Friday, 6 June 2014

DERBY DAY



Yes today is that day , the day of Englands Premier Group race and Nos 1 Classic.." The Derby " although in truth for me it has lost its luster in recent years as ive witnessed better races through the season like the Juddmonte , Eclipse  , those at Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood..and not forgetting the season finale that is Champions day....yes coming so early in the season means less anticipation and more perspiration as we use a guess or two to rifle our way through the card and the race itself.

None the less it is still a fascinating race and im sure the winner will go onto great things just like Ruler of the World and Pour Moi...err.hang on , wait a minute...they have done fuck all.....oh yeah i see now..ive just answered all my own questions......
So will there be a beacon of brilliance to light up the shadows that are now cast over this once brilliant race ?..Australia ?...will it stay...its a complete guess although one would expect it be a stayer being by Galileo out of Ouija Board ( Derby / Oaks Winners ) .....please pleas let us see something amazing to carry through the season....

EPSOM CARD >

RACE 1 > 
Cracking opening race in the shape of a 1m2f Hcap but a damn tricky one at that as most have a credible chance somewhere.
I must admit i will be " lemming betting " again as i am following Stars Over The Sea until it wins as its my belief that this has every chance of scoring a decent prize  , i just hope it does it before i am broke lol....
Popping back over to the real world GALIZZI looks an improver to follow having lto just failed to catch the runaway winner but was a good 10L clear of the third come the line and this Dansili colt could prove the answer , elsewhere we have AL BUSAYIR who likes to make all and given how well front runners do here if given enough rope he could easily hang this field... and finally you can look at BLACK SHADOW who is a gteed stayer that will love every yard of this having easily won over 1m3f lto and could easily track the front runner and pounce late on.

1. GALIZZI -
2. BLACK SHADOW - 2nd @ 10.00
3. AL BUSAYIR -

RESULT -

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (6)What About Carlo (FR)Eve Johnson Houghton39-2J Fortune9/1
Sweating, held up towards rear, steady headway on outside 2f out, edged left over 1f out, soon chasing leaders, ridden to lead inside final furlong, stayed on strongly to go clear final 110 yards opened 17/2
2nd (3)2Black ShadowMrs A J Perrett39-1T P Queally7/1
Took keen hold tracking leaders, headway on outside over 2f out, ridden in 2nd and every chance over 1f out, chased winner inside final furlong, one pace and well held, kept on for 2nd opened 13/2
3rd (5)nkHymenaios (IRE)Richard Hannon38-8R Hughes5/1f
Slowly into stride, held up in last trio, headway on outside edging left over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong, went 3rd last strides opened 17/2
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RACE 2 >
Next up is the Woodcote Stakes a sprint for the 2 yr olds and a pretty decent affair it looks too.
4 of the 9 strong field are lto Winners and i think it will pay to stick with these.
Firstly we have Lightning Stride ridden by " Frank " Spencer and this won well lto albeit over the minimum so this 6f trip will be new territory and how he is going to cope is anyones guess but if i can get a double figure price i will pay to find out.
Second one to mention is Ballymore Castle who is another 5f winner but this looks like it will def stay and could turn into a right ol speedball for team fahey and is another worth noting.
Thirdly we have Red Icon who won really well over this trip lto but that was on soft ground so if it stays firm or good we wont quite know how it will handle conditions but will have a chance regardless and if the rain comes and the ground softens then this would become a strong bet.
Finally we have my current idea of the winner in BAITHA ALGA a horse that won far more easily than it seemed over 6f at Chester lto having travelled real well throughout this was checked and switched then made a run to lead then just kinda won as it liked and this has an awful lot more to offer and with natural improvement it will take a very smart run to lower its colours.

