Thursday, 26 December 2013

Happy Boxing Day > ;)

                             

Morning All ,

                   Hope you all had a great Xmas knees up , i for one had one of the most chilled out Xmas's in a long time , 4 days of beer and food and yesterday i thought for a few moments i was actually going to explode !!...well thats break time over for me as we hit the GeeGees big time with a rather huge smorgasbord of Festive racing taking place with imo the highlight being the King George at Kempton and it is Kempton that i shall be covering today although i will be following 4 other meetings this will be my main focal point.

                                KEMPTON > 

RACE 1 : 
A fairly straight forward race in the first which rests between two improvers in DUBAI PRINCE and VANITEUX both of whom won well lto although Vaniteux has the better form by profile Dubai Prince won without coming off the bridle so i think it is an impossible task trying to split these and at 3.1++ the prices allow for a very tasty Dutch ( Win )  and i think this should be smashed to bits as i had these two down yesterday at 2.08 / 2.42 so imo i am getting fully 1 point higher and this becomes a super value bet..Lump On !! .

RESULT : VANITEUX was racing like the winner, racing hard but in a good swing and was about to take the lead as the approached the last when it sank to its knees following a very poor final jump which cost it all and any chance  running in 4th ...i feel i was unlucky here , Dubai Prince went out like a light after swinging on the bit 2 out.....Lump On..Lump off...need a result now...

RACE 2 : 
A Hcap Chase up Next and these are always tough races to select from and this looks as competitive as ever.
I have to be completely honest here and say i just have no real idea or thoughts on this race as you could throw a blanket over all of them but i will say this , ERICHT has improved greatly both in fitness and general condition from his first run and will improve for that experience and is expected to run a big race ( although that rather flippant comment could again be applied to most if not all , and is not much help as an observation when trying to garner info ).
Both Loose Chips and Urbain de Sivola have positives coming into this race as the former will appreciate the slightly easier going and shorter trip and the latter was beaten when hampered over the last and the run in lto but still only went down 1L and will improve greatly and i will take these three against the field however..the BET for me here is a LAY on Western Warhorse with 50% of my stake at bfsp and 50% at half the odds in running as i think this will once again try to make all but on both runs this season has found little at the business end and although it may well set a searching gallop i can see this getting picked off by one or two strong finishing types from before the last and the current odds of 5.4 make this a stand out LAY and is probably my LOTD all things considered.

RESULT : WESTERN WARHORSE was WD before orders after bolting so ive gone with a 3 way Dutch on those noted. >> BooM as LOOSE CHIPS WINS @ 7.31 for a nice payout ;-).. ( Only just mind )...

RACE 3 :
Next up is a Novice Chase and tbh a rather disappointingly low turn out for such a good prize ( This is the Grade 1 Feltham £60k+ ).
We have 5 runners all of similar ability and rated to run close to one and other and is another which provides little in the way of clues as to the winner.
JUST A PAR on form is probably the class act here although its my opinion he has beat little to date including lto when beating the disappointing Third Intention by 14L but 1.66 is a complete fucking Piss Take and i will LAY this all day and night at that price ( personally i will be trading out as it will def go higher in the run ) , Green Flag is a very good jumper and a battle hardened stayer that will love any easing in ground conditions and the remainder although slightly outclassed are all good enough to make a race of this if not winning and i would rather be laying the fav than backing.

RESULT : JUST A PAR - UNPLACED = BoooM ;-)

RACE 4 : 
The CHRISTMAS HURDLE and possibly the clash of the year as two progressive gargantuan s lock horns ( forget the field ) in THE NEW ONE and My Tent or Yours .

