Sunday, 29 December 2013

A bit of a Lull >>

Yes the hoo hah and excitement for Xmas is wearing off or wearing thin , we have all drunk , eaten and partied too much and now will be feeling a bit bloated and sick and ready for some good ol fashioned rest and the week that separates Xmas from New Year is a good time to wind down for a few days before the big plans for the New Year all kick off.
As you should know by now i will for the remainder of the NH season just be focusing on the Juvenile/Maiden Hurdles ( plus group 1's and selected " special " race days ) and today will see the start of the conversion.

We have a few to look at today but time is not on my side  (  as it rarely is these days ) so i will just shout a few out i like and will be looking to back or trade....**Well this is what remains of yesterdays post (  Saturday ) as i did indeed run foul on time and had to abandon any post in mind however today i do have 5 mins and with just one Juvenile hurdle to look at its gonna be nice n simple..

Racecard

#FormHorseAWgtTrainerJockeyORNapsOdds
15 310-12Miss V WilliamsL Treadwell
2 310-12D SkeltonHarry Skelton
1
33 310-12M D I UsherD Crosse
434 310-12 t1Mrs P RobesonP J Brennan112
52 310-12M TodhunterD F O'Regan
1
6R36 310-12T D WalfordJake Greenall (3)
7 310-12A C WhillansJ E Moore
8 310-12George BakerA Tinkler
95 310-12Noel QuinlanJack Quinlan (3)

Race History


This is a very low grade race both in general and for Doncaster , Morning With Ivan is the obvious selection and rightly so carries favoritism however i feel that we can take this on here NOT laying it as the current price 3.20 is too high for a lay with its chance being lower ( implied odds variance ) but we can look at backing or dutching others.
The interesting runner here for me and todays " TIP " is SUPER COOKIE  currently showing at 22.0 ( 21/1 )  but only 10/1 with Hills , Bet 365 and Skybet ( as i type all the 20's have been snapped and is now 16/1 ) this is a very good EW ( Each Way ) bet at the current odds or higher ( i will be taking bits at current and at BFSP ) .
Reason : well if watch its last race behind Triumph Hurdle candidate Rutherglen you will see that this traveled very sweetly all the way round in a tight field being carried wide at every bend and travelling 6 deep round the final and approaching the last hurdle looked to be tanking such was its action but just before the 1f run in at Wetherby she..well i wouldnt say emptied but just failed to quicken with the leading quartet and was soon 5L down as she failed to find the extra gear required and once they had gone she was virtually strideless and cantered home in 5th tired and weary which was a shame for this 33/1 shot as she had run very well and with the front three all being very useful i think this is fairly decent form given the make up of its current challenge , now backing this you are hoping that it was just a fitness issue as this horse def has ability , jumps quickly and efficiently and stays 1m7f very well..we just need her to find that extra 1f of stamina and its game on and racing on similar ground conditions i am hopeful this daughter of Dylan Thomas can at least make the frame with a win being a bonus at the very least for the traders i would be shocked if this didnt trade a lot shorter for some " green up " action , last time out ( first time over the sticks ) it went off at a crazy 76.50 and hit a very nice 8.0 in the run ( IR )  giving backers plenty of opportunity to cash out for a tasty profit and although it wont hit those heady heights today i would expect it to trade at half bfsp or lower...( While i type again someone has put a lay in at 26/1 which i have taken..thank you stranger )....Fingers Crossed this filly can stay the extra a bit better today in what looks a very open race.

RESULT : Absolute SHIT from me , this did nothing , and was cooked fully 4F from home and i will now say this just is not a stayer and tbh i cant see it winning anything racing like that....Fav was easily beaten so at least that was worth a LAY...
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