1. BAITHA ALGA - ( NAP ) - 1st @ 3.0
2. BALLYMORE CASTLE - 2nd @ 4.50
3. RED ICON - 3rd @ 5.70

RESULT : 

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (1)Baitha Alga (IRE)Richard Hannon29-0L Dettori15/8f
Led 1f, tracked (clear) leader, closed inside final 2f, ridden to lead again over 1f out, ran on well £4000-£2000 £2000-£1000(x2) £1500-£750 £800-£400
2nd (8)2Ballymore Castle (IRE)R A Fahey29-0R L Moore10/3
Soon badly outpaced in rear, pushed along and struggling halfway, good headway on outside over 1f out, strong run inside final furlong, took 2nd final 100 yards, no chance of reaching winner opened 7/2 £1400-£400
3rd (9)¾Red Icon (IRE)Tom Dascombe29-0R Kingscote9/2
Held up in 6th and off the pace, ridden and headway on wide outside over 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, went well held 2nd inside final furlong, dropped to 3rd final 100 yards opened 11/2

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RACE 3 >
Now we move onto the days 2nd big race ..The Coronation Stakes a race over 1m4f which is usually rich in hardened warriors although the Fav seems to have had most run for the hills , the Fav being the enigmatic CIRRUS DES AIGLES a horse that 12 months ago we had all written off as over the hill and gunshot however he has returned with a bang Beating the mega TREVE fto then beating the excellent Olympic Glory now people may clamour and climb over themselves to back this at any price and at anything around Even money its looks an absolute gift...seriously i dont know how this can get beat ?...let me state this , When it beat Treve the field including Treve were either unfit or not good enough for the level and CDA runs very well fresh this is well known and when beating Olympic Glory it was A) Beating a horse that doesnt stay and B) A field that was mostly comprised of shit so the form isnt as strong as it looks at first glance so what if anything do we have to take it on with ??...Well Firstly we have FLINTSHIRE a horse with untapped Potential and a definite improver from the wily Andre Fabre yard a horse not rated far beneath CDA and one that could def give it something to think about.
Secondly we have...TALENT last years Oaks Winner ( makes her a CD winner ) who although never quite ran to that level after is well worth her place and any return to that level of form sees her bang there and finally we have Ambivelent who is not top class but isnt far away and is a horse that will thrive through weakness with the remainder seeming not good enough, too inconsistent or out of form...the problem im having is weighing it all up...as the only real bet here is either a Max BET or a Max LAY on CDA....arguments are solid for either and im not convinced that a decent enough price will be garnered for a LTB because if it looks like its going to win it will do nothing but shorten and will only go out once the writing is on the wall thus nullyifying profit potential and a BTL will harbour similar negative value...so what does one do ??...Well im convinced Fabre knows what is required to beat CDA and im sure he wouldnt have him running in this unless thought good enough....but wait ..whilst typing this im saying to myself " your talking yourself out of a good bet ".....my head states CDA cant be beat , my heart states CDA cant be beat , the stats and current form analysis state that CDA cant be beat but yet i still have this nagging doubt in my head that says LAY......ok ive decided....im gonna LAY it....fuck me...probably regret it but then i will keep stakes nominal and limit any loss and at evens it wont take much winning back...;-PPP)

1. CIRRUS DES AIGLES - 1st @ 1.98
2. FLINTSHIRE - 2nd @ 5.40
3. AMBIVELENT - 3rd @ 8.54

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (7)Cirrus Des Aigles (FR)Mme C Barbe89-0C Soumillon10/11f
Tracked leading trio, travelling well when angled out 3f out, went 2nd going well over 2f out, led over 1f out, soon edged left to rail, ridden inside final furlong, stayed on strongly, pulled up feelingly £1000-£1000(x7) £2000-£2000(x3) £4000-£4000
2nd (5)2FlintshireA Fabre49-0M Guyon4/1
Held up in toch in 5th, headway and angled out over 2f out, ridden and went 3rd inside final 2f, stayed on into 2nd 1f out, kept on same pace and no impression inside final furlong
3rd (6)Ambivalent (IRE)R Varian58-11 hAndrea Atzeni13/2
Ponied to start, led, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and headed over 1f out, soon unbalanced and slightly hampered approaching final furlong, lost 2nd 1f out, kept on same pace in 3rd opened 8/1

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Remainder including DERBY blog to follow tmrw AM....TTFN....

