Fun N Games in the Land of Ire

Satdee Post Part Deux , 
                                      Its been well documented over the years of my distrust and hatred towards most Irish Racing however i they still manage to have some damn nice races at their wonderful if not corrupt tracks and today is there Guineas day so i will give my thoughts on how the day should pan out but beware all betting in Direland should be done with a pinch of salt.
BALLYDOYLE trained at Ballydoyle by the Irish Master Aiden O'Brien and today the charge is ridden by newly retained Ryan Moore should be the the dobermans undercarriage , this is a Full sister to the excellent Misty For Me who won the following....
At 2:
Won Moyglare Stud S. (IRE-G1,7fT), Prix Marcel Boussac (FR-G1,8fT)
2nd Debutante S. (IRE-G2,7fT)

At 3:
Won Irish 1000 Guineas S. (IRE-G1,8fT), Pretty Polly S. (IRE-G1,10fT)
3rd Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (USA-G1,11FT), Matron S. (IRE-G1,8fT)

Foaled April 9, 2008.
2010 Cartier Champion Two-Year-Old Filly in Europe.

2010 highweight two year old filly in France & Ireland....

So you would imagine that this should or could be very very useful indeed and add in she is also a Full sister to the talented yet frustrating Twirl 
1st: 2012 Hurry Harriet S (IRE-L,3yo+,1900m,Gowran Park)
2nd: 2012 Park Express S (IRE-G3,3yo+F&M,1600m,Curragh)
2nd: 2012 Musidora S (GB-G3,3yoF,2100m,York)
3rd: 2013 Blushing K.D. H (FG,1700mT) )

Then you have a clear idea of what to expect from such a grandiose family tree , By Galileo this is a true blue blood and in a market that has attracted £19k with £16k on this one would also assume the shrewdies and the market think likewise so on the balance of everything available im going to hope its a good as its breeding and as strong as the market and make this my nap ( Ballydoyle was a very poor 4th and thankfully i didnt back it in the end and instead Laid Dewdrop the 2nd string as its progeny have never done anything at 2 , but that was a shocker for an opening run from the fav.)

Marble Hill Stakes next and as you may be aware i will follow religiously anything by Zoffany who along with Libourne Lad will be imo this years Nos 1 bloodline and the AoB team have a smart looking prospect here in the shape of WASHINGTON Dc who is improving at a rate of knots but he will have to improve again to get the better of the two Bolger runners who both look equally useful , impressive looking race on paper.

Full Result

Pos	Dist	Horse	Trainer	Age	Weight	Jockey	SP
1st (2)		3 Round Two (IRE)	J S Bolger	2	9-3	K J Manning	15/8j
Soon chased leaders, went 2nd 2f out, soon ridden, led over 1f out, stayed on well final furlong
2nd (1)	2	7 Washington Dc (IRE)	A P O'Brien	2	9-3	R L Moore	15/8j
Towards rear on outer, headway into 5th on outer 2f out, soon ridden, went 2nd 1f out, kept on same pace in 2nd final furlong

Greenland Stakes neat and is a blast over 6f for these hardy veterans.SOLE POWER ( unplaced ) for me is the winner here , yes agreed it has a woeful record over 6f but a few of those races or attempts are open to discourse and it should be argued that whenever he has tackled 6f he has faced rivals of pure 6f sprint quality and today i dont think he is, he is facing some proven types with some nice looking cv's but nothing that he should fear and the field size is tight enough for him to get cover and lay up sweetly at the back and ready to turn the after burners on come the 1f pole and its my opinion that if he ever to win at 6f then today is the day.

The 4th race on todays card is the big one the Irish 2000 Guineas and it holds a super charged red hot Fav in the shape of Gleneagles ( 1st ) who at 1.40 is one of the shortest favs for this in many a year.
The fav as you may know is not a horse i like very much and won an ordinary Guineas in the UK in a time most decent Hcappers could achieve however such is the paucity of opposition that this animal is just impossible to oppose with only Ivawood the real danger as he was badly drawn lto and suffered in a slowing pack with no cover and much better could be expected today.

Next up is the Lanwades Stud Stakes for Fillies and this will be all about BROOCH and how good she may be ,this is another step up her training ladder but this should be well within her compass and should land this en route to bigger n better things.

