Friday, 20 May 2011

Back to some...

Decent Racing finally after a very average midweek ensemble , today for you i will be doing a card for HAYDOCK ( if anyone wants a different card or a breakdown of a specific race, then just ask )  , and the good news is that finally after a tough ol 3 weeks im finally back in full profit again!!!.,...been a slog and a grind ( miss me monster bets ), but after slowly chipping away i made it , now , as we know , the key is to stay there!! will be mainly chipping for next few weeks to build up a decent battle fund ( that said im also saving for a new car , my month in spain , new bathroom....) , then there are my lads driving lessons and he will want a car  ( eventually ) ...the list just never seems to stop , as soon as youve bought something or completed summit from the list summit else comes along to replace it.....thats life i guess.....i do think that in all honesty it will be sept before i can up my staking to a point where i can get back to realistically make £200 + a day scalping / i will just have to be patient...
Anyway on to Haydock...

Friday May 20 2011
Haydock Park
 A competitive hcap to start us off today , 1m2f+ with a field full of potential , some nice 2yr old form knocking about but not a great deal in the way of 3 yr old form.
Man of God won nicely over a mile at 2 and is having its first run this term , but @ 2.98 is plenty short enough and i cant back at that price however i cant lay either i would need 2.5 to lay or 3.35 to back so for know that is looked over .
I do like STANDOUT as an EW bet , its last 3 runs , lets look at them..
1.last time out over 1m4f..too far , didnt stay got stuffed....@ 9/2f
2.2nd beaten a nose over 7f..running on
3.2nd beaten a neck over 7f ...running on.....
This horse is primed for this, fit, will get this trip readily and both hannon/hughes in form and @ 16.5 represents some great value for EW backers.
Grumeti is a strange un , i do feel that all tho it does ( just ) get this trip that if there is a battle for the lead in the final furlong that it will get out battled, there may well be some value in having this as a BTL , take 4.7 - 5.2 ( fair price ) then look to tra out in steps  , i would suggest 3.7 1/2 stake then 2.5  and 1.5...

Analysis: No outstanding lay here and i just cant bring myself to back Man of God at its current price so i will be making all my plays on the in-running markets.
-Result = Standout ( 2nd ) , Grumeti ( 1st )

A nice maiden to get into here and we have an odds on fav , my ideology is to always always back odds on shots in maidens as you will always come out ahead in the long run , and i really dont like the jockey M Harley ( 3 ) very weak in a finish imo , so all that said i will be LAYING,  REPRESENT   ( 1.79 ) there are plenty of alternatives in this race and at false prices imo , if i was looking at EW alternatives i would be looking at VASSARIA ( 3rd ) or SWITCHER ( 1st ) ....but they are only tentative selections against the Fav.
i would rather have evens the field against 4/6 the fav any day!!...if it wins the damage is small ;-).

Analysis: Lay the Fap Fav.
Result = Fav ( unplaced )

A classified stakes race , which for me is a posh Hcap!!..
Imo only a few have any realistic chance of winning and the most likely winner should be REGAL APPROVAL, who is dropped markedly in grade and won at Epsom on the last occasion he competed at this level. Hughie Morrison's charge gets the vote.
That said i also like the look of Squires gate @ 14.5 and the Place LAY of NO POPPY ( 2.32 )

Analysis: The BET is the PLACE LAY of NO POPPY ( 2.32 ) and a in running win lay set at 4.5 ( wont win ) and Squires Gate BACK in the PLACE market @ 3.75.
Result = No Poppy = UNPLACED

 H'cap time again and a tight one at that , that said the FAV SERGEANT TROY simply has to be taken on @ 7/4 ( 2.88 ) , yes it won readily last time out , but it was in a crappy class 5 , against so opposition , and in a field with so much potential and obvious improver's i feel this def the value call.
TBH i have no idea where the winner will come from as they have questions to answer and have it all to show, so the lay of the fav is the bet for me.

Analysis: Lay the Fav.
Result = Fav 3rd

A very open maiden ( div 1 ) to contend with now with the horses that have previous have shown nothing to suggest they particularly good , so we'll look at horses from the bigger yards with better ( apparently ) breeding , the first up is MOMARIS ( R Varian )  who is by Dubai Destination and a half-brother to Sajjhaa, a Group 3 winner over this trip. He may just be a little further forward than some of the others.
 Varian's horses are usually quite forward and hes doing good in his first season , but there are ( as far as im concerned ) 3 others with equally solid claims..
1. Antarctic ( Gosden )
2. Daruband ( Zarooni )
3.Opera Box ( tregoning )
For me i think the least likely to get involved will be Opera Box ( place lay ) and i think Antarctic will be worth laying in running as 5.0 is too high in the risk / reward ratio structure so will look for 3.5 and happy to lay or leave and i cant have the Zarooni colt Daruband as Ajtebi rides and , well , hes a cunt!!
The Fahey Horse may well run a decent race but it will be a newcomer that wins this , which one? , for me MOMARIS.

 Analysis: Lay Antarctic in running and a BTL on Momaris.
Result = Momaris = 2nd ( BTL )  , Antarctic ( 1st )

Div 2 of the above Maiden and one where we have another odds on Fav in a maiden , R Varian's once raced MIIJHAR  8/13 ( 1.78 ) has to be layed  as is always the case in these races.
With at least 6 horses to give him a race this is a max lay for me.

Analysis: Lay the FAV.( i will be setting a trade off at 2.5 )
Result = Fav 1st ( hit 2.92 in running )

and finally at 17-30 its an apprentice race to end the day , the least said the better , if you really have too..Back the Fav...thats it.
( kettle on time for me tho tbh )...FAV WINS...

Enjoy and Good Luck.


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