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Morning All , and here we are ready to continue the great card....
RACE 4 >
This is a sprint extraordinaire...." The Dash " 20 runners charging forward in a straight line 5f frenzy....carnage in racing parlance will ensue.
Sprinters by nature take it in turns to win and very rarely will you see you top class sprinters winning consecutive sprints  although they can rattle up a sequence in lower grade affairs but get a group of graded runners together and its all about very fine margins and for this reason im leaving all last time out winners out of the equation....which rather oddly takes just Steps out of the field lol....so where do we go ?...
I think Eton Rifles is better over further , Caspian Prince ( 1st @ 11.80 ) is very interesting as it won over CD a couple of runs back from an ideal draw in 15 and made all that day and again today he is blessed with another top draw in 14 but i have a big concern with him and that is that recent evidence has shown him to falter right at the death and ive a feeling he is just a bit too high in the weights against such quality and although he may run a good race i feel ultimately he will get collared and i will be looking to take this on in running at around 6/4 ( 2.50 ).
JUDGE N JURY has to be put into any dutch bets as this old favourite still has a few wins left in him and has shown recently he still retains plenty of ability and at 34/1 or bigger is well worth a few sheckles.
ELUSIVITY is another knocking on the door and its form that ties in with Top Boy is top class and carrying no weight into this gives it every chance.
New Forest is of interest although this is a tough race for a seasonal debut but the little maestro Oisin could easily draw a bit extra out although the 19.50 is a wee bit tight imo.
Tangerine Trees certainly has the back form and ability to get involved but even for a sprinter this one is nigh on impossible to catch right.
SEEKING MAGIC is one i really like, big field specialist with more form over 6 than 5f but is a multi winner so this is not a problem, not ground dependent , can race on or off the pace and not concerned over split fields my one concern is the strike rate...just 4 wins from 22 starts with 12 places giving a return of 16 faps from 22 races and although this is good it also shows a weakness to killing off a race...My final selection is another im very keen on and that is SWAN SONG another CD winner whose last run can be completely ignored as it missed the break completely and was never involved but is a horse with very definite ability after scoring at Epsom and Chester and with a recorded time of an incredible 54s this is a seriously quick beast so if its on a going day this has a very live chance.

1. SWAN SONG -
2. JUDGE N JURY -
3.SEEKING MAGIC - 2nd @ 8.20
4. ELUSIVITY -

RESULT : 

