Tuesday Thoughts...

Afternoon All ,

Tbh i dont usually have that many thoughts on a tuesday as its one of those days you kinda forget that exist as it only acts as a fillip between Monday and Friday...however quite often these " shitty " days can lend themselves to more profitable situations than the much hyped big occasion meetings , so low level hcaps and maidens often turn in some good points for profit and that is why as a professional punter i often do much better on these low class days than the much vaunted disco days and today is no exception as we have 2 flat and 1 NH meetings to look at and its the flat i will be looking at trying to highlight some good betting options.

Firstly we shall go to Brighton...

The first race looks a 3 horse affair although i see this as a match up between the top 2 and ultimately a win for the Fav but at just over 2.0 the Fav and a shade under 3.0 the 2nd i would say the pro punt is a dutch if possible as i really cant see anything else getting involved at current odds the dutch pays around 1.20 and is imo a very good bet and would certainly fall under the banner.." pro bet ".- Iftar Wins @ 1.86 and Legacy of Love was a well beaten off 2nd ( 1st n 2nd Fav ).
- RESULT - 

Full Result

Pos	Dist	Horse	Trainer	Age	Weight	Jockey	SP
1st (4)		4 Iftaar (IRE)	C Hills	3	9-2	Dane O'Neill	4/5f
2nd (2)	1	6 A Legacy Of Love (IRE)	Mrs A J Perrett	3	8-11	R Havlin	15/8
opened 7/4

The 2nd race is a non entity in racing parlance as none of the 7 runners have secured any form of C or D victories and this is as modest a race as you will find.
a Dutch on Crystalized and Jazz Bay would be my call here although its not a race to go in too heavy on. - And its another WIN as CRYSTALIZED is 1st @ 3.14.
- RESULT - 

Full Result

Pos	Dist	Horse	Trainer	Age	Weight	Jockey	SP
1st (5)		3 Crystalized (IRE)	D K Ivory	3	8-9	D Sweeney	2/1f
In touch, rapid headway to lead 2f out, ridden out opened 15/8 touched 5/2
2nd (3)	1¾	2 Sweet Piccolo	P Butler	4	9-5	David Kenny (5)	20/1
Towards rear, ridden and headway over 1f out, went 2nd well inside final furlong, no threat to winner opened 33/1
3rd (1)	2¼	4 Jazz Bay	J J Bridger	3	8-9	S Hitchcott	8/1
Close up, ridden to chase winner over 1f out, kept on one pace, lost 2nd inside final furlong opened 15/2 touched 7/1

3rd race is a 5 runner Apprentice Hcap and is just as unappealing....with a stone separating top from bottom it may pay to stick with the lower weighted runners here especially as they have some form to bolster confidence, so again i am going in with a dutch on Salient and Megalala , however it must also be pointed out that at current odds this race rates a 9.8 on the Stat Lay scale ( followers will understand that ) and that makes the Fav ( currently Megalala ) very unappetizing....i will holster my bullets until nearer the time as i may have a monster LTB in this yet.- Another WIN but not as advertised as although MEGALALA won at Brighton for a 6th time after consideration i opted to make this a PPL race and Place Laid the top two in the betting and the 2nd Fav Minstrels Gallery was unplaced ;-).
- RESULT - 

Full Result

Pos	Dist	Horse	Trainer	Age	Weight	Jockey	SP
1st (2)		5 Megalala (IRE)	J J Bridger	13	9-2	Cam Hardie (3)	15/8
opened 7/4
2nd (4)	3½	6 Salient	M J Attwater	10	8-7	Rhiain Ingram (7)	8/1

And onto race 4 the fare just gets worse..now we are down to just 4 runners in another poor hcap...there are two ways to play this...Dutch the top two ( although Boonga Regatta is a decent win bet as its the stand out on back form by a mile ) or Dutch FAP the two outsiders ( better value than a PPL bet ) ....both bets have equal credence in a tight affair as they are weighted to run to with around 2L of each other , my personal bet will be the Dutch Fap at decent enough odds. - And another WIN as BOONGA REGATTA is 1st with Yojojo 2nd ( was 6.0 3rd fav this morning until about 1pm then got steadily backed all the way down to 3.15 ) - 
- RESULT - 

