DERBY DAY CARD

Today has been somewhat overshadowed with the controversial injuction stopping Fallon from riding recital in the Derby today, this does seem very petty but it does show that some contracts do hold some water.

Kieron you agreed to ride, you should have rode.....

Moving on , todays cards look very good and as expected the highlighted card for today is the Epsom Derby Card.
We had a very good year last year nailing the winner from every british classic plus winners from france ( arc ) and america , this year we have started of very well but then this game is easy when there are Frankels about.
Todays Derby has a very open look about it, the one horse that wont be winning is Carlton House, for reasons explained later..right lets crack on....

Epsom Downs 13:40 


A case can be  made for all of these bar SERGEANT ABLETT ,this even at 11.5 has to be a MAX LAY, this horse simply will never be good enough to trouble these , tbh you could also risk a bit on a place lay.
This is a rock solid start to the day, fill your fucking boots!!!.
On the back side ( as i know many of you like to back only and have no interest or understanding of laying ) i will be going for this dutch....

As we have already established Sergeant Ablett has no chance of winning so MAX LAY that to cover  all out going bets and dutch those three for win as that is where i see the winner coming from , if ya dont wanna dutch then the best stand alone bet i can say is MAX BET BOOGIE SHOES in the PLACE market @ 1.55 , this is surely free money?...go on have a go ;-)

RESULT = 1st Charles Camoin ( by a nose!! ) , 2nd Trojan Nights and 3rd BOOGIE NIGHTS.

Summary:Boogie committed too soon and was done in a 3 way photo on the line well clear of the rest , the dutch would have broke even however Trojan nights and Boogie Shoes hit 1.6 and 1.3 in running with tanfeeth hitting 2.5 so if you was watching and trading you should really have made some profit from that.

Obv if you just backed Boogie in the place market, that was never in doubt.

Epsom Downs 14:10

A tight little 2yr old race next up with 4 distance winners and all looking rock  solid...tough stuff.

Now we have what i would term as an anomaly here , now i will get boo'd here i know, people will say your mad before or a fucking genius after...but hey ho , MISS MUGA , currently is 140/1 on betfair and 50/1 will shops ( fuck that , get the 140 / 15.5 w/p on betfair ) run every part of its last two races quicker than the other three winners , is upto an incred 3 secs quicker than them at end on same ground/trip conditions and incred CASPAR NETSCHER which was beaten last time over 6f was beaten by a horse running a 1m 17secs race..Muga has run 1m12 and 1m13secs last twice!!! CN is 3/1 fuck me this a No brainer!!,,,,MAX LAY CASPAR NETCHER and use that money to BACK MISS MUGA win and place say 20/80% at 140/1 and 15.5....( maybe lay an extra 10% so gteed a return )......

RESULT = Fullbright 1st , Miss Muga was unplaced as was Caspar Necther

Summary: Hmm..Miss Muga broke and ran like a green as grass dog , was paddling at sea from the off and it ran nowhere near its own form, very poor ride from an odd horse , fortunately i filled my boots laying Caspar so i made a healthy profit.

Epsom Downs 14:40

A nice renewal for the Diomed and i will not desert PREMIER LOCO here , now i have to be honest as i am not entirely convinced  that this animal likes to put it all in , it def has ability but doesnt like to share it...so on that basis and the fact it owes me nothing i think 1.38 a place is FREE MONEY and i am advising a MAX PLACE BET.

There is No lay in this race.

RESULT = UNPLACED, just not quick enough and i cant see this winning any type of graded race.

Summary:Losing race, Loco ran no sort of race at all.

Epsom Downs 15:15 

A fantastically tricky sprint......oh my days...i will be dutching three here , MASAMAH , FALASTEEN and PERFECT BLOSSOM , i will also be MAX LAYING FATHOM FIVE to cover all my stakes.

The three chosen are all up there with the best times and sections , all in form , all like epsom , have everything going for them and i expect big runs from all....FATHOM FIVE WILL NOT WIN...end of!!

