Thursday, 18 December 2014

Thursday Best Bets...

Hi All ,
           Not a lot been happening this week nut it is Thursday which means we are another day nearer the weekend ;-) , i thought as im here with a few minutes of spare time on my hand i would post up what i consider to be the days best bets...if any....EW's or Win....and you can compare these against your own selections for thought...

SOUTHWELL >

1. Danseur Noble would be my EW selection here as Tates runners are often over priced and under bet yet he gets some nice sorts but is it worth a bet....only if i was at the track...otherwise for the " Pro " punter this race offers little. - 1st @ 4.74

2. Pat Mustard is the obvious choice in this very weak Claimer but is again a No Bet for me.- Unplaced ( Although this was a good win for me as it was a PPL race and both ran unplaced at 1.47 & 1.63 )

3. Mini Skirt and Laika will have this between themselves as the remainder look very poor and a dutch is a possibility but at 1.23 offers little to get me enthused however it does look nailed on and i may well end up getting involved. - These were predictably 1st n 2nd ;-).

4. Generous Dream is the only one that arrives here with any real semblance of form and its last run was over this CD and was only beaten a Head so the current 4.90 looks a very strong EW bet and i have to get involved with this W/P %...traded down to 2.26 but was never going to be winning this...another poor showing..;(..c'mon lets have another winner please..

5. Red Primo has only had 3 runs on the fibresand and has won all three with other runs elsewhere a great deal poorer so this surface must bring out the best in him and at 15.0 looks an outstanding EW bet in a race which in earnest requires a Magic Pin and this is as good a bet as you will find here as does appeal to me for the use of in Acca'a etc...Did nothing im afraid but my Friend Alan Winter nailed the winner @ 10.0 so it was good for the group ;-)..WD Alan.

6. Incomparable has been raised in the weights for winning over CD recently but is still well within its winning range and is good for another couple of pounds and with the claimer negating some this has to be worth as punt to follow up in a closely knit sprint and the current 11.0 looks very appealing for EW bets. - Another Fail although another group friend and compatriot E.R.I.C got the 2nd @ 22.60 which was a decent bet and a good effort.

7. Jacobs Son looks the likeliest winner in an unappealing finale. - 2nd @ 3.75 but comfortably beaten.

Best Bets : EW Trixie / Patent etc on 4,5 & 6 with more speculative punts arising on the Dutch on 3 and a double on Pats Mustard and Jacobs Son.

TOWCESTER >

1. Dont like the Alan King Fav in this as its all ifs n buts but the 3.55 is too high to lay anything in the 2's and i will  jump in with a lay however the bet here for me is a speculative but well thought out Fap Dutch on Wish in a Well and Too Much Too Soon who are both in their 20's and both have it in them to get involved in this for contrasting reasons in a race with little strength in depth. - The Alan King Fav was indeed beaten at 2.98 however to offset that win my fap dutch failed lol as the best i could get was..wait for it....yes you guessed it..4th...haha

2. Mudita Moment in a poor but tight contest.- Well beaten in a trite and contrional race won for the 2nd time today by the rank outsider...

3. Kincora Fort was beaten lto by a smart novice and the 3rd who was a further 6L back bloted up recently suggesting this form is smart and considering the winner is now rated 120 this has a good few pounds clear of its rivals and i will be very surprised ( and disappointed for EPDS Racing ) if this cannot win here..NAP. > Very Very disappointing effort as it struggled to even place after travelling well and trading for most at 1.41 it then just emptied...poor showing and disappointing for Tracey at EPDS.

4. Royaume Bleu and Somerby both at around 15/1 look the most likely to give their running and a FAP Dutch looks a very good bet here and i will be getting involved in this as it looks strong in a race which hosts so many disappointing types...this could be a good earner. > in fact this was a very nice loss lol as both ran miserably...;((

5. Comical Red EW in a poor race with poor runners. > Faller

6. Vinnies Little Lamb & Wicklewood looks an outstanding FAP DUTCH with both having the potential to be placed or better. > YAY as Wicklewood WINS @ 10.40 ;-))

7. Presenting Lisa looks a strong bet in the finale as this former PTP Winner looks to hold all the aces, loves the ground , loves the trip is by Presenting so will be bred for the job at hand and is trained by the in form A King whop can do little wrong at the minute..NB bet. - 1st @ 2.02

Best Bets : Win Singles and Double on Kincora Fort / Presenting Lisa and some EW Doubles n Trebles on races 1,4 and 6.

