Saturday, 14 December 2013

The Saturday Post

Well ive been up late as usual burning the midnight oil , race reviewing and back dating form lines , yesterday went well with the three races posted all returning a profit and im hopeful of something similar today.

Its day 2 of the International Meeting at Cheltenham and we have some cracking races lined up with some very decent sorts on show on ground that i quite untypically firm.

So i will move swiftly onto Cheltenham and summarize some of todays races..

CHELTENHAM 

RACE 1  - VICENZO MIO - WIN - Unplaced ( Not good enough , easily outpaced and beaten before the last )
A nice Triumph Hurdle Trial with a decent sized field with some decent form on offer and a lot of expectation.
Commissioned looks very interesting on paper having been a decent middle distance winner on the flat for Mark Johnston and this son of Authorized garnered a rating of 94 putting it on a decent level with the field but in all honesty it will have to find a very smart level of form fto to trouble the main protagonists.
Cadoudoff is a nice looking sort with a nice profile but was soundly thrashed by Royal Irish Hussar lto and it only looked average although RIH is a very smart prospect im sure Hendo will have his measure in the shape of Kentucky Hyden who himself may struggle to confirm any superiority over my idea of the winner which is VICENZO MIO another crack french runner for the stable which has done so well with these types including nailing the winner of this race twice in the last 3 years ( last four have all been French imports )  with his other runner being the superb Hinterland which ran 2nd so im pretty sure this will be cherry ripe for this.

WIN - VICENZO MIO -
EW - KENTUCKY HYDEN - 2nd @ 3.05
LONG - N/A -

RESULT ;
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RACE 2 - LE BEC - 
Next up is a small field Novice Chase , just the 4 runners turn up here and all closely matched.
Le Reve probably has the most to prove as it has failed to complete in 3 of its last 5 outings and will most likely struggle in this grade.
The most interesting aspect of this is that the remaining three runners met 28 days ago with Le Bec Winning ( 1f shorter ) but all three were pretty much flat out on the run in and with just a 3lb pull its tough to see the outcome being reversed although any errors during the round could easily kill your chance , with this i will say Le Bec wins again however this is far too tight as a betting medium to get involved although at 1.89 i would probably say the place lay on Sam Winner is probably the bet but even then its a tight call and Le Reve @ 21 is too big to Lay.
For small stakes i think the bet is a Place Lay and a Back Win on Sam Winner and the same bet on Le Bec ( 1.43 @ 3.1 ).

WIN - LE BEC - 2nd @ 2.88
EW - SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR - Unplaced
LONG - N/A -

RESULT ;
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RACE 3 - SHOOTERS WOOD ( HCE TIP EW ) - Unplaced ( Weakened away dramatically 2 out after looking very good )
This time we have a seriously tough and open looking 2m Hcap Chase and ANY of the 11 runners can win (  as shown by the selections in todays HCE comp in which 6 have chosen this race and ALL six chose something different ).
I will start off with my selection here (  and HCE cocmp Tip ) SHOOTERS WOOD now running just 6lb higher after Winning this race last year although tbf his form tailed of rather dramatically last term after coming up from 118 to 140 i think it all just got too much for him but now back fresh from the break he will have been primed for a run here and with the PN yard now finding some form it is my opinion that this represents a safe EW bet at decent odds ( 14.0 ).
BG has decided to ride the Fav Tanks for That a horse with definite ability but a dodgy attitude , a lazy jumper and no real guts and a horse i know for a fact Hendo just cant get a handle on...on pure ability it should win and its run in either the Paddy Power over CD or the run at Aintree would be good enough to get it involved but it just cannot be trusted and that alone is enough for me to swerve.
EASTLAKE is an interesting type from the powerful JP estate and this could be a good few pounds than its current rating and has to come here holding every chance and will be the stats EW selection.
As for a Longshot well anyone of around 6 or 7 could fill this spot but at 18.5 i think Parsnip Pete from the in form combo of George / Brennan is worth a go , it does have a few pounds to find and with no reason to expect it to be found makes this a risky bet but you have a good level of consistency on your side and a horse that jumps for fun.

WIN - SHOOTERS WOOD -
EW - EASTLAKE - 1st @ 6.60
LONG - PARSNIP PETE - 4th ( hit 1.70 IR )

RESULT ;
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RACE 4 - KINGS PALACE ( NAP ) - 1st @ 1.93
The final race im covering today is the Bristol Novices Hurdle ( Albert Bartlet )  a 7 runner affair over 3m and another very tight to call and im very simply just going to row in with KINGS PALACE here as this up n comer looks very smart and won with any amount in hand lto over a longer trip so stays all day , the form has been boosted as the runner up has since scooted up , the ground is ideal and this ticks every box.

WIN - KINGS PALACE - 1st @ 1.93
EW - POTTERS CROSS -
LONG - MILAN BOUND -

RESULT ;
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Time is a commodity which just cannot be bought and my clock is now empty..Adios Amigo and GL to all....x

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