Full Result

Pos	Dist	Horse	Trainer	Age	Weight	Jockey	SP
1st (4)		1 Boonga Roogeta	P Charalambous	5	9-7	Rosie Jessop (3)	11/4
Led after 1f, made rest, ridden 2f out, joined inside final furlong, ran on gamely
2nd (1)	nse	2 Yojojo (IRE)	Miss Gay Kelleway	5	9-5	K Fallon	15/8j
Close up in 4th, effort on inner over 1f out, ridden to join winner inside final furlong, ran on but always looked held opened 7/2
3rd (2)	1¼	3 Familliarity	R Varian	4	8-11	Dane O'Neill	15/8j
Tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, not pace to challenge
4th (3)	1½	4 Mu'ajiza	P T Midgley	4	8-7	Martin Lane	8/1
Led 1f, tracked winner, ridden over 2f out, no extra inside final furlong

Race 5 is another small field shithouse of a race but could yet yield more profit than expected.
This is a good race to have a PPL bet in as the odds dictate a close affair ( as well as weight and ratings ) and both the two favs are Odds on in the place market...- Another Win race but not for me as this become a NO BET race , the Fav was UNPLACED @ 1.49 and the 2nd Fav was 2nd but that went off at 2.38 so become a no bet race..i should have taken the early prices ( 1.82 ) ...sometimes it works for and others against....But at least i got the read right.
- RESULT - 

Full Result

Pos	Dist	Horse	Trainer	Age	Weight	Jockey	SP
1st (4)		1 Ishiamber	George Baker	4	9-7	Martin Dwyer	7/2
Tracked leader, led 3f out, quickened 2 lengths clear approaching final furlong, ran on opened 4/1
2nd (2)	1¼	3 Eastern Dragon (IRE)	M Scudamore	4	9-1	Jack Duern (5)	7/2
Close up in rear, ridden 2f out, stayed on to go 2nd close home opened 4/1
3rd (5)	nk	2 Jaladee	R Varian	4	9-6	Jack Mitchell	6/5f
Tracked leaders, ridden to chase winner over 2f out, keeping on one pace inside final furlong when lost 2nd close home opened 5/4

Race 6 is an open looking smallish size semi sprint race and i dont really feel i have any angle here so i will just dutch the four outsiders of the 7 at double figure odds and cross my fingers...not a race to get involved in tbh..for the needy and greedy only...- This was another Winning race for me but only after Dandys Perrier become a Non Runner..reason..well it quite simply become a PPL race then as the two Favs were both 1.60 FAP and they had to be Place Laid as one of the other runners could ( and did ) easily run into a place or better....( if i had kept my original bet i would have been ok as i would have traded all three with two getting matched at 2.14 and 2.32 respectively from bfsp's of 9.91 and 9.97 , would have traded out at 3.0 on all three for a profit / small loss so would have been fine )
- RESULT - 

Full Result

Pos	Dist	Horse	Trainer	Age	Weight	Jockey	SP
1st (3)		3 Lady Horatia	W R Muir	3	9-6	Martin Dwyer	13/8f
Tracked leader, ridden to lead entering final 2f, drew clear inside final furlong opened 7/4
2nd (5)	6	2 Baars Causeway (IRE)	A P Jarvis	3	9-7	K Fallon	8/1
Tracked leaders, ridden to chase winner just inside final furlong, no impresssion
3rd (2)	1½	1 Skinny Love	Miss Z C Davison	3	9-7 p	L P Keniry	14/1
Led, ridden and headed entering final 2f, kept on same pace opened 8/1
4th (1)	2½	5 Spinning Cobblers	S C Williams	3	9-2	Dane O'Neill	8/1
In rear, soon pushed along, ridden over 2f out, some headway over 1f out, not trouble leaders opened 6/1
5th (7)	1	4 Coiste BoDhar (IRE)	J Tuite	3	9-4	Nora Looby (7)	7/4
Taken to post early, raced wide in touch, ridden over 2f out, not trouble leaders opened 9/4

