Tuesday, 17 June 2014

Royal ASCOT Day 2

Evening All ,
                   Well what can i say about the Tuesday ??....Fucking annoyed to fuck that i lost all my early scribbling but happy as Larry to hit 6 out 6 and see my NAP of the week hose up  in KINGMAN a horse i adore and think can honestly be as great as the mighty Frankel it is just utterly fantastic....and generally have everything else run as i had expected , thats the thing with group races on good ground with some form of difinitive form to work around i think the only chance i took was on Toronado but the reality was that a half fit Toronado would be better than any in the field fully fit...so was always worth a pop...the double come in , the monster treble i have waits on Treve and i hit some nice priced winners in my race dutches with the highlight being Domination at 19.0 that could be called the winner 3f out.....so we move onto weds and of course i wont be expecting to hit anywhere near the heights of today but i will still give it my best....

DAY 2

RACE 1
We start the day off with a race only the mentalists and unhinged will want to get involved in...." wheres me wallet ? "....23 runners barrel rolling over 7f splitting the narrow causeway in two as they charge thru and a race that is by no means short on class this is an absolute nightmare to unravel....only three places being paid is not good but the % will be higher..so although i am going to pick three against the field i feel a dutch fap may be the bet.
The first on my pin sticking list is REDBROOK twice a winner this term from 2 starts and last time was over the trip at Longchamp which is strong looking form on ground he will appreciate and with Frankie taking the reins it will be given every chance to shine and with this being ARD's only runner at the meeting they must fancy their chances and at around 14/1 it looks a decent enough EW bet.
The second runner to make the cut will be THAT IS THE SPIRIT for the red hot O'Meara / Tudhope team and this has won all 3 outings to date and all three this term with the latest the best when making all to beat Parbold rather cheekily ( insert lucky ) as Danny dropped his hands and eased right down coming to the line so without being pushed in any way it won and beat a decent enough yardstick and has to be respected and if given enough rope could easily play the hangman's role and again at around 15/1 offers marginal value.
Finally i think i will have MUSTAJEEB whose 7L pasting by Kingman is looking better each passing day , the drop in trip will suit , he will have come on for the run and Smullen is the man for the big occasion as he is very much in the mold of the magnificent Mick Kinane and this will give it a good go but offers little value at 7.4.
WIN - REDBROOK -
EW - THAT IS THE SPIRIT -
LONG - MUSTAJEEB( not a longshot i know but has to fill the berth ~) - 1st @ 5.60

RESULT :
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RACE 2 >
And life doesnt get any easier here as we move onto a race for the 2 yr olds..The Queen Mary Stakes over 5f and 22 runners are due to line up and make this a mental dash and is another for the needy and greedy only plus a few of us PP lunatics.
Its fair to say ive not been blown away by any home grown 2 yr olds thus far so the first on the list is from Royal Ascot winning trainer and Yankee doodle dandy Wesley Ward...the trainer of SPANISH PIPEDREAM , its also fair to say i know nothing of its current form and can only guess that this son of Scat Daddy is a bit tasty ( and not in a Tesco lasagne way )...Wesley Ward has won this race before ..in fact it was 2009 when he lasted tasted the sweet succulency of success and he will know what sort of animal it takes to win but at 3.7 and already looking to get smashed in more this offers zero value in such a tough race....at the price either your an american racing aficionado that has a great read on the race or your following other peoples money and wildly guessing to fuck....either way i cant have it on my list , no value , too short and no form for me to relate to...not unlike Hootenanny which won yesterday this had a strong Coolemoore connection that bought it into play...although still guessy but at around 8/1 offered enough value to include.
So where do we go....Dangerous Moonlite won its maiden over CD but in such a slow time i could have probably sneaked a place that day , HARRY'S DANCER however is another from the inform J J Quinn yard and ran a smashing race when winning over the trip fto and in a time that makes it very competitive and is one i like and with a bit of improvement expected this should be up there challenging and at 14/1 offers a good deal more value than the Fav ( should that get much lower becomes a big lay ) , CLOUDS REST also looks interesting albeit with some slowish times on the board this will need to step up again but coming from one of the " sires of the moment " it would be foolish to think there isnt more to come and at 22/1 its becoming an EW bet to nothing.
TIGGY WIGGY will prove a very tough nut to crack but could struggle to dominate in this field as he has mostly done to date, nice horse with potential but still more required and im not sure how much he has left in the locker but at 6/1 its marginal value to find out.
AL FAREEJ and ADULATION both at around the 50/1 mark offer tremendous value as both will improve and both have shown a great deal of potential and both are well bred and could easily improve 20lb from that initial run and at those odds ...well  you only have to place a few pennies down for a nice return...
So im gonna say for the third horse im gonna go with BLUE AEGEAN for the boys in blue , this won really well lto and looks a sharp early sort with speed to burn and with Buick steering will have a good tactical sit all the way through and at 22/1 offers great value.