EXETER >

1. Nitrogen is a very interesting runner as big things were expected until it got injured and has had a subsequent almost 3 year lay off but its been backed iin from 5.70 into 2.56 suggesting the cat has been let out of the bag and its obviously due a big run however it will have to run in the low 120's to beat Winter Walk for me Nitrogen is a Lay at 2.60 ( ish ) but its really just a race to watch....Nitrogen can only manage 2nd so the Lay was good but in truth it actually ran quite well and i feel this may be worth following as it only weakened from the last and couldnt maintain its charge to the line as Brandon Hill kept on.

2. Shammick Boy looks a good EW bet at 7.0 now running in this race ( 5th last year ) 13lb lower than his last effort and arrives in decent enough form. - BooM 1st @ 5.03 ( Early price looking good )

And thats it as i have now run out of time...Have a good day all ( results to follow each post ) .

Saturday, 13 December 2014

Sha Tin Yankee or Shi tee ..

On the back of a stellar day at Cheltenham i have decided to post without summary my 4 from Hong Kong these may be Phooey or Woo Hooey...time will tell....

1. FLINTSHIRE - WIN  7/4 - ( NAP ) - 1st @ 11/8

2. LUCKY NINE - EW  11/2 - 5th

3. ABLE FRIEND - WIN - 11/10 ( NB ) - 1st @ 4/6

4. ARCHIMEDES - EW - 10/1 - UNP

Friday, 12 December 2014

Peace n Co...Lets Have it ;-)

Morning / Afternoon / Evening ( Delete as appropriate or don't..couldn't give two shits either way ) ,

                             
   

The last few weeks have been rather frustrating as ive been starting hot dying in the middle then coming home hot...which is kinda annoying but im staying ahead of the game which i spoze is kinda the aim...making a profit n earning a crust but just every now n then i would like to taste the whole sandwich instead of feasting on the crumbs of my success....
                                            
So as we move into Saturday and my highlight of the week as im allowed out to play and i can have some fun we look to DAY 2 of the International Meeting at what is really the home of National Hunt racing and that is Cheltenham after scoring 3 times from 6 races yesterday and making a fair profit i will be more than happy to repeat this trick ;-)..lets see how we get on...

CHELTENHAM

RACE 1 : Hendo...what an absolute cunt..." Hargam is a big baby and i think its unlikely in truth ( that he can win ) as he will need this..."....and it wins..Just... but looks a good sort and one with heart as he battled on to the line , Stars over the sea didnt really seem to truly stay and its a major disappointment he will win races but not in this grade...shame but thats racing for ya.

WIN : STARS OVER THE SEA ( NAP ) - 3rd
EW : KAREZAK - 2nd @ 6.06
LONG : N/A -

SUMMARY : We start the day off with a JCB Trial and sadly we only end up with a handful in class terms in a small field size of just 8 which is poor for a £20k race however lets focus on what we do have and that is STARS OVER THE SEA who is a former 99 rated flat runner ( racing last season ) who will imo prove to be one of the classiest flat recruits we have seen and this bravado was shown to be true fto as it coasted home and then followed that up by winning in a canter even allowing the odd mistake and i know Hendo doesnt fancy Hargam in this which speaks volumes and i cannot see beyond this huge son of Sea The Stars.

                                              ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1stHargam (FR)N J Henderson311-0A P McCoy8/11f
Took keen hold early, held up in 5th, closed from 3 out, went 2nd after 2 out, challenged last, soon led, stayed on opened 10/11 £1818-£2000 £1090-£1200(x3) £2500-£3000(x4) £333-£400 £250-£300(x2)
2ndKarezak (IRE)A King311-3 v1W Hutchinson9/2
Tracked leader, challenged after 3 out, led 2 out, mistake last, soon headed, hung left flat, held towards finish opened 4/1
3rd29Stars Over The Sea (USA)D  Pipe311-7T Scudamore4/1
Led, hit 4th, headed 2 out, soon beaten, lost 3rd when mistake last, regained 3rd towards finish, no chance with leading pair opened 9/2 £2700-£600

                                              ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 2 : Champagne West Won well enough after a good running battle with Un Ace but looked the winner all the way round , Little Jon looked to be running a big race until he ran out.

