Thursday, 19 June 2014

The Morning After....



Well with just the Two Winners ( first and Last races @ around 5/1  ) its fair to say Wednesday didnt hit the heights achieved on Tuesday..but in truth it wasnt expected although i was taken a back at how poorly Treve run ( apparently moving lame down to post ) and it was quite a poor show from Sky Lantern , now i know trainers often say " it will come on for the run " but the horse looked in shabby condition and tbh the fucking trainers are paid handosmely to get these cunts fighting fit and race ready for the day , if its not ready to race to win then DONT FUCKING RUN....it boils my piss when they trot this shit out , can you imagine the scene say in the EPL and Arsenal  ( insert any team ) just casually jog around because they are not really fit enough and need match practice and rather slovenly lose 7-0 and the manager does a press conference and states after , " well i knew we would struggle today as the side isnt quite fit yet and we will be better for this match "....there would be riots...quite simply imo any and every horse that gets gated for a race should be in A1 condition and ready to race to the fullest of their potential and if they are even 5% under this then they should get pulled as this leaves the paying punter at a huge disadvantage as we generally take everything on trust....Intergral reversed form yesterday as expected  , Mustajeeb and Anthem Alexander were both great winners yesterday and Mustajeeb pays yet another huge compliment to Kingman so what have we for today ?...Well its another tough days with a range of potential on show...no real card today just some " as we go " thoughts...

A pretty decent betting heat to start the day with the Norfolk Stakes and just the 9 runners and we have a red hot Fav here in the shape of THE GREAT WAR an absolute tank of a son by War Front and a great looker too , now im no fan of Irish racing or the way they issue ratings but this tank has won as it liked on both occasions and has never yet been off the bridle , lto ( both races have been over 5f ) the smallish field were all in full on sprint mode 2f out whilst this just cantered up ( was 1/9f ) and breezed by without the slightest movement , now both winning times and the splits were very average which leads me to believe that the opposition was very weak but the times can be upgraded as he was never at any time off the bridle so never had a race  so any improvement ( which is nigh on gteed ) could see a very smart performance and i do truly think that this could be a bit special , im not saying its a future classic winner as its untested over any significant distance but as a early season sprinter it looks the dogs bollocks but Even Money ( 2.0 ) is plenty short enough for a horse that has it to prove in this much stiffer test , i had this down at 6/4 ( 2.50 )  which i also figured was a fair price so it would seem to me the bookies are running a bit scared of this and going thru this a bit more i think they might have a point with the only obvious threats to come will be Mukhmal who lto won the Lily Agnes in fine style and Snap Shots who won really well and offered up some very good fractions with only the hanging towards the end and running green ruining the overall profile of the race but is way way over priced at 30/1 ( 5/1 fap ) and looks a very good alternative bet ( EW ) , but the reality is that The Great War should be winning this and afterwards AoB may well say " hes the best ive ever trained ".....

Next up its the Hampton Court Stakes and this is a strange test for 3 yr olds racing over the odd trip off 1m2f ( not a fan of this ) and quite a few will either be wanting further or will not stay if its well run , there is no real pattern in who wins price wise as the recent winners range at everything between 9/4 and 20/1...so take a punt...MUTTAKAYEF at 6.4 looks the best bet here for me ( EW ) beaten fto by Barley Mow but was hampered by that horse in the run in and after disappointing  ( 2nd ) in a Listed Event has gone on to win well at Sandown since and looks a typical mid season improver and will imo take all the beating , stays the trip well can run off the pace or with the pace , quickens and battles and i think this is a nice price as the other form horses are stepping up from Hcap company and could easily get found out.

Time for the Ribblesdale Stakes now and a decent looking renewal it appears too , WONDERSTRUCK @ 9/1 Looks a cracking EW bet in a field where most have to prove they stay , have the class or will not be bouncing after their last runs , this distance winner relished every last inch of the trip when asked to do so and stayed on really well to win a really useful looking maiden ( that included wonderhorse Hydrogen )  and this can improve enough to get involved and maybe win..another really nice bet imo.