Finally to round off a poor card we have yet another poor turnout for this sprint and a Vincetti / Secret Missile Dutch is the bet for me although you can just about sneak a FAP dutch as well...but i feel the Win Dutch looks stronger , i will also be PPLing this race but not at current odds i will leave " Keep " bets in at 1.56 and caping as soon as first two get matched then hope for a turn around....- And to round the Card off we have another winning race  , the Dutch was caped as Vincetti become a non runner around 1500 however the Keep PPL bet was a WIN as three runners hit 1.03 or lower with the eventual winner Hamoody being the last to match at 1.56 and Secret Missile the first to match and was 3rd...;-))...for a poor days racing its turned out quite profitable ;-)0..ttfn.x

Well that sums up a poor day but should prove a profitable one if played right...time will tell...lets crack on with some bizzo now...ttfn x ( Results to follow as per norm thru the day )...

Viva La France !! ...

Miss France (7/1) ran out a brave winner of the QIPCO 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on Sunday.

• 

1 / 2

Miss France edges out Lightning Thunder and Ihtimal in a thrilling QIPCO 1000 Guineas

The first fillies' Classic was one of the few big European prizes to elude master trainer Andre Fabre but the daughter of Dansili ensured it was added to his CV with a neck verdict over Lightning Thunder (14/1).

In a pulsating finish Maxime Guyon's partner first fended off the challenge of eventual third Ihtimal (7/1) inside the final furlong and then had to withstand the late thrust of the runner-up who raced closer to the stands' rails.

In a race run at a steady early gallop, few of those held-up were ever able to land a telling blow.Miss France and Lightning Thunder had filled the same placings in last season's Oh So Sharp Stakes at the same track.

Richard Hannon's Manderley defied her huge odds, and having set the pace the 100-1 chance was still in front with a furlong to run before finishing fourth

Euro Charline turned the tables on her Nell Gwyn conqueror Sandiva and ran a big race just out of the frame

There was huge market confidence behind Aidan O'Brien's Tapestry who was sent off favourite but was virtually pulled up, while Lucky Kristale was far too keen for her own good.

Clive Brittain's Rizeena was not totally disgraced, coming home just behind the leaders.

Fabre said: "This means a lot, I trained the dam of the filly and I could not be more delighted. It was not the way I wanted her ridden, but it worked. She will get further, that is not a problem. She'll go for the Prix de Diane next, her dam won over a mile and a half.

"I got confident in the last 10 days after her bad (seasonal) debut. She worked brilliantly, after that I told the owner we'd go to Newmarket. There was a question mark after her first run this year but I knew that race wasn't to be believed.

"I was a bit perturbed when she hit the front so early as she idles. I think the best filly I've ever trained was Golden Lilac, she was an an explosive filly, this filly is now more relaxed. t wasn't bothering me that I hadn't won this race, otherwise I'd have tried many times before."

Guyon added: "The plan was to be at the back but she jumped really good, she relaxed really well and showed a good turn of foot. She felt like a different filly from the Imprudence but there was no pace in that race. She's a very, very good filly, and maybe is the best at the moment."

A proud Olly Stevens said of the runner-up: "We're thrilled, this is childhood dream stuff, to be here with a horse of this quality. She's in the Irish Guineas, but she'd have to really bounce out of this to go on the ferry. She goes well fresh so it's more than likely that we'll save her for the Coronation Stakes at Ascot."

Ihtimal shaped well on her return to British racing and was cut to 16-1 from 40s by Sky Bet for the Investec Oaks.

Trainer Saeed bin Suroor said: "She ran a good race. But a mile and a half is the best trip for her. She has come to win her race and was staying on well but the winner is a miler.