In the 1630 BACK ON TOP could be thrown in here racing off just 86 the horse she beat lto by a comfortable length has since franked this form by winning a group 3 event and is now rated 108....which in non literal terms means that any improvement should be good enough for her top win as she theoretically has 10-20lb in hand...theoretically i may add but we will see just how good she is later.

The last race is dogshit so we will leave that to the mugs..good luck and enjoy your racing.

Morning all , lets look at Haydock today...

Well Hello there ;-),
                                 Feeling ropey this morning after a grueling 27 Holes were played yesterday at Howley Hall but what a beautiful course that is in fact i would say its one of the best tracks ive played in the UK certainly makes the top Ten overall and Top 5 outside of Championship Tracks , a delight to walk round ( need a buggy in truth ) picturesque and with some devilishly hard holes and compromising greens and i will certainly be going back...Thanks for that HGS.

Well there was obviously no racing for me yesterday and in truth there wont be much from me on a Saturday or Sunday in future unless there is something big happening as im taking these as days off but i will try n normally produce a card for Saturdays depending on time available thru the day.Today we have a very nice selection of races around the country with Haydock i think being the highlight and its Haydock that i will briefly browse thru giving you some thoughts of mine in regards to today's action and possibly steer you towards a winning bet or three.

So Haydock , The first race and it is a 1m4f Hcap with just 7 runners but a tight affair none the less.
Brotherley Company will have a great chance if it stays but has to prove it stays as i went out like a light lto so is on my list to follow but has to a bit to prove to be confirmed a future black type stayer.
For me i think the bet here is a straight forward Win Dutch on Hernandoshideaway and Fabricate @ 3.65 & 4.30 as i think these two on current form are a little better than the others but i will be very interested to view the run of Brotherley Company.

RESULT : 1st n 2nd and the RFC which paid over 12/1 ( Another one missed )

Full Result

Pos	Dist	Horse	Trainer	Age	Weight	Jockey	SP
1st (7)		3 Fabricate	M L W Bell	3	9-2	A Kirby	10/3
Held up in rear, headway on outside over 2f out, led over 1f out, ridden and kept on final furlong
2nd (1)	1¾	4 Hernandoshideaway	M Dods	3	9-0	Connor Beasley	3/1
Held up in touch, headway 2f out, ridden to chase winner entering final furlong, kept on, always held
3rd (3)	5	7 Brotherly Company (IRE)	R A Fahey	3	8-9	P Hanagan	7/1
Led, ridden and headed over 1f out, one pace final furlong, no impression with front pair

The next race is a 15 runner 2m Hcap which in truth interests me little so its with only the slightest of interest that i give analysis here.

Albert Bridge & Noble Silk are my two EW bets against the field.

Another Handicap is up next but this is a much better quality 3 yr old only 1m event with a decent field size and some very handy looking types about.
Mutarakez will take some beating in this based on its form shown after dominating a good looking field in the Esher Cup and a repeat of that run sees it win but was it a lifetime best or does it have more to offer?...for now i think its the winner but will dutch it with Moonlightnavigator as im quite keen on this long striding son of Henrythenavigator and i think this gutsy type could have them strung out as most of this field like to sit off a good pace and they will certainly get that today.

Result : 1st @ 2/1

The 1510 is the Cecil Frail Stakes over 6f and this is a very odd race to try and work out from a form and stats perspective with all the form all over the place .
There also seems to be imo a big divide in quality although the official bha rankings dont support this but i think a few of these are over rated due to races they have been in and not on what they have done.
I like DIVINE at around 9/1 as an EW bet as this is a sure fire improver and to a degree an unknown quantity and could be well in here with Gathering Power likely to show a better run as well this time.

And finally for the Blog at least today we have the Temple Stakes a brilliantly contested sprint over the years and this years again looks a strong renewal.
With so many exposed types i think a very solid play here is HOT STREAK ( NAP ) with Take Cover as cover.

Right gotta go so ttfn have fun n GL.


PS Notes : Barkston Ash will win again this season and is worth following EW now and stop when it does win and Navigate / Gold Will looks a decent Dutch to round the day off.