Now its time for the Days big Race..the marathon 2m4f Ascot Gold Cup...and what an absolute beauty it looks with several big names lining up including our stable runner.
My Personal Bet here is an EW on TAC DE BOISTRON which is almost like the family pet to me and at 15/1 offers some fair value although i will be having some at BFSP as well in case it drifts , this is imo probably the best stayer in Europe upto 2m2f but has run to almost this trip before when just touched off by Altano in the Prix du Cadran ( has since easily beaten that horse a couple of times ) can race on just about any ground type and will thankfully have Martin Harley back in the plate after Atzeni cost me a fortune when leaving it too late at York and losing by a Neck when giving it too much to do in the straight, this simply has to get involved..regardless i will be cheering and hoping.....it wont be easy tho as Leading Light is a worthy Fav , this St Leger Winner looks a classy sort and if staying the trip well could end up being the best stayer in training but it has questions to answer and i think 2.2 ( Even Money ) is just fucking mental....not only my selection but it also has to beat Brown Panther , Altano , ESTIMATE ( Last years Winner ) and out of sorts Simenon...this will be a great race and a tough ask...Fav may win but there is much better value elsewhere.

The final two races today are pin sticker specials and..well ...if i want a bet in those i may just ask my old pal Richard Hurd what his shake n bet has come up with but in truth i dont think i will bother...

My Main Bets for today...

1. WIN ( NAP )  on THE GREAT WAR - Another stuffed AoB Fav although tbf this looks like it will make into a very decent 7f horse but it just had its legs taken away between 3-4f, Hopefully i can get a return on My EW Double/ Treble with Mutakayef & Wondersturck...

2. EW Trixie on ,
MUTAKAYEF  ( 2nd @ 9.40WONDERSTRUCK ( Unplaced but ran really well only just falling away in the final 1/2F ) and TAC DE BOISTRON ( Non - Runner )  three horses that can easily run well enough to place ( also fap treble on these ) and with some luck in running may win...a little bit speculative today but not total pony betting as i do feel the three have qualified cases and they are running on merit..so fingers crossed....
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Race Results in Full..

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (7)Baitha Alga (IRE)Richard Hannon29-1L Dettori8/1
Took keen hold, held up tracking leading trio, switched left inside final 2f, good headway near side soon after, ridden to lead over 1f out, came clear inside final furlong, ran on strongly £4000-£800(x2)
2nd (9)Mind Of Madness (IRE)D H Brown29-1R L Moore14/1
Steadied start, held up and off the pace in last trio, good headway near side over 1f out, ridden and kept on into 2nd inside furlong and kept on but never going pace of winner
3rd (4)Ahlan Emarati (IRE)P W Chapple-Hyam29-1J P Spencer25/1
Held up in rear, pushed along and outpaced halfway, headway over 1f out, not clear run and switched left inside final furlong, stayed on into 3rd close home, never going pace to reach leading duo
4th (5)¾Snap Shots (IRE)Tom Dascombe29-1R Kingscote16/1
Chased leader 1f, chased leading pair, went 2nd again halfway, ridden and every chance over 1f out, chased winner just over 1f out, well held when lost 2nd inside final furlong, no extra in 3rd close home £30000-£1800 £16000-£1000 £5000-£300
5th (1)2The Great War (USA)A P O'Brien29-1 t1J P O'Brien5/6f
Held up tracking leading quartet, pushed along 2f out, headway soon after, ridden to challenge and every chance when edged left over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong opened 10/11 £10000-£10000 £5000-£5000 £2000-£2000(x3) £3000-£3000 £1000-£1000(x7) £20000-£22000 £10000-£11000 £5000-£5500 £1000-£1100(x5) £8333-£10000 £2227-£3000 £1000-£1200 £2000-£2200(x2)
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