Wednesday, 11 May 2011

Morning Fuckers....

Hope you all well today , got some great racing today ;-) , big york meeting is here with some potential stars on show.... first up is york..

This is my brief take on york today...

York 13:30
A very tight and competitive hcap to start the day off , Taqleed has had more people talking about it than Katie Price, shortie for the Lincoln with its fair to say some ok form , not outstanding , just ok , first run this year , apparently due to the ground..This for me is a MONSTER LAY.....but will look to trade in running as the price will jump about , in a field like this the top 3/4 in the betting will fluctuate the rest static...
As for a win bet or EW then..well its a tough call but i would probably W/P to 30/60 % RESURGE 24.0 and NORTHSIDE PRINCE 21.0 , though it must be pointed out that these are speculative only..small stakes advised.......


York 14:00
A nice small field Hcap which looks more like a stakes race , lets look at these 1 by 1...
1(3)silks10-3Shropshire (IRE) 2539-7B W HillsR Winston97nag meNap37/4
 For me this is THE class in the race , got a steady mark ( 97 ) but is too short in the market and offers no value as such it is scrubbed.

Invincible Ridge (IRE) 
Won 2 nice races over 6f last year , flopped fto over 8f this year....Jury is out , could be anything , may win win , may turn out to be a dog...with so many variables it wont be carrying any of my money.

Chiswick Bey (IRE) 
This for me is The LAY of the Race , not good enough here to bother the main protagonists and @ 4/1 is the type of horse /price combo i will gladly lay my trollies on MAX LAY...- well held 2nd -

Sonoran Sands (IRE) 
Dont like this non trying sort at all, wont lay at the price..although that said @ 4.6 offers as much value in PLACE LAYING as Chiswick Bay offers in the win market and its a toss up as to which is the better bet...whichever i can get the shorter price on i will take....( you can see im typing / staking thinking all at same time lol )...

Common Touch (IRE) 
Second string for Fahey and of no interest win or place could run into a place at best but of no interest, this beast is just a moderate hcapper at best.

This is THE VALUE call for me at @ 6.4 , Ran a great race lto after rearing in the stalls was full of running at the end and with a decent young jockey onboard i expect this to run a decent race, Back WIN/PLACE 40/60% but only to 80% of Lay stake,( Although SHROPSHIRE should be winning this tbh ).

Above i have done our first Dutch special of the day , this is a at way to have a free £100+ staked return for shropshire...
Massive Loss on this Dutch...;-(...otherwise all good really , Chiswick Bey was never winning but the stinker was the Fav...Ran Terribly, abs to avoid for sure, Ice Blast ran a tidy race running on at the end obviously needs at least 1m...will follow...

York 14:30
The MUSIDORA Stakes , always a good race and this year although a small field a tight one at that and as such i feel another dutch coming on ;-)..
My friend IAN thinks that Arizona Jewel is the outstanding lay in this race i disagree i think AMAZING BEAUTY is THE Lay in this , Barefoot Lady is tough to work out, won the Nell Gwyn , ran ok in the Guineas ,but this is another step up in trip...i dont like backing horses generally on a case made of what for me i feel this race will be between Joviality and Arizona Jewel....

This was much better, Firstly the Dutch was very good scooping back 50% of earlier losses ;-) , Joviality won which was nice, and both Lays were good although i think mine was the better lay as Ian's hit 1.52 in running and mine ran like the dog it is...but it must also be pointed out that Joviality,Barefoot Lady and Arizona Jewel ALL went ODDS ON in running ( 1.52 ,1.21 and 1.03 ) so was very tight at the end , think this was a good race. For us its Just a massive Win / Win ;-))

York 15:00
A typical trappy York sprint , looking at , well it looks a mare to figure out...stick a pin in maybe? , look harder and find the class , and for me the class in this race is DELEGATOR , could it be the new Dayjur?, class horse dropped into sprinting? ,hmm...a conundrum...
For me a small W/P ( 30/70% ) on Delegator is the bet , cover your stakes with a place lay on Hamish Mcgonagall...Hates 6f....Loves 5f......- 1st @ 5/1 - ( Hamish Mcgonnagall = Unplaced )

York 15:35
 Another impossible to fathom Hcap....However i do have a MAX LAY in this race..SATWA MOON...fill ur boots laying this..WILL NOT WIN....( famous last words ) - UNPLACED 6/1F -

York 16:10
 A very nice looking stakes race with a field of potential improvers , the Only horse to run 5f in under 1 minute is Ponty Acclaim and on that basis i shall be backing that W/P ( 40/60% ) AND max laying MONNOYER who is the slowest...( and i dont like noseda )..
- Result = Monnoyer was UNPLACED @ 2/1F and PONTY ACCLAIM was 3rd @ 8/1 so win /win..

York 16:45 
 To round the meeting off we have a very interesting Hcap....( running out of time )...Laying SUD PACIFIQUE!!..
- Result = Sud Pacifique 1st @ 4.2 ( never looked at race as was rushed , but gonna tick tock now as i traded in running )..hit 6.7 in running , also hit 1.08 before going out to 3.25 and back into 1.1 , then 1.9 , then 1.03.....So was ultimately a gr8 race to trade...However it is still a winning Lay and a losing bet..Hate Noseda....

Well i think all said and done, today has been a great success ;-)...Roll on Tmrw...

Good Luck.


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