Saturday, 14 May 2011

Sat and its Lockinge Day....

Morning all , Feeling better now my blogger is back up after being off the whole day yesterday!!...tbh i only had a so so day at York yesterday with the best bit of advice given was to back Thyskens Theory ( 1st @ 3.25 ) but    i did also state that i didnt think Duncan would stay ( even tho come race time i actually backed it and traded for a green in running )...so you dint miss much.
Todays main card is at Newbury which is holding the Lockinge Stakes and sees Dick Turpin and Canford Cliffs lock horns..Great race ensues....outside of that it looks  bloody tough card!!...( if anyone wants a specific race highlighting then ask )..
I may well look at some other races / meetings in brief detail if i have enough time...

Newbury 13:25
An awkward little maiden to start the day off but for me a simple betting premise , we have a 1.83 fav in a maiden..INSTA LAY!...always always lay odds on and short priced favs in maidens...it is always always the value call..
Yes the Fap may well win , yes you may lose a few quid , but doing this bet alone over a season would produce a very healthy return.
LAY FIORENTE....1st @ 1.8


Newbury 14:00 
A kinda almost semi stayers race next over 1m5f..odd distance , ive known some great 1m4f horses not get this and ive known 7f horses that have improved over it so yes a bit odd indeed.
The obvious place to start here is with AKMAL...could very well lead from the front, dictate the pace and then burn them off , however hes not the most reliable sort and i just dont have enough faith in him to back him.
There is no obvious class act in the field and all the runners are ronseal...i think the best value LAY is drunken sailor but it must be stressed that even i wouldnt go over board on this one ( sic ) lol...
- Result = DRUNKEN SAILOR 1ST.....Easy..Doof!!
Newbury 14:35 
A ridic tough sprint h'cap and one in which as much i try i really cant enthuse about . i have no real view on this race , No lays....if i was desperate to back something here then it would be addictive dream ew...but i'm not...Addictive Dream = 4th ( paying top 4 )


15:10
The London GOLD CUP , quite a decent albeit small turnout here.
Dominant does have some nice form and was very unlucky not to win lto, however in a small field race like this where in all honesty any one of the first five in the betting could win i would rather take evens the field and lay dominant @ 2.7 that for me is the value call , as you may have guessed with me its not always about knowing or thinking which horse really will win for me its about maximum value....and this is a solid value LAY.
On the back side....I think FULGAR is a good value punt @ 7.2+ worth a few sheckles ;-).
Dominant was DOMINATED And FULGAR was 3rd @ 8.2



Newbury 15:45 
JLT Lockinge Stakes (Group 1) (Str)
A cracking and fascinating renewal of this great 1m race where all eyes will be on CANFORD CLIFFS and DICK TURPIN.
SPEED RATINGS
_____________________________________
Canford Cliffs
1m 37.44s
1m 39.55s ( infront of Dick Turpin )
1m 37.64s
1m 36.35s ( 3rd behind Dick turpin and Makfi )
CityScape
1m 39.84s
 1m 39.44s
1m 44.02s
Dick Turpin
1m 41.92s
Twice Over
1m 40.s ( Lockinge 2009 )
1m 38.7s ( 2008 )
1m 38.54s
Shakespearean
1m 38.92s
Red Jazz
1m 39.76s (  Behind RPW in QE11 Stakes )
Premier Loco
1m 40.43s ( gp 2 )
 1m 36.58s
 1m 38.54s
1m 37.39s ( 2008 )

So as you can see from the above , Canford Cliffs is easily the most reliable yardstick and quickest , Premier Loco has some very interesting form but has failed quite often at the highest level but at 46.0 could prove very interesting as an EW bet. = 3rd
Canford Cliffs is Currently 1.88 and first time out i just think its too short , if i could have got 2.5+ i would have lumped on big style but odds on fto..not for me ( even if i do think its the best horse and will prolly win !! ).
IMVHO i think the PLACE ONLY bet on TWICE OVER @ 2.42 is a better bet than the 1.8 on CC to win plus i think the LAY on Dick Turpin @ 4.2 is a bunce...get stuck in.
Twice over is patently not a 1m horse = Unplaced , CANFORD CLIFFS 1ST = EASY..Dick Turpin = Last ( HATED THE GROUND )


16:20
A nice little fillies H'cap now...( you'll need the breather )..A field of 3 yr old improvers...Someone get me a needle and a haystack plz..there is a game i want to play!!
BIARAAFA EW is only a very very speculative selection in a race i wont be getting involved in.
= 3rd @ 9.2
16:55 
O Fucking great..a 20 runner maiden next..oh fucking joy!!....QUADRANT @ 3.75 MUST BE LAYED!!..it may win , although it has shown nothing to suggest it really can , a moderate 4th fto..big deal...This is a 20 runner race full of  " could be anythings "..lay the jolly!.
 = 1st @ 2.92 ( just )
17:30

Div 2 of the above maiden now..not as big and with an odds on Fap..@ 1.76 im LAYING this fav even if it is related to the great MIDDAY!!!...bah hum , bollocks tits and fanny...i will NEVER back odds on in a maiden..if you have and it wins..your still a mug!!
NON-RUNNER
______________________________________

Was gonna do a Card for Newmarket but run out of time....GL and have a very pleasant day ;-)


Overall , not a bad day, come out ahead ( which is the main thing ) could have been better..but still ok.

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