Friday, 13 February 2015

Happy Weekend ;-)

Yeah i know its still Friday but its the weekend post so its a " Happy Weekend "...or is it ?...well its been a turbulent week for many a reason for me as my personal life has been knocked sideways...again....but hopefully this time is the last time...but then again who really knows what the future holds....

So on a quiet week with little or no betting for again a variety of reasons i look forward to the weekend with a renewed vigor and huge amount of interest and excitement and to celebrate this we will have a 10 race card incorporating the full 7 races from ASCOT and a select 3 races from HAYDOCK on what looks to be a cracking looking weekend of racing.

So without further ado lets crack on with Ascot....

RACE 1 : 

WIN : TEA FOR TWO - 2nd @ 4/9
EW : N/A -
LONG : N/A -

SUMMARY : We start the day off with a poorly turned out £20k Novice hurdle and it has just the 4 runners and i simply dont see how bar a fall ( which is unlikely ) how on earth this can possibly lose and that horse is TEA FOR TWO who hosed up lto in the Lanzarote ( form has been heavily franked ) by 16L.....bar an act of god this is a Frankel sized Certainty.

RESULTS / NOTES : imo this was just a very poor ride from Lizzie Kelly....fucking bullshit start to the day...

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RACE 2 : 

WIN : VIRAK - ( NAP DOUBLE ) -
EW :  DEPUTY DAN -
LONG : N/A

SUMMARY : Next up is yet another disappointingly small field and yet another with just the 4 runners and its the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Chase worth over £30k.
In truth this is just a 3 runner race as Phone Home looks hopelessly outclassed and would appear to hold no chance what so ever however the other three are very closely matched and i think it may be decided on the day by those that make the least amount of mistakes.
Deputy Dan has promised much yet delivered little for a horse that has so much talent and until he starts to shine a lot brighter will continually be over looked in these better class events even if the numbers are small and he has also shown himself subject to a number of errors which would prove costly on the day.
Ainsi Fideles rattled up a sequence in the summer in low grade small field events beating very little and has it all to prove today and i think he will find VIRAK a tough nut to crack , Virak holds Deputy Dan on Autumn form and should be a few lb better and its my opinion that he will win this quite comfortably given a stress free round of jumping although well beaten lto that was by one of the up n coming superstars of the NH game in the shape of Coneygree and the price will be short but a Double with Tea For Two in the first looks a nailed on bet imo and has to be placed.

RESULTS / NOTES : Thankfully i had some saver cover here to get a bit back with trading...but ultimately this was a very lack luster run from Virak..


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RACE 3 : 

WIN : CAROLES DESTRIER - 1st @ 2.32
EW : SHANGANI -
LONG : CLONDAW KNIGHT - 2nd @ 4.70

SUMMARY : Next up its a £45k Listed Hcap Chase and with an eye watering 7 runners...oh heavens?!..whats a man to do ;-)...seriously i know Cheltfest is just round the corner but just 15 runners in the first 3 races for £100 in Prizemoney...what is wrong with these fuck sticks??!!...
Anyway..lets not get dragged down in all that shiz and lets focus on the race at hand...
This race sees a huge variance in the weight which is coupled with an apparent gulf in class and most here are unreliable at best so for me im going to row in with CAROLES DESTRIER as this is most likely to give its true running over a trip considered to be its best and with Big Bazzer riding this will be given every opportunity.

RESULTS / NOTES :

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RACE 4 : 

WIN : MINELLAS PRESENT -
EW : MINSTRELS GALLERY -
LONG : PADGE - 2nd @ 7.33

SUMMARY : 7  Runner Hcap Hurdle now and its another Bookies Benefit race.
None of the field arrive here with any decent form on show and again most are inconsistent at best and i think a speculative choice can be MINELLAS PRESENT who just tanked out on the run in lto but that was over 2f further and with Ruby Walsh doing the steering today i think its fair to say this will be given an astute ride and will make a late charge to see the others off plus i feel the price may be on the juicy side.

RESULTS / NOTES : The two Minstrels both ran appallingly and it was my initial selection the JP runner that won...

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RACE 5 : 

WIN : BALDER SUCCESS -1st @ 5.63
EW : PITT ZIG - Fell ( Was going n jumped well till this )
LONG : N/A -

SUMMARY : Next up is todays big race and its the Betfair ASCOT CHASE a Grade 1 over 2m5f and again its a relatively small field with just the 6 runners competing for over £100k in prizemoney.
PITT ZIG is a horse i like a lot and although this will be its first attempt outside of novice company i see no reason why it should run anything but a solid race , its on the up for sure and has beaten some useful sorts along the way however Balder Success will be a bit tougher than anything hes yet faced and i do feel that this will be a straight up duel between the two as Ballycasey has been misfiring of late but can take a hand on her best form whilst Theater Guide will be outclassed and outpaced and the remainder have a mountain to climb.

RESULTS / NOTES :

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RACE 6 : 

WIN : OTAGO TRAIL -
EW : VINNIE RED -
LONG : SIRABAD -

SUMMARY : Small field Novice Hurdle now and there is little to discuss here , OTAGO TRAIL has won both starts to date with consummate ease and will make a very bold bid for the Hat Trick and should be backed to win.

RESULTS / NOTES : Nothing for me here but no bet so no damage and PP was dead...Going to get stuck into my NAP now...

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RACE 7 : 

WIN : JOE FARRELL - ( NAP )
EW : BIG CHIEF BENNY -
LONG : ALWAYS LION -

SUMMARY : In the finale we have a very very strong looking NHF race over 2m.
JOE FARRELL has to rate a max bet and a NAP bet on form alone as his lto 2nd has been massively franked as the winner that day has since gone on and won the Listed Bumper at Warwick and that is super form and a run to that level or beyond sees him bang in the mix.

RESULTS / NOTES :

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Haydock to follow....Maybe...

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