WIN - SPANISH PIPEDREAM -
EW - BLUE AEGEAN -
LONG - HARRYS DANCER -

RESULT : 
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RACE 3 >
Now we move onto todays Big Race..the PRINCE OF WALES Stakes and all i am going to say here is TREVE ( nap ) , Arc Winner that was beaten ..just...by a race fit Cirrus de Aigles fto but make no mistake this Prix Vermeille and Prix Diane winner is the real deal..a proper superstar and will smash these to bits...no problemo...and i have this as the third leg in my monster treble  ( with Toronado and Kingman ) .

WIN - TREVE - ( NAP ) - only 3rd...very disappointing..;(

RESULT :
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RACE 4 >
This is a surprise...two races on the spin that are good for betting and are the right size to enjoy and get stuck into , this is the Duke of Cambridge Stakes over 1m for the oldies ( 4 + )  but not short on talent or ability.
First one to mention and my idea of the winner is SKY LANTERN a horse that has been mixing with the very best and with some success Winning the Guineas and the Coronation Stakes before getting dragged far and wide by Elusive Kate in the Falmouth Stakes and getting done into 2nd and getting no help from the stewards and again when 5th in the Nassau when she got bustled left right and center...before returning to the winners enclosure when winning the Sun Chariot Stakes and firmly putting naughty mare Elusive Kate inm her place and at 5.2 this looks astonishingly big.....if this was run 6 months ago she would be 6/4F...
Dangers ?..yeah there are a few namely ESOTERIQUE from France who won the Dahlia Stakes beating ( just held on ) Intergral ( far too short at 3.85 ) and Finally we can also have CERTIFY who will be a huge threat if back to form she had shown as a Juvenile...much to prove but not without ability...however if Sky Lantern turns up fit and with her A Game then she wins.

WIN - SKY LANTERN -
EW - ESOTERIQUE -
LONG - CERTIFY -

RESULT : 
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RACE 5 >
Abseil is clear at the head of the betting after picking up a competitive handicap at the Epsom Derby meeting. Lightly-raced and progressive, his chance is there for all to see but there may be better value on show, including RED AVENGER. Upsides with Abseil when badly hampered by the latter at Epsom, he's 5lb better off and should be thereabouts. Here Comes When beat Abseil at Chester last month but was raised 11lb for that success. Belgian Bill and Prince Of Johanne have won the last two renewals but both race off higher marks today. Artigiano should go well after a second at Nottingham but Chil The Kite has been upped 5lb for winning at Newbury and Sea Shanty is penalised for a narrow weekend win at Sandown. Richard Hughes still prefers the latter to Trumpet Major while Ayaar and the returning Short Squeeze are others to consider in a typically competitive renewal.

WIN - SEA SHANTY - 4th @ 17.10
EW - ABSEIL -
LONG - RED AVENGER -

RESULT - 
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RACE 6 >
A ridic bonkers finale.....Majeyda wasn't disgraced ahead of Lady Lara when sixth in the 1000 Guineas and drops in class. Queen Catrine also has her sights lowered having been well beaten in the French equivalent. The unbeaten Muteela made all at Newmarket last time but is there to be shot at by the likes of Psychometry and Coral Mist. Goodwood winner Wee Jean could also go well but a chance is taken on DUTCH COURAGE. The latter has to reverse latest running at York with Lady Lara but beat Adhwaa, Qawaasem and Midnite Angel to finish fourth and should be in the firing-line. Crowley's Law continues to progress but is upped a further 9lb for a win at Leicester while Aluminia has been making hay in much lower grade races on the all-weather and will find this tougher. Odisseia and Graceful Grit are overseas challengers worth noting.

WIN - MUTEELA - 1st @ 6.0
EW - FEEDYA -
LONG - DUTCH COURAGE -

RESULT :
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A very very tough day with only two stand out bets for me , NAP WIN - TREVE & NAP EW - SKY LANTERN...the rest are extremely speculative at best...GL TTFN X.


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