"She has worked well she came here ready to run her race and she ran well. I am pleased with her. She will head to the Oaks now. She will go straight there."

2000 Guineas Day >>>>

                                  
Morning All ,
                   We are finally here , its the start of the Classic Year with the years first Classic the 2000 Guineas and both the 1000 & the 2000 Guineas look very smart this year and as competitive as a race that i can remember in a long time.
We have a race ( 2000 Guineas ) that has it all , Form choices, Hype Horses , expected improvers , seasonal debutantes and a lot of hyperbole....and a decent looking support card so lets see if we can nail a few winners...

    <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<NEWMARKET>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

RACE 1

WIN - BIG BAZ -
EW - STAND MY GROUND -
LONG - ROSEARROW -

Full Result

Pos	Dist	Horse	Trainer	Age	Weight	Jockey	SP
1st (6)		12 Niceofyoutotellme	R M Beckett	5	8-8 h	Jim Crowley	10/1
Held up, bumped over 2f out, headway 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on
2nd (19)	nk	14 Ajmany (IRE)	L M Cumani	4	8-7 b	Andrea Atzeni	14/1
Mid-division, headway 2f out, ridden and ran on, not reach winner opened 16/1
3rd (17)	1¾	5 Bold Sniper	Sir Michael Stoute	4	9-3 h	R L Moore	9/1
Keen towards rear, headway over 1f out, switched right inside final furlong, ran on, not reach leaders
4th (12)	2	1 Trumpet Major (IRE)	Richard Hannon	5	9-10 t1	R Hughes	14/1
Prominent, ridden to lead 1f out, headed and no extra inside final furlong £10000-£500 £8000-£500 £4800-£300

SUMMARY : We start the day off with a ridic looking 19 runner Hcap over 1m1f...the proverbial Cavalry Charge....this should crack a few placepots, ruin the scoop and douse a few hearts...but lets not get too down hearted as i feel there is plenty of dead wood in this and im sure from three arrows we can get at least one to place...
The first on our list would have to be BIG BAZ a strapping great son of Pivotal and a very lightly raced sort that is open to any amount of improvement , with just the three runs behind him which include two victories and a distance win this Willie Muir inmate can be expected to improve further this season.
Big Baz has thus far only raced on the AW which is both good and bad...The bad part is the unknown factor of how he will act on the turf , will he carry his form forward?...well if the ground stays on the better side of good or good then i dont think it will be an issue and tbh being a Pivotal if the ground was to run soft i wouldnt be overly concerned now onto the good..well as his form is all on the AW he comes into this race on a lowly AW rating of just 85 and if his form was on turf i would be inclined to rate him at 95 which is fair enough as his last run a 3rd was a close affair behind a 92 rated runner in Star Links ( good yardstick ) and with improvement expected i think this is easily capable of running to a mark approaching 100 which puts him right in the mix and his current price of 11/1 looks reasonable although i was hoping for at least 16/1 tbh...this must have a very live chance in a wide open race.
I also like the look of STAND MY GROUND from the in form partnership of O'Meara / Tudhope , this last ran in the Spring Mile at Doncaster in soft ground but ran 2nd of 22 so is able and experienced in big field events was running on at the end and i dont see the trip posing any problems and Finally i think we should have ROSEARROW from the Balding stable this is very much an in and out performer but is very capable on his day and is another that come 2nd lto but looked the likeliest winner for all money 2f out as it was tanking along but the eventual winner grabbed first run and wasnt going to be pegged back , more forceful tactics could see an improved performance.

NOTES: All Unplaced and out of the Placepot at the first attempt...solid runs from all three , Big Baz run into room at an important time , Stand My ground was coming thru at the end but too late and Rosearrow just ran out of puff after leading or being with the leaders for most....Tough start...Lets hope the quadpot can return me a payday..