Not so Glorious Goodwood but its still Better than Ayr ;)

Morning All ,
Well yesterday could and should have been much better as i had both EW singles and an EW double on my two Naps with one coming 1st at 5.02 and the other unplaced but i wanted to have the unplaced runner replaced but went with my ratings instead of my head and Act your Shoe Size ran 2nd at 11/...so that was a shame but still a profitable day.

So we move into Thursday and although we have another run at Ayr available  ( a course in which i usually do well due to the consistency of the winning trainers and northern yards ) we will be looking at Goodwood today to see how we fare back down south as the flotilla of big yards look to flex there collective muscles.



We start the day off with a decent looking Maiden ( previous winners include Portamento and Trumpet Major both of whom were very smart ) with a few very nice sorts on show and one with some very decent form however i will be dutching the two Hannon runners as he likes to win this which has been shown with him winning it for three years in a row leading upto 2013 and i wouldn't pay any attention to jockey bookings in this and at 4.40 & 24.0 this looks a very decent Dutch in a race where anyone of these could win with a possible safety net covering the fav ( 3.65 ).

The next is a nice looking H'cap but that isnt imo as competitive as it first appears as God Willing has only its maiden win to date ( over this trip ) and after numerous efforts over 1m in which he has been found wanting at the business end has been dropped back to this 7f trip but this is not a track that will suit and im not convinced he will have the pace required for such an event and he may be one of those tripless types time will tell but not for me.
The bottom three are generally disappointing types and can be readily over looked even those looking at rags will struggle to muster any enthusiasm,Take a Note was raised 17lb early in its career and the following year was dropped 2lb only to muster huge improvement and was raised again another 14lb making it 31lb higher over a three year stint and although consistent and pretty decent its only at a certain level and for me this is a grade or even two too much and is easily dismissed for this.
Bertiewhittle has plenty of ability and a return to the form he showed at the back end of 2013 gives him a massive chance now back on a decent mark but his last three runs have been on the AW and its turf form of late has been less than inspiring and the current 12/1 doesn't interest me at all so is left alone on the basis of low value but if i can get any 20/1 before the off i will nibble at it EW.
So we are left with 3 runners on my hot list and its from this group that i believe the winner will emerge and they are ,

1. FIFTYSHADESOFGREY ( 3.65 ) - 1st @ 11/4
2. MR WIN ( 6.0 ) - 2nd @ 11/2
3. SAUCY MINX ( 11.0 )

and the RFC paid £16.70

and the three of these make imo for a very decent dutch with a split stakes dutch paying 1.70 ( against stake , ie: £200 split between the runners will return £165-£172 on each runner ).

The third race doesnt interest me in the slightest but if i was trackside then i would probably have an ew on Sebastian Beach.

Same really for the 4th race another Hcap in which i cant seem to garner any form of an angle as its so close across the board and none can be ruled out and a speculative punt on Red Rubles would be my call but this is a no bet in reality.
The 1625 is a Listed Fillies event and i like this as the field size and make up makes for a good betting heat.
Loaves n Fishes can be forgiven its first run this term as it blew the start and is obviously considered quite useful by the yard ( take a look at the HCE Sponsored Horse Racing Directory for further details ) however the form of its maiden win has been smashed to bits and is now less than worthless so this will be left alone until it actually show something.
I think Jellicle Ball can lay claim to the LOTD at 2.36 as its done nothing to warrant that price and Buick has left it to ride Miss Giler and with plenty of potential in this field this i feel can be very confidently laid.For me the winner could be LADY OF DUBAI ( 1st @ 7/4 ) at around 3.6 which isnt great value and wont attract a bet from unless it hits 4.4 as i would want to take this on as an EW bet and possibly double , Cumani is a past master at getting these types ready fto but is another with past form that has delivered very little and it will be hoped that the form of its lto win will hold up with improvement enough to make this a decent bet but wait for value.

The 1700 is a very tricky 3 yr old Maiden and a decent sized field makes for a very tough betting heat.Ralph Beckett is the master at training Fillies and all of his require a closer inspection and this race is no different with him training the Daughter of Galileo SYRDARYA ( 3rd @ 12/1 ) and at around 20/1 this looks a very attractive EW bet.
Lead a Merry Dance looks a solid bet in the Finale.