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (14)12 Caspian Prince (IRE)A W Carroll59-0 htA Kirby9/1
Prominent, led after 1f, ridden and narrowly headed over 1f out, rallied gamely to lead again 50 yards out, just held on, all out £4000-£400
2nd (17)hd10 Seeking MagicC G Cox69-2 htRyan Tate (5)7/1
Chased leaders, not clear run and switched left inside final furlong, strong run to take 2nd close home and pressed winner, just held opened 15/2 £5000-£600
3rd (12)nkAddictive Dream (IRE)D Nicholls79-5M Barzalona25/1
Chased leaders, challenged going well 2f out, led over 1f out, ridden and kept on inside final furlong, headed final 50 yards, lost 2nd close home opened 33/1 £3300-£100
4th (13)hdSteps (IRE)R Varian69-12 bK Fallon6/1f
Slowly into stride, held up towards rear, good headway near side over 1f out, not clearest of runs and squeezed through entering final furlong, strong run inside final furlong, finished well, almost snatched 3rd, not reach leaders opened 8/1 £5000-£600 £3250-£500
5th (15)½Swan SongA M Balding59-3David Probert10/1
Smartly away, led on rail 1f, chased leaders, edged left off rail from 2f out, kept on same pace inside final furlong
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RACE 5 >
Time for the BIG ONE...yes its DERBY time....and the weather is holding and the ground is staying on the quicker side of good.....hmmm....
Well we should start with the BIG BIG talking horse that is AUSTRALIA....yes it has run a couple of nice races with the latest a tough place in the Guineas but for a horse that has been touted as the best ive ever had this would have to be seen as a disappointment...but then Frankel was a brilliant 1m/1m2f horse but may not have been as effective over 1m4f and likewise anything less than 1m2f may not be his optimum so i dont think we can focus too much on the raw speed he showed that day and focus solely on his ability to handle the track/draw and will he stay....Yes he has a perfect draw, his stride suggests he should be fine round the track and on the cambers and he really ought to stay as he is by a Derby winner out of an Oaks winner so if Carlsberg did breeding...............
But this opened at 2.50 and is currently 2.90 after attracting ( on Betfair  ) over £600k of a total pool of £1,073,000 so is obviously well fancied but still a shortie to tackle , if this had run at 2 or won at 3 over 1m4f already then i think we would be looking at a 1/2F...but it hasnt and until it has proven itself i will be taking it on with those that have achieved more ( distance wise ) or just offer better value  ( actual odds not implied ) ..can it win...Yes...will i back it...No....will i lay it...well i have already at 2.5 and will again if it comes in.....
So what can we take it on with ??...well in truth after slating the race a bit in earlier posts ( thru general disappointment ) i have decided that this is actually a much stronger race than it first appeared and it has stepped up in my rankings as i have noted a few that could be potential stars.
KINGSTON HILL is obviously on my radar as one to follow and looks every bit a stayer but my concern is that this is ground dependent and may not show his best on quicker ground so this short riposte will be based around him having soft ground ( if its any quicker than proper good then it can be discounted ) , unbeaten as a juvenile after racking up three very impressive wins with the best being in the Racing Post Trophy this ran below par from a tough draw in the guineas but was staying on well and doing all its best work towards the end and will make into a fine stayer imo but there is still a good amount of guesswork to be considered here and as a 2nd Fav albeit 9.8 i think its just a bit short...at around 16/1 i would be more interested...again this is the balance between its actual adds  versus its Implied odds ( chance of winning versus Value )  in summary it has a solid chance in theory only....and i think there are better bets available.
Similar comments can be applied to TRUE STORY a horse i like very much and even more so after a scintillating victory in the Fielden Stakes but then was massively disappointing in the Dante forget the fact the form was franked by The Grey Gatsby ( went on to win the French Derby ) as i still dont think TGG is proper group class and the French Derby is a race that would rarely get a place at Ascot such is the very odd dirge of opposition, True Story's run was simply too bad to be true as it was being pushed along fully 4f out and i wont have it that this is the form to be believed and im convinced that this will be returning here with a much stronger run and this is backed up by rave reviews from the jockey Fallon who is an old hand around here.
And with a better run expected this time from TS i am expecting the form with Arod to be upheld and this is discounted although a run into a place for Arod is not entirely out of the question but at 22/1 its a no bet as it should be around 40/1 minimum imo.
WESTERN HYMN , FASCINATING ROCK , EBANORAN & ROMSDAL all  come into this with very similar profiles and chances and all are strong candidates.
I feel that Fascinating Rock will be the better over this extended trip ( Versus Ebanoran )  as it was always travelling the stronger , Romsdal will be better for the experience ( proven stayer as showed when just beaten a nose in the Chester Vase over the 1m4f trip )  although the fact Buick has opted for Western Hymn tells its own story and this could easily prove to be a threat to all unbeaten and classy this has a feel of Lammtarra about it and at 18/1 does imo offer some very good value and is well worth a bet.
Finally lets look at the " other " AoB runners as historically ist shown that they quite often do well with their unfancied or less fancied runners and jockey bookings often mean fuck all , First up we have Geoffrey Chaucer a horse although impeded in the closing stages in the Ebanoran race was in the end well held and i think his task is going to be uphill all the way to revers that form , then we have the wonderfully bred Kingfisher who has a live chance for a place at impressive odds and finally we have ORCHESTRA a horse that appeals to me greatly as it is the only horse to have raced and won over this trip so has shown it stays and it stays very well only beat Romsdal a Nose when they clashed but this very lightly raced sort ran green in the closing stages, swagged his head all over, nosed at the crowd and basically did everything wrong in the final 1f but still managed to win now he will improve and he will have learnt from that and this strapping son of Galileo will make them all go all the way to the line and 16/1 is a fair price for a horse that has imo achieved more than its illustrious stablemate.
One final note is dont under estimate Our Chanel at a huge 100/1 this is from one of my bloodlines to follow this campaign and this also won well lto and will improve for the experience and could run a big race at huge odds if things fall into place and others under achieve then you could be rewarded for your bravery .
Stat Notes : Its been 16 years since we have had a winner in double figures ( on the back of four on the trot ).
The most productive Draw range is 4 thru 9 which brings into play the following ,
Pinzolo , Impulsive Moment , Ebanoran , Geoffrey Chaucer , Red Galileo and Sudden Wonder.....some very big priced sorts there to consider for some fun Fapping.....

My  Personal Selections :

1. TRUE STORY
2. ORCHESTRA -
3. FASCINATING ROCK -

V

 My Ratings selections :

1. AUSTRALIA - 1st @ 2.50
2. WESTERN HYMN -
3. ORCHESTRA -

RESULT :
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And that rounds up the days action for me....Hope this helps , good luck and have fun...ttfn x.

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