_____________________________________
RACE 2

WIN - ROCKY GROUND -
EW - JUSTINEO -
LONG - MOVIESTA -

Full Result

Pos	Dist	Horse	Trainer	Age	Weight	Jockey	SP
1st (6)		9 Sole Power	E Lynam	7	9-2	R L Moore	9/4f
opened 11/4 £3000-£1000(x3) £5500-£2000 £2750-£1000(x2) £5000-£2000 £2500-£1000(x3) £1250-£500(x3)
2nd (9)	½	5 Kingsgate Native (IRE)	R M H Cowell	9	9-2 h	Jim Crowley	12/1
3rd (3)	hd	11 Hot Streak (IRE)	K A Ryan	3	8-10	Harry Bentley	7/1
opened 6/1 £3600-£600
4th (4)	nk	10 Stepper Point	W R Muir	5	9-2 p	Martin Dwyer	16/1
opened 14/1
5th (10)	1	6 Moviesta (USA)	B Smart	4	9-2	P Mulrennan	15/2
opened 8/1 £3600-£450
6th (8)	nk	4 Justineo	R Varian	5	9-2 b	Andrea Atzeni	12/1

SUMMARY : Next up we have the Palace House Stakes over 5f and with 12 runners and this is generally won by a classy speedster with the winner usually coming from within the front four in the betting and is a decent race for favs.
Once again one of my " lemming " horses runs Kingsgate Native and once again i will have a go...this can win when it wants but time is catching up ( now 9 ) and will no doubt be as unpredictable as ever..-2nd @ 17.0
Pearl Secret must come into the reckoning as it looks to stake a claim for being one of the leading European sprinters this year but my stats tell me this still has a good few pound to find before it can lay claim to any titles and today will be overlooked by me and the same comments more or less can be laid upon the other Qatar runner Hot Streak...both come with bags of potential but both have something to prove and need to find a few lb of improvement.
Sole Power is a very very quick horse on its day but i think the ground might be a tad slow for him if this had been good to firm or quicker then i would have said yes a def probable but not if it turns good/soft...
Eton Rifles has a undistinguished record over 5f and im not convinced this is his trip...ROCKY GROUND is one i like as this arrives here as an improver with room for more improvement to come and has thus far run some very good splits and FT's and i think with Frankie taking the plate this 4yr old could have the key.
Hi stablemate JUSTINEO also comes into my reckoning on the back of a very consistent run of races last season hitting some good times and showing a very adaptable attitude and this could easily make the frame or better with a decent run from Atzeni.
 Finally i think we can have MOVIESTA on our side as this had run some very consistent and quick races last year with a few nice wins thrown in , forget its last run which was a no show, slowly away and wrongly drawn this was never a factor but had previously strung a good sequence together and is well worth his place in any sprint of any class.

NOTES: The ground is riding on the firm side as this brought SOLE POWER right into the equation and he Won as he could on his ideal ground., my three selections were based on the ground being on the soft side of good...but its now riding good , good to firm and there is little cut...so its kinda thrown the whole card off piste tbh...thats the problem doing advanced cards...can be unpredictable....

_____________________________________
RACE 3

WIN - TRADING LEATHER - ( NAP ) - Piss Poor 3rd.....@ 1.70
EW - PETHERS MOON - 2nd @ 13.50
LONG - N/A -

SUMMARY : Now the older brigade get involved as we hold the Jockey Club Stakes a race over 1m4f and a tight looking race with the exception of one.
The exception of one applies to TRADING LEATHER now with the boys in blue but still in the care of Jim Bolger this stars light had shone brightest when winning the Irish Derby last year and then ran with merit coming second twice in the King George V and then the Juddmonte before rounding the season off with a solid 3rd in the Irish Champion Stakes i have to say i was a little surprised when it won the Derby ( Irish )  but it did show a very willing attitude after and although it couldnt follow this up with another win i feel their is more to come from this and getting a very useful age allowance i think it will be somewhat of a surprise if this cannot prove himself to be different class to these mostly exposed types who although useful are very much a ronseal bunch.