So Bet time...

NAP : The DUTCH Bet as illustrated - BooM as we hit 1st & 2nd = Win

EW NAP: LADY OF DUBAI ( If price matched ) - 1st @ 7/4
                           or
                MISS GILER -

LONGSHOT : SYRDARYA - 3rd @ 12/1

LOTD : JELLICLE BALL - 3rd @ 15/8f

Another pic of this years OAKS Winner.

I advised EVERYONE and anyone that would listen to back this for the OAKS at 5/1 after the Guineas and it was more or less pinned into 9/2 and until yesterday the last remaining 9/2 was taken down by Betway with most firms offering 4/1 at best but a lot including Ladcrooks ,  Titan and Boyle only offering a piss poor 3/1.....tut tut if you never got on but the 3/1 will look a gift come the day as this is as good a filly as ive seen since the wonderful Pebbles and i will be surprised if this doesn't sweep all before her and that includes taking on the boys and giving them a spanking...LEGATISSIMO this years Superstar.

Does anything ever happen on a Wednesday ?...Lets pick one from AYR ;)

Another quiet day with the Gee Geez as is quite the norm for a non festival Weds so i have decided to look thru Ayr as my main meeting and select a single NAP an EW selection im really keen and a Longshot worthy of a second glance....

NAP : FIRST SARGENT @ 10.50 ( EW Advised ) - Unplaced ( Knew i should have gone with my 2nd top rated ~ Act Your Shoe Size which was 2nd @ 11/1 )




EW NAP: HYDRANT @ 5.70 - 1st @ 5.02





LONGSHOT: LORD BUFFHEAD / RED CAPE ( EW DUTCH ) - Red Cape was 4th @ 33.18 ( Betfair place Market pays top 4 and sometimes 5 ) and Lord Buffhead wasnt far away in 6th...couple of decent runs for your money.










CLICK HERE to get 4/1 on ARSENAL to BEAT Sunderland tonight

Quiet ~ so one a day to form part of your 5 A DAY..

SECRET SPIRIT @ 5.1 ~ EW ~ MAX ~ EL LUMPO ~ 

2nd @ 5.12 ( Beaten by another from the red hot Fahey yard ) no damage done...;)

Friday and York Day 3 - Yorkshire Cup Day -

Evening All , 
                     Well that was a Thursday to forget when just about everything i touched turned to shit missed opportunities, low confidence and just a miserable run but then thats what this game is all about wonderful highs and miserable lows and you have to be able to deal with it all.
" If you cant deal with the Lows then you dont deserve the Highs " is the Punters play on the old Marilyn Monroe adage and its true so you just have to suck it up and move on...tmrw is a new day with a new dawn and anything can happen although i am quitting Laying animals for the time being and im just going to focus on making a profit as i have been hitting too many winners and this i feel has affected my mind set so best leave the lays for a bit.
Day 3 of the cracking Spring York Festival and it looks another humdinger and again its Fahey / O'Meara & Ryan ruling the show overall and these guys have to be followed when hot at these meetings especially O'Meara he could train any donkey to win a Derby right now.

So what have we on offer ,

Well RACE 1 sees us start the day with the 2 yr old 5f sprint the MARYGATE fillies Stakes ( Listed ) and this has been won at an average sp of 9/2 with the last 3 winners coming in at 5/1 , 7/4 and 20/1 so that alone tells you its an open affair.
White Bullet ( 3rd @ 11/1 ) is interesting from the Ryan yard and although 15/1 now if come say 1pm tmrw this has attracted decent support i would say follow as they usually run very well when supported.
......No time to finish this lol as im off to play Golf...Maybe back tmrw...who knows...Its the Weekend ;-)...
But heres a quick splash of runners to note :....

                       EMERHLDZ ( NON RUNNER )

ROMSDAL  4TH @ 5/2                                                 SPERRY 1st @ 7/2
                    
                                             JUNCART - Unplaced @ 10/3
   
           DUSKY QUEEN 1st @ 7/2
                                                                                        ROSENBAUM 5th @ 11/4

Good Luck and Enjoy your day whatever your doing!!..