WIN : CHAMPAGNE WEST - ( NB ) - 1st @ 1.46
EW : UN ACE -
LONG : N/A -

SUMMARY : Another small field for this Chase but all 4 runners are quite close in both ratings and ability and all have conditions to suit so i dont see much in this but i do think Brooky (  owner S Brookhouse ) will expect to collect on a double here and in truth i think it could prove different gravy , Un Ace looks good and has won its last two races well but is again upped in class and has it to prove whilst CHAMPAGNE WEST has already beatenb a very reliable yardstick in Colour Squadron and that is the stand out piece of form and for me that makes it the bet in this...not massively confident but worth a nibble n a squeak.

                                              ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1stChampagne West (IRE)P J Hobbs611-8R Johnson2/5f
Tracked leaders, mistake 10th, not fluent next, went 2nd 12th, about 1 length down when left in lead 4 out, shaken up 2 out, not fluent last, driven out opened 8/13 £600-£975 £400-£900 £3000-£7500
2ndUn Ace (FR)K C Bailey611-8A P McCoy9/2
Chased leader until not fluent 12th, left 2nd 4 out, challenged 2 out, awkward landing last, no impression final 100 yards opened 3/1
ROLittle JonN A Twiston-Davies611-5S Twiston-Davies11/2
Led, clear until after 3rd, reached for 10th, about 1 length up when ran out 4 out opened 9/2

                                              ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 3 : What can i say other than BooM for me as my LOTD gets Pulled Up ;-) and im still in the Place pot.....half way ..

WIN : KARINGA DANCER -
EW : BOLD HENRY -
LONG : SEW ON TARGET - 1st @ 8.55

SUMMARY : A very tight Hcap Chase is up next and its not as you should know a race i like much as these are often left to the laps of gods and you usually need more than a pinch of luck to succeed in these ( so maybe i should just ask Tricky Dicky and he can use his magic pin ??...without the aid of such mystical marvels i am left to rummage rather grubbily thru the pages of associated form and will have to work out a game plan and gather some thoughts on this..Great quote quotes love quotes life quotes and sayings

In truth the only bet im having here is a LAY on SOLAR IMPULSE as i find this as resolute as pan fired butter and is not one i would have any confidence in and the price to lay is very attractive ( 2.58 ) , what can or will win ?...well for the place pot and punters im gonna say its gonna be between Karinga Dancer and Bold Henry..but im clutching at less than straw....
                                              ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1stSew On Target (IRE)C L Tizzard911-0Brendan Powell13/2
Made all, ridden 3 lengths clear 2 out, stayed on well
2nd5Astracad (FR)N A Twiston-Davies811-0 tRyan Hatch (5)4/1
Tracked leaders, not fluent 5th, hit 4 out, went 2nd when jumped left 2 out, stayed on flat, unable to trouble winner
3rd9Karinga DancerH Fry811-10 tN D Fehily6/1
Held up towards rear, headway 4 out, went 3rd 2 out, no impression last, one pace
4th6Bold HenryP J Hobbs811-0A P McCoy11/4j
Held up in rear, headway when not fluent and hampered 4 out, ridden when mistake 2 out, no impression, no extra last opened 3/1 £1200-£400

                                              ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 4 : BooooooooooM as my Faith in Niceonefrankie is rewarded !!!...and im still in the PP with a couple of extra lines...

WIN : CAID DU BERLAIS - Fell
EW : NICEONEFRANKIE - 1st @ 19.50
LONG : BARRAKILLA - 2nd @ 6.31

SUMMARY : Now we move onto the possibly the days biggest race the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup which is a £90k race of G3 stature but Class 1 in formality and has attracted as one would hope for a pretty decent line up however the field is almost entirely made up of would have, should have , could have's and if only types as so many of these have class ability and are proper racers yet so many if not all quite often have neither shown in consistently or often falter ( flatter to deceive ) which makes picking the winner a tough nut to crack and it could be a Ricky Race lol.. ( arent so many haha ) ...Barrakilla can run well off a low weight and should be competitive but the 6.6 is a tad skinny for me here and is overlooked for that reason alone , If the ground cuts up then Niceonefrankie will probably be my selection but thats not a given so thats on hold so CAID DU BERLAIS becomes the obvious selection and i find it disappointing that at this point i can find no alternative to the favourite at 5.0 but i will watch the ground conditions as im quite keen on having a go on Niceonefrankie but it is ground dependent but even so the 20/1 is mighty tempting as a free EW.