RESULT = Well not 1 of mine was placed however neither was fathom five.

Summary: 1 length separated the first 8 home , ours were in this mix , but ultimately not here , a very tight race, well won by Captain dunne.

Epsom Downs 16:00 

Investec Derby (Group 1)

£1250000.00 added, 3yo only, 1m 4f 10y, Class 1, £709625.00 penalty

13 runners

A great race and never has there been such an open looking derby.

For me i really like the look of POUR MOI ( ew ) @ 7.4 and 2.46 i simply cannot see this being unplaced and with the mercurial Barzalona aboard will get a perfect ride . if it stays it wins ,...simple as that...

MAX LAYING CARLTON HOUSE.

RESULT = POUR MOI = 1ST ( GET IN!! )...Carlton House was 3rd...

Summary:KER CHING!!

Epsom Downs 16:50 

A tough 1m4f hcap where almost 2/3's of the field can be argued a case for....sigh , gotta love these , 

Amanda Perrett has won this twice in the past five years and LIFE AND SOUL looks as though he's been primed for number three. A winner at Ascot from just 2lb lower in September, he made a pleasing comeback when attracting support at Newmarket and that will have done him the world of good. 6.8 and 2.56 this a rock solid bet and you  are gteed a great run for your money.COIN OF THE REALM is a MAX LAY.

RESULT = Life and soul was beaten 1/2l , 1/2l and a Head into 4th Grrrrr 1 more runner and top 4 would have been paid!!..we was unlucky there...However, on the upside COIN OF THE REALM was unplaced so no harm done ;-)

Summary:^^^^

Epsom Downs 17:25 

Getting out stakes and tbh ..its a mare and quite simply if you really had to have a bet here i would be going in win / place ( ew ) on CAPE VALE.

If you stuck around for this...what a shame , in the front two for the entire race till last 20yds when it just ran out of steam..paying top 4 this time and predictably enough it came 5th lol......

Have a great day, enjoy ur racing........;-0

Epsom racecard for tmrw

Will not posted up here, but i will send you one via email upon request , will post it up after racing...

Todays Card at EPSOM...

Epsom Downs 13:40


A very nice little small field group 3 ,1m fillies race to start us off with , and the most interesting runner here is the FAV TIMEPIECE.
TBH i can only see the winner being either Timepiece or last years winner Antarra , the rest are imvho just not good enough for this or against these two.
As Antarra hasn't run for 220 days i will lay this @ 2.26 , as its full fitness has to be taken on trust although bf i do expect this to be fully wound up but at just over evens im happy to have a MAX LAY with a 75% trade out @ 2.75
Timepiece is no shoo in....Couldnt confidently back this and wont, if i really had to have a win bet in this race i would back SKYWAY @ 4.8 in the place market  , if either of the front 2 fail to run their race then i expect this to be bang there.


Summary : The trade with the Fav for a favourable green for me is the bet , if it goes wrong liabilities will be low.
Result = Antarra 1st - Hit 4.0 in running, so bets matched and a nice green to start ;-)
Epsom Downs 14:10


A very tricky 1m Hcap...Big field , full of good horses......( pin handy anyone?? ) .
In a race like this i will only be interested by horses that proven distance and too some degree ground form , but distance is king in these and that makes it easy for me as from a field of 18 only 4 have any distance form.


1.Start Right 
Fastest winning time is 1m 38.06 over flat 1m at Goodwood and was fav on his last start at Meydan , has the Fallon drive to help and generally holds its form quite well.


2.Wannabe King
Ran CD in 1m 44.02 s and is slower over all sectionals than Start right is inconsistent albeit good on his day.


3.Kajima
Ran CD in 1m 46.0s but was a lot quicker previously over the flat 1m at Kempton than both the above.Coming from the all conquering Hannon/Hughes team has to be respected , shortlist.