NOTES: Trading Leather ran awkward and was all over the place, never travelled and never pulled a twig...group 1 winner to swerve...

_____________________________________
RACE 4

WIN - KINGSTON HILL -
EW - WAR COMMAND -
LONG - OUTSTRIP -

SUMMARY : Now its the time for the BIG one the 2000 GUINEAS and the years first Classic , as many readers will know i have already summarised a bit about this and my views on KINGSTON HILL who i think is an outstanding bet but it will be no cake walk thats for sure.
This race has generally been won by something a little bit special , Frankel , See The Stars , Camelot and Dawn Approach are just a few of the recent winners..what a list....what a fantasy race that would make...I think Kingston Hill can join those ranks but we also have a few others that will make a solid charge for the title and the winners enclosure , WAR COMMAND is one i like a lot and a horse that looks very useful along with Shifting Power , Australia has a lot to prove and ive not been concerned or convinced by the Coolmore Hyperbole , Toormore is imo not quite up to this level yet and then we have the much talked about and much vaunted KINGMAN now this horse does look and travel like its all class but i also think ( just my opinion ) this looks and travels more like a sprinter and i dont think it will lack for stamina but im not convinced it can run a time around 1m38 i think it will travel well, make a move quicken then flat line and at that point probably within the final 1f it will get overhauled demoting it to 2nd or even 3rd....Noozah Canarias is a dark horse i like and could be another " Makfi " , OUTSTRIP is very very interesting as this was well held and comfortably beaten by War Command over 7f in the Dewhurst but then ran a much improved race over 1m when following up that with a Win in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf race beating the very useful Bobbys Kitten but the close proximity of Giovanni Boldini is a worry as i dont really rate that much..but none the less a good run and another of equal should see him in the mix.

NOTES: The old " Back the Hannon 2nd..or 3rd...string " strikes again as Hannon Wins with Night of Thunder under Kieron Fallon @ 64/1.....strange race with two split groups , odd pace and tough tactically...Kingman made a move and looked the winner until getting collared close home with Australia running on for 3rd...

_____________________________________
RACE 5

WIN - DEEDS NOT WORDS -
EW - PERFECT ALCHEMY -
LONG - STARS ABOVE ME -

SUMMARY : 6F Hcap for 3 yr olds now and a tricky affair it is...

NOTES:

_____________________________________
RACE 6

WIN - CLOUDSCAPE -
EW - BREMNER -
LONG - MUTTAKAYEF -

SUMMARY :......

NOTES:

_____________________________________
RACE 7

WIN - BORN IN BOMBAY -
EW - MONSEA -
LONG - YENHAAB -

SUMMARY :.....

NOTES:

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Punchestown Thoughts....

Its Thursday and day 3 of this very grand Punchestown Festival and whilst i have a few moments to spare before racing proper starts i thought i would share with you some of my EW fancies for today from here....

1. Green Energy / Grey Monk - Unplaced / Unplaced

2. Parsnip Pete & Ned Buntline - Fell / 4th @ 4.50 ( 1.65 )

3. Nedzers Return & Jacks Island - Unplaced  / 1st @ 48.65

4. Fingal Bay & At Fishers Cross - Unplaced / 3rd @ 5.80 ( 1.55 ) 

5. The Crafty Butcher & Moonlight Boy - 3rd @ 30.54 ( 4.90 ) / Unplaced 

6. Gods Own & Trifolium - 1st @ 50.0 / Unplaced 

7. Morga & Western Diva - 1st @ 6.48 / Unplaced

8. Honkytonktennessee & Most Peculiar - Unplaced / Unplaced

**With a near 16,000/1 Treble i think today can be considered a success ;-))...

These are not selections i feel can win but should give me a decent run for my money and some fun thru the afternoon...i have some EW trebles going on and the usual dutches...you never know...* Sideways glance at Punting >>...Back on Sat for a Full Guineas Card...ttfn x.