It is my Opinion the THE NEW ONE is the better of these based on current form , past form , racing style and conditions.
Last time out MTOY ( My Tent or Yours ) ran the gutsy but classless Cockney Sparrow to bits when beating him after a bit of a battle into the run in and every horse in this race ran lower than bfsp with most chopped in half and Mtoy hitting 1.96 in the run as nothing ever looked certain now compared to TNO ( The New One ) who himself had a tussle up the run in but this was against a far superior beast in Zarkander  ( he hit 2.92 lto when it appeared to have thrown the race away ) the form of these two races is not worthy of comparison as TNO's is much the better and shown a far better attitude in its racing and i still have early memories of Mtoy throwing races away or giving up when approached for a protracted battle and all these signs lead me to think that TNO is the real deal and will be winning today ..although with both being over 2.0 this if you a bank big enough is worth throwing ( The Dutch ) every single penny you can find on as i find it inconceivable that one of these will not win , i will be emptying my bank and every wallet i can find on this although i will have TNO in a single and double.

RESULT : THE NEW ONE - 2nd ( matched @ 1.06 after another last fence blunder and a loss of the riders irons cost it its chance , brilliant race but the best horse Lost IMO )  -  But i did SMASH the dutch for an easy profit so no loss for me as i also traded my single at 1.12 ).


And thats your lot for today , have a GREAT day , continue to enjoy the festive season , drink well , play well and Good Luck...ttfn x.

...........*UPDATE*............I have been asked to cover todays big race the KING GEORGE as well so here are my thoughts on the race , 

KING GEORGE V1 Chase ( Race 5 )
..This looks a fiercely competitive race as the betting suggests ( 5.0 the field ) and many come into this with a chance , looking to improve or wanting to dominate.
The first thing to say and the first horse to mention has to be LONG RUN @ 12/1 is a given as an EW bet , grab some coin you can easily afford to lose , expect to lose it and chuck it on EW as this is the proverbial  " bet to nothing " , in his prime would win this and although still young relatively speaking has been on the downgrade for the last 2 years with no real explanation either given or available , it has had jumping issues in the past but seems to better now and has matured is an out n out stayer yet looked like he failed to stay a trip he has won on many times lto , has looked lethargic and unfit but is hard to get right and does take 3 runs to truly get in shape , so many old pluses , so many current negatives yet if he can recapture his old form he has every chance of winning and at the odds is well worth a few sheckles of anyones money.
FTW ??..well imo DYNASTE is the best improving chaser in the country barely out of nappies yet able to run classy and battle hardened vets' to the max and only defeated twice when 2nd in both the Jewson and the Lancaster and lto he looked all over the winner 2f out and still looked good 1f out but Cue Card ran very well to hold on for a rather brilliant win.
Dynaste tho imo has more of the much vaunted " scope " which basically means terms of improvement and will come on for that run and will strip fitter , staying isnt really an issue as hes done it all before and i expect this to be in the top three at the minimum and has every chance of the win.
Cue Card...yes the enigmatic and often brilliant Cue Card , housewives Favourite this frustrating at times sort has any amount of ability but chooses himself when to display this and i feel today will not be his day although i wouldnt be gasping if he won just mildy surprised.

SILVINACO CONTI on the other hand is as good a jumper as ive seen and is easily upto winning this , although comfortably beaten by Cue Card lto this is another that will be expected to strip fitter for the run and with a clear round should give them all something to think about however 3rd imo is the best for this as this former fav of mine has been surpassed in the ability stakes.

Silvi's ( ^^^ ) stable mate AL FEROF comes here as a long time fav of mine and a horse i have a lot of time for , packed with ability and class this could be the next Best Mate or Kauto Star...yes it does have that much class however it is still a raw novice and this is tougher than any race he has faced to date and at the current odds and with conditions against this is one i shall leave...just for today....

Riverside Theater i just dont like, yes it has bundles of ability but is so damn frustrating i wouldnt trust it to pull a milk float so will always swerve and wipe my eye if it wins...

Finally the big outsider if you like has to be MENORAH ( 22.0 ) a horse that has an absolute ton of ability , yes i know its form is dodgy at best but the horse itself is a truly gifted beat...just lazy as fuck with a poor attitude....if this horse ever decides to change its ways then it can give anything a race and at 22.0 or higher this is another worth considering for an EW bet.

Summary : Fap's on Menorah and Long Run with a WIN dutch on Dynaste and Al Ferof in what looks like a fascinating and wondrous race and a renewal that has the race goer salivating....ENJOY and GL x. 

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