Saturday, 28 May 2011

Todays card from..

NEWMARKET ( HQ )...

Quite a nice card with some nice albeit tricky maidens, but i like HQ  , the natural home of Horse Racing..

14-20
A nice 1m 3yr only Hcap to start proceedings , sweet , where a case can in some shape or form be made for pretty much the whole field!!!.
Now as you know by now i do like stats and times, i think times are very important , yes i know that some courses run faster / slower than others , yes i know difet surfaces make a difference  and in some case the trip is shorter / longer than advertised , but behind the scenes i generally do all this groundwork , but the core fact is a horse can run consistently  to within 1.5 secs every time then it gets an average , then if that is say 2 secs quicker than another horse has ever run  it would take a lazerous type of run to turn it around , therefore in my book fast is fastest.
But as always i look into Value as that also plays a big part of my evaluations and summaries , so many factors ( if your american , thats , FAK - TORS ) .... Moving on anyway  ( starting to ramble now )...
Now having watched the relevant races and judged the sectionals i have come to a very odd conclusion , in a field as tight as this i am plumping for a EW WIN bet on CLOUD ILLUSIONS @ 22/1 ( 5.3 place ) , a cracking price , this horse over C @ D has run the mile a whole 3 seconds quicker than any other horse , now if this was trained by say Hannon , Cumani , Varian Etc...it wolonly be around 7/2 - 11/2 ( at best ) is fit , loves the ground , trip and has the very tidy Eddie Ahern aboard , this for me represents a MAX Place bet , and nice win bet i think 30/70 % should suffice i really cannot see this being unplaced.
The LAY in this race for me is EKTIBAAS , a tad slow and with the unreliable R Hills aboard also represents a fair bit of PLACE LAY value.

RESULT- Ektibass 3rd ( lay bet wins ) , Cloud Illusions 5th ( EW bet Lost )
Summary - Falsely run race , cloud illusions was travelling superb and entering final furlong held every chance, but race turnt into a final furlong Sprint and he just couldnt pick up , however this is one worth following, if rntered into any GP 3's..lump on.


14-50
A small field Stakes Race now , again ANY could win , hence any selection here will be speculative at best.
In a race of this nature i will side with the proven trip/ground horses and the fastest of these is CAI SHEN 6/1 , it is tight and nothing is g'teed however this looks to have an outstanding chance here.
My LAY in this race will be the FAV NAQSHABBAN @ 2.44 , in a field as tight as this with a horse not gteed to like the trip its a gimme of a lay and a horse like this i would gladly lay all day and night.

RESULT - Cai Shen ( 4th ) , very odd race , small field split up with runners all over , hit 2.24 in running so traded well , but just got run out of it in the end..very odd....NAQSHABBAN was stone LAST.


15-25
Tight Hcap Sprint now , these type of races with these quality sprinters are a punters nightmare ( backers and layers ) , because due to the nature of these races invariably if this race was run ten times you could quite easily have ten different winners.
The Speed Ratings system have this between , Majestic Myles , Desert Law and L'ami Louis..My slight preference is for the latter as MM has run poorly since it last blitzed a field and DL hasn't run for nearly a year.
my LAY in this race is LEXIS HERO.

RESULT - 1st Majestic Myles 17.5 , 2nd Desert Law 5.1 and 3rd L'ami Louis 4.3 ( MY speed rating system picks up the first 3 , wd me ;-) )....The LAY of the race LEXI;S HERO was obv UNPLACED.

16-00
A shitty small field hcap now that has been decimated by the withdrawals , for me in this race i think the safest bet is a WIN bet in the PLACE market on HUYGENS , its fit and ready to race ( fav isnt and is dropping back in trip for its hcap debut ) and ran a tidy race fto.
The LAY in the race for me is def SHAVANSKY , how the fuck this is 2nd fav is beyond me??!!.

RESULT - 1st - HUYGENS 6.2 ( Place bet wins ) , Shavansky was 3rd  4.3fav ( LAY bet wins )

16-30
The first of a couple of tight maidens where you need to examine not just the horse / trainer combo but also what the connections expect re: future marks and entries ,RIO GRANDE @ 3.4 is a MAX LAY , a short priced Noseda runner in a maiden......come the fuck on , lay lay lay!!!!!
If you really must have a Back Bet in this race my advice is to PLACE DUTCH BACK the two zarooni horses PACIFIC ISLANDS and GENIUS STEP ).

RESULT - RIO GRANDE - UNPLACED and GENIUS STEP 3rd  2.38 ( WIN / WIN )

17-10
The second Maiden and a far less competitive affair , i would suggest the LAY here is MUSNAD with the inept M Hills onboard and the BACK ( EW ) bet is a W/P 20/80 % on DRESDEN.


RESULT = MUSNAD ( UNPLACED ) but Dresden ran like a complete dog avoid at all costs

17-45
A super tough end to the card with a marathon 1m6f race to deal with.
I am Laying Veiled , if i do decide to have a win bet it will be on OLD HUNDRED win and place ( ew ).
Result- VEILED WINS!! @ 9/2 to ruin an otherwise great day ,  ( tbh as it hit 12's in running i did trade my position )..but still lost a little there..but gr8 day, other cards were all profitable, so all round ;-)

Good Luck, enjoy your weekend....;-)))
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