4.Tartan Gigha
Won this race last year in 1m 42.78s so that form on its own would be good enough however in 11 runs since that race ( this race ) it only managed a solitary 2nd and generally dissapointed so there is no way i could back this for a repeat.


Summary: Start Right Just gets a narrow Vote @ 8.2 and is worth a look or two i will be having an EW bet @ 35/65% , the rest of the field could do anything although most on second look feel exposed , the fahey runners could go well but i am happy to go with this an el i will get a decent run for my money,will be placing an in running lay @ 2.8 to cover stake.
Result = Start Right 3rd = Nice Win ( Tardy start and slowly away, one to follow )


Epsom Downs 14:45 


A Small field but packed with talent a very interesting renewal of the Coronation Cup.
Most will have this between St Nick' and MIDDAY and i simply cannot leave Midday , love this horse to bits and will be backing accordingly.
St Nick has so many questions to answer that it just cannot be trusted and @ 2.22 FAV simply has to be layed as much as Midday has to be backed.
Forget the rest.


Summary:Back MIDDAY till your balls fall off.......if it does get beat, take it like a man and move on , but this is a great bet even at 2.36
RESULT = St Nicholas Abbey 1st , However Midday did trade and got beat @ 1.01!!!!  and St Nic traded at 11.0 in running so you really shud  have  had your position covered there!! Nimps Money!.
3/3 profit wise so far today ;-)))
Epsom Downs 15:25


Another tight little Hcap which can go to RESURGE at a very attractive looking 11.0 win and place beckons , Twice a course winner and also a distance winner handles Epsom very well and has been dropped a couple o pounds for an unfortunate race lto at York where the break was missed.
Beaumonts Party @ 4.2 ( 3/1 ) is a MAX LAY..no trade just lay lay lay will not win this with an 11lb rise in weights.
RESULT = RESURGE 1ST @ 9.4 Wiiiiiiiiiii ;-))) , and Beaumonts is unplaced.


Epsom Downs 16:05 
 ********************************THE OAKS************************************
What a great race this looks , but in it we do have a MAX LAY.
The MAX LAY in this race is WONDER OF WONDERS....will not stay as well as a few of these and is the weakest fav of an oaks i can remember in some time, fill your boots!!.


In the WIN market i think Blue Bunting has a great chance today , Zain al Boldan is a lot of peoples choice but i think its overall form is not quite as good as some of the others.
At the prices i think i would go with an EW on BEATRICE AURORE , Gteed to get the trip , likes the ground and has f that entitles her to a place at least.


Summary: I think Blue Bunting will win however i  think 3.5 too short and will go with Beatrice Aurore as an alternative with maybe a little saver on the side and in running lay on mine to get a max green up...
MAX LAY wonder of wonders...I WILL profit from this race!
Result - Wonder of Wonders 2nd - Beatrice ( unplaced ) , i layed WoW all the way down to 1.2 so was very happy had to re - lay in running in order to secure a profit, hard work but we got there...


Epsom Downs 16:50 


A straight forward race here for HOORAY , if he runs to within 6lbs of his best he wins ..EASY...and i am happy to take 1.95 that he will...MAX BET.
RESULT = HOORAY - 1st Nimps ;-))


Epsom Downs 17:25


Finally the last race..and a trappy hcap to round it off with a field full of improver's ,  However i really like the look of FITYAAN , this for me is a MAX EW BET ( 20/80% )
RESULT = FITYAAN - 2ND = KER FUCKING CHING!!...


**May have an amendment here , when the back section went blank and i had a lay matched at 1.01 i had obv presumed that it had came 2nd.....according to sporting life it was unplaced??..either way i make a decent profit, i actuall make more for it being unplaced..will update shortly....


** was in fact 4th an unplaced, but lay matched @ 1.01 so obv very happy with that...


Good Luck , have a great day ;-)

will be..

putting a full card up for Epsom later.....

One LAY for this Evening...

19-10 Ripon

Ay Taye Tate.....Nimps ;-)