners and Syabrite all have it in them to win while San Telm and Samingarry could surprise however im going to offer DESTROYER DEPLOYED one last chance to shine after an indifferent spell chasing this classy sort ( on his day ) is back hurdling and off a very fair mark and a nothing weight ( after Johns extra allowance has come off ) give this every chance and if in the mood could strike at a very nice price  ( currently 30/1 ) and i think it has to be worth some EW consideration ~( will be getting some from me ) its not a great bet in the sense that if you compare its actual chance of winning ( true price ) against its implied chance of winning ( the price you get from the bookmaker ) as i would have had it in around the 40-50/1 mark in truth as its overall form profile compared to some of these is piss poor does have a touch of class and has plenty enough ability to strike if in the mood and with all conditions in favour i think its worth a tickle or two. RESULT : Unplaced ( Blundered when going well and not recover, jury is still out , Syabrite Wins  @ 10/1 ) 

Race 4 : This is a tricky little 5 runner race and in truth a case of sorts can be made for all so with that and the current market forces allowing im simply going to smash this as a PPL race as its a 10/10 and its simply too good to miss. RESULT : BoooM as the Fav is Unplaced @ 1.95 ( 1.41 ) 

Race 5 : COMMISSIONED...yes i know its a 4/9 shot but i see little point in going against it  , i wouldnt back it as i see this race a watching brief but i would be mighty shocked if it didnt win so it becomes a race for me to leave alone ...although....if it was backed in more to say 1.36 - 1.42 then i think there is enough in this race to al least make a race of it and i think you can go for a decent trade off at 1.82 - 2.16 with little loss liability should it not come off. RESULT : 1st @ 4/9F ( Won Easy )

Race 6 : Its an Amateur event and i just follow Steven Clements in these

Race 7 : And to finish we have a really good looking conditional jockeys race with some very high profile names in attendance , Now there is some rather interesting facts to take with this, firstly....Nico ( De Boinville ) is a family friend and a bloody good rider and horseman and he has had some cracking wins for his gaffer who is of course the erstwhile Nicky Henderson ( Hendo ) and to see him " jocked off " and riding Drumlang is disappointing but Peter Carberry is another friend of the family but his last 14 rides have been fruitless , his win rate is low and his overall profile leaves a bit to find but he is friends with the owner Buckley ( Bucky ) so without knowing the full facts i can only guess as to how this riding arrangement come about but Hammersley Lake would appear to have a leading chance if the rider can produce a professional sit.

Mountain King is a lovely looking sort and will make them all go and has arguably the best conditional on board in the shape of  M ( Pron~ My Heel )  Nolan and this distance winner has to go close with a clear round.

Finally we have my selection , the horse carrying my money and that is VIBRATO VALTAT who was 3rd in the Swinton on his last outing having beaten fair n square the 4/9f  Sign of Victory from the Hendo yard previously and for me this is the class act and a simple reproduction of that run sees him place or win and at 6/1 is my EW NAP . - RESULT : 3rd @ 4.10 ( Ran well and hit 1.36 on the run to the line )

and here endeth the Cheltenham day....hope its helped in some small way , now we move onto Newmarket....

Race 1 :  A 15 runner Nursery is tough but in the soft its almost suicidal betting so stakes are at the min if at all so it is with great trepidation that i will speculatively nominate FIDELMA MOON as a sporting EW , will love the trip and ground and won well enough lto to suggest she is upto this and being the 40/1 rank outsider you can have a little EW bet for fun. RESULT : UNPLACED ( Ran ok until weakening away over 2f out, not good enough winner was a 16/1 Burke runner )

Race 2 : Next up its the Cornwallis Stakes for 2 yr olds and this is usually a decent race and this a good un but i am rather keen on STRATH BURN who is imo top rated and has easily the best form on offer, is lightly raced and looks the class act plus his run behind Kool Kompany is easily good enough to get involved...++ the ground was softer than this when he run in France so i see that being no problem if anything its an advantage so all said n done i think this is a cracking wee bet and at 6/1 is my EW NAP . RESULT : 2nd @ 6.26 ( Ran a solid race, no complaints )

Race 3 : Another cracker now and this time its the Middle Park and we have a Red Hot fav in the shape of Ivawood and in all honesty after witnessing how it destroyed the fields in its last two races when making all i fail to see what else can win...Kool Kompany is a big price @ 12 and this could easily be a 1-2 for the Hannon Team and the FC is not a bad bet but i just cant get away from IVAWOOD being the winner here even at 1.74....RESULT : 2nd @ 1/2F ( Beaten a Nose , ran well enough with more to come, Godolphin winner may bring a smile to their yard for next season )

Race 4 : Now we have the Fillies Mile ( again for 2 yr olds ) and i think it will take a very smart performance to see LUCIDA beaten and i think a double with Ivawood is a decent bet as she won on Yielding ground on her debut. RESULT : Well Beaten ( Unplaced )  by the AoB runner ( 7/1 ) @ 6/5F

Race 5 : And the big races dont stop yet as we now move onto the Dewhurst which is one of the biggest trials races of the year for 2 yr olds and with previous winners like Dawn Approach , Parish Hall and War Command this usually throws up something smart and although the ground has turned a few away i still feel it will be a good un that wins and i am thinking that the Pro Bet here is to LAY the Fav which is currently 2.34 as i am struggling to find a winner although i do quite like the look of Smugglers Cove ( 3rd @ 7/2 ) . RESULT : FAV was UNPLACED @ 2.50

Race 6 : Now we have a Hcap thats all dressed up as a Group 3 over 7f and its as wide open a race as you'll find but i think THAWAANY who loves the soft ground is a nice prospect with an outstanding chance here and at 3.80 looks a good bet to get out of jail with , its a good day with some great action , enjoy and have fun...ttfn x. RESULT : NON - RUNNER



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