Sunday, 15 November 2015

Its Been a While...

Morning guys n gals,
                                  Its been a while since i last posted anything let alone a race card but its the final day of the excellent season defining Open Meeting at Cheltenham and we have seen some sterling results already.
The weather has turned over the last week and the ground is very soft now and i think its highly unlikely that we will see Sprinter Sacre running however this is not an issue as I am now taking over the posting and thoughts of this page.
" i " you may ask ?..well this is usually the domain for my Alter ego " Sniper " but he is far too busy data collecting and form watching to worry about the smaller stuff so i will be giving the cards my own spin.
Who is I you may ask, who is the new writer and informer of the equine knowledge people crave so badly, well in truth the I isnt a new persona but more of an older hand that ha only really come out to play more n more over the last few years it is in fact the Mighty , the Imperious LONGBOW.

Yes i was toying with the idea of giving Longbow his own page and that may still happen but for now he will guest write all articles on here as well as the odd chip over at Punters Pal.

Well i dont like Favourites as much as Sniper and always look for improvers or dark horses and if its a juicy price then all the better, i fly in the face of conformation and common sense and live life on the edge...well mostly ;).

Before i start todays card i would like to pass on my condolences to all my French friends and colleagues and anyone else involved in the tragic events that have recently occurred in Paris.

Lets take a look at the Cheltenham card then...but in what format? well i will go through it in a brief style for today but if you prefer a better or different style then leave me a message.

RACE 1:
This race is truth lay between MAPUTO and ALTIOR
Altior i know is loved by the yard and they rank it higher on ability than Peace n Co which tells its own story , will love the ground and is a true gutsy proper racer where as Maputo may not like the ground but is a very classy sort but has beaten little to date and has a bit to prove.

Simon Squirrel is a talking horse and has to find at least 20lb however ....this may be easily found as this is a huge improver and could easily get involved.
The market itself suggests that this is an equal field and with little to choose between them i see nothing gained in going for the favoured side.

Yes Altior is the likeliest winner , Yes Maputo has some strong lower grade form to offer however at the prices in testing conditions where some finishes will become attritional i think taking a view away is a better bet.
DRUMLEE SUNSET has a bit to find but Hobbs and Johnson are red hot pokers currently and this will have come on a ton from its debut over CD and i think a more spirited performance is assured.

Its my opinion that the BEST BET in this is a very large PPL ( ask if you dont understand ) as both are currently sub 1.80 so this is imo a very decent wager.

FTW...well i am going to say have a dutch on Drumlee Secret and Simon Squirrel as it pays more for the dutch than backing either of th front two on their own.

RESULT : ALTIOR Wins @ 2/1

**My bet was sold off at a break even price as soon as Drumlee jinked and unseated Dicky just 100 yards after the off so no damage done there.

Sniper did quite well tho as i know he has that in a big EW Trixie today and had a big single on it...Maybe i should start following the money men....;P...nah i dont fucking think so..ive plenty of bullets left.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I Have a £500 PPL bet on this.

RACE 2:
There is only one bet for me here and its a lay at the current 1.76 or similar on GARDE LE VICTIORE , yes it won the Greatwood , yes its a massive improver and looks good with fancy figures but the truth here is it was only a couple of pound superior to Fox Norton over hurdles and GLV has limited Chase experience where FN has a ton and is unbeaten and we have two competitive looking runners from the Nicholls yard.
At the current odds this is a fantastic LAY.

RESULT :Garde Le Victoire Wins @ 1.70 ( hit 4.6 in running ) , never looked like winning, was at full speed from 4 out and never looked comfortable...totally unconvincing.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Have laid this for £500
RACE 3:
Sprinter Sacre 3 years ago would have carried the entire field home on his back , rated 188 and was a freak of nature however after an injury or two and some very poor comeback races one would have to be mighty optimistic ti think he can get back to where he was.Think Gazza,Micheal Owen,Mike Tyson,Denman or even the drug fueled Lance Armstrong the one thing that all theses sports stars and they were greats had in common was thus...THEY NEVER come back the same after a serious injury, yes they could all do a bit and occasionally roll back the years but they were never of the stature they once lofted from and its from that perspective that makes me think that SS will never again be the same and the likes of SIMPLY NED maybe too good but i wouldnt dismiss Somersby either who goes well fresh and may a bit left but again the market tells its own story...its a wide open affair with no real outsiders either of the two supposed rags capable of running a big race although for profit and fun you can at the odds dutch Mr Mole with the two rags in a FAP dutch that does jold a lot of interest and for me is the best " fun bet "  with a Win Dutch concerning Mr Mole and Simply Ned the best pro punt in an engaging and interesting race the offers a lot.

RESULT: I have never felt so good to be proven wrong as SPRINTER SACRE simply routed them @ 3.25...he demolished them by 15l running most of the race to around 180 which means he is definitely back and that leaves me £650 down for the day.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I have done a £200/£100/£100 Fap Dutch on the bottom three in the market.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE4 :
The Greatwood Hurdle now and i have a proper Longbow bet in this in the shape of DAYS OF HEAVEN at around 23/1 this looks an outstanding EW bet with a jockey whom i like v much riding a horse that smashed a 141 rated rival ( has made a winning start over fences with all form franked ) by an amazing 34 lengths and had beaten the group rated Vago Collenges in the Dovecote.
This has any amount of improvement to come and is back over its ideal trip and could easily be a proper festival runner and will be winning races in between so at the odds and given the fact he has little to find to match the best on offer this for me is a no brainer.

RESULT:Ran a great race until it emptied off the turn 2 out...Never mind..another £300 n the £300 from the double down...so thats a nice £1200 down i am today...proving to be an expensive Sunday...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I have £150 EW @ BFSP.
RACE 5 :
SCOOP THE POT comes into this with a huge reputation and profile and also comes into this owing a few people after a huge flop lto when he simply ran ragged and didnt jump.
But this did show a lot of class during a before that debacle but at around 8.0 is short enough however i also like Fingerontheswitch and Towering and the three of them are in the top four in the betting which is a bit of a c u next tuesday in truth because in a 24 runner field field i have found myself magnetically drawn towards these three and find them very hard to get away from so on this occasion i will bite my own bullet and just lump the dutch.

RESULT:Nothing here either......£1300 down..
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~£50 Win Each


***Well its been a shit ol day for the Longbow so im gonna get it all in on a Win Dutch with Coole Charmer and Chap...big balls time.....


RACE 6:
This is a nice looking finale with some very well thought of sorts and a host of future winners but i think all things considered that COOLE CHARMER from the Hendo yard and ridden by the excellent Fehily will take some beating and its lto has been massively franked as the 2nd that day has since had 3 Hurdle runs winning the last two of them and that franking is worth an awful lot and at a very engaging 8.0 i am going to have a good go at this.

RESULT:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~£150 EW ( & £150 EW Double with Days of Heaven )

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

P n L :


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