                                              ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1stNiceonefrankieMiss V Williams811-5Aidan Coleman16/1
Prominent, led 3rd, clear from 10th, in no danger after, ridden out opened 20/1
2nd612 Barrakilla (IRE)Evan Williams710-12Paul Moloney9/2j
Tracked leaders, outpaced when slightly hampered 4 out, stayed on approaching 2 out, went 2nd close home, no impression on winner
3rd½Edgardo Sol (FR)Miss E C Lavelle711-12N D Fehily14/1
Jumped left, held up, mistake 11th, headway when hit 4 out, went 2nd behind clear leader after 3 out, no impression, stayed on, lost 2nd close home

                                              ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 5 : 

WIN : BLAKLION - 1st @ 3.50
EW : PARISH BUSINESS -
LONG : PORT MELON -

SUMMARY : Next up its the Albert Bartlett a race over 3m and its a hurdle race with Class 1 status which would normally get a good turn out but yet again we have just 6 runners in a £30k race...very poor however even last place gets their petrol money paid home...Take Volcanic Jack out of the race and its as wide open an event as you could possibly imagine but its possible that these may give PARISH BUSINESS so much rope out in front that they simply will all hang themselves as Aiden Coleman is a great jockey from the front ( and elsewhere but he is ace on a front runner as he knows how to switch em on n off ) and this son of Fruits of Love is a different beast when dictating and the 5.0 is a nice price to play with however Blaklion and Port Melon offer very good opposition and this should be an interesting race.

                                              ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1stBlaklionN A Twiston-Davies511-7Ryan Hatch9/4
Tracked leaders, challenged after 3 out, led before next, drew clear approaching last, stayed on well opened 2/1 £1800-£800 £900-£400
2nd11Anteros (IRE)Mrs S Leech611-4 tPaul Moloney33/1
Held up in rear, not fluent 3 out, headway from 2 out, went 2nd before last, no chance with winner, stayed on same pace opened 25/1
3rdPort Melon (IRE)P F Nicholls611-0 p1S Twiston-Davies7/4f
Pressed leader, every chance when pecked 2 out, ridden and no impression on winner when losing 2nd before last, stayed on one pace opened 2/1
4th5Parish BusinessMiss E C Lavelle611-0 tAidan Coleman5/1
Led, not fluent 1st, headed before 2 out, 4th and outpaced before last opened 9/2

                                              ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 6 : Placepot landed as well anything over £27 ( Paid £67 ) is profit x 2 ;-)...TNO wins quite well quickening away for a comfy win..

WIN : THE NEW ONE - 1st @ 1.64
EW : N/A
LONG : N/A

SUMMARY : We round off our day with the Stan James Hurdle and one of my favourite horses in training runs so all im going to say is THE NEW ONE...shitty price but this is different gravy and bar an act of god wins probably not even off the bridle with only Vertieaux having the remotest bit of class or ability to make this any type of race but Mad Moose will make em all smile....

                                              ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1stThe New One (IRE)N A Twiston-Davies611-8S Twiston-Davies4/7f
opened 8/15 £4000-£7000 £2857-£5000 £400-£700 £286-£500 £229-£400 £1387-£2600 £1067-£2000 £640-£1200 £533-£1000(x2) £400-£750 £261-£490 £213-£400(x2)
2ndVaniteux (FR)N J Henderson511-0B J Geraghty5/2
3rd6Olofi (FR)T R George811-0 ptW Hutchinson25/1

                                              ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 7 : PPL RACE

Have a Great day all , good luck.....

PS : Elsewhere look out for these ,

1. PEACE N CO ( Been told this is the dogs bollocks ) - 1st @ 1.96 ( Absolutely bolted up never off the bridle )

2. ROC D'APSIS ( Text from insider saying that its in it for the win ) - 4th ( Weakened away quite quickly once its chance had gone )

3. FIRST MOHICAN ( Should be different class as he was the proverbial ton better than these on the flat and his rating of 129 could be 20 short if he can perform with any credit ) - Had every chance and was running well until it fell at the last....unlucky and will follow.
4. OUTRATH ( Should be compensation for the Shrewdies that lost heavily with this lto ) - Non Runner

5  Finally watch out for the rides and riding of Mr H AA Bannister as he has a good book , tall reputation and  could be a star.......Only two rides today with a UNP and a 3rd @ 8/1.

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