Gonna have another brief run thru the card and see where that takes us....
*****************YORK**********************
York 13:30
A super tight Hcap to start the day off....the thing with these races is , that if all the same horses lined up and raced the same race every day for a week you would probably find a different result every day , the trick is nailing a horse with the perfect draw, winning form , likes the ground and has some current form ..and then just hope it gets a clear run and then cross your fingers...so you see , its easy ;-) .
There is no class in this race , they are what they are, all exposed h'cappers , Last Years Winner JOHANNES runs again today and @ 5.8f is the LAY of the race , but not a MAX , as although it did not win again last year it ran well enough fto this year to say " look im holding my form " and will be well primed for this , however with no tangible recent form and in a large field for me this is the bet.
If i was having a back bet ( which im not ) ....i would probably have an EW @ 17's on ANCIENT CROSS , as i feel today Gibbons will try and run there legs off , running well over further ( 7f last time ) and coming from off the pace ( not good at york ) today he will try and blast out for a make all ( proven stamina )...worth a dabble at 17.0.
- Result = ANCIENT CROSS 1ST @ 10/1 , JOHANNES = UNPLACED
**Did actually have a nibble at 17's...but only a small fun bet...Grr..should have lumped on lol...
York 14:00
Hmmm...this is a very nice renewal with MIDDAY running and i just cannot see anything to beat her , if shes fit , if she runs upto her own level of form...she wins...
The last time she had a break of more than 60 days she came out and won the Nassau Stakes so she can win fresh ( previously 2/3/2 ).
For me its a MAX BET @ 2.34 i think thats a nice price as without the break ( ie: only run a few weeks ago ) on her level of form i would probably make her 1/2 ( 1.5 ) , so im happy with the price.
The LAY in the Race has to be TIMEPIECE , not quite good enough at this level , a nice horse indeed but not an out and out group horse, so @ 6.6 this does represent a solid Lay , Not a max but i would be looking to cover my win stake + 20%.
That said if Midday fails what will win? , open affair , i would probably have a PLACE ONLY bet @ 3.5 on NOURIYA.
- MIDDAY 1ST @ 11/10 Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii ;-))))
York 14:30
THE DANTE!!....A small but very select Field , Technically its a 4 runner race as the two outsiders have absolutely no chance what so fucking ever....
So lets look at them...
Carlton House (USA) A Horse with massive potential , won an 18 runner maiden by 9 lengths ( beat todays rival YASEER ) , owned by the queen awith ryan moore in the plate could easily enough win, however today there are two other horse with proven form who im going for and so today i am swerving carlton house.
Seville (GER) Horses from the o'brien stable always merit attention on the big occasions and this beast is the same , however i have a niggling doubt about this getting the trip at pace as it was hard pushed last time over less and against a lot weaker opposition , for me this is the LAY in the race and @ 2.7 i feel that is a great price to lay at.
World Domination You may have noticed i have this in bold ;-) , i love this horse and after watching it destroy its field first time out i so so want this to win.
It led on the bit after 1m1f ( was 1m3f ) and won with the greatest of ease , it gets every bit of this trip ( and will get a lot further ) and imo you wont get many opps to BACK this at 3.8..so im lumping on MAX BET
Yaseer (IRE) The last of the quintet ( that matter ) , i really cant see this troubling the other 3.
You could always dutch the top 3 for a gteed return of 10% on youir stake...better than the bank...and trust me this is nailed on!.
Result = 1st Carlton House @ 11/4
So Lost my Max bet but Won on my Lay ( also won on the Dutch bet ) so did ok , but WD was very disappointing, pulled far too hard and ran imo very green...will still come on , CH was a nice winner and is a very useful horse , but still pulled a bit ... interesting....
York 15:00
Another typically tough york Hcap.....sigh , these are brain busters , Last years winner Fareer goes again , but wont be winning , that said im not going to entertain laying him at 23.0 tho either..The likely Fav PINTURA has a great chance and as such is perfectly primed for this race but at 5.9 is too short to be backing and is too high a risk to lay....
The thing is for me here ST MORITZ won its last race over 1m in 1m37sec , the race was won last year in 1m36secs...so that is race winning form , the fav Pinturra won its last race over 1m in 1m49s and although the ground was sticky....still 12 secs is a long time in a race and at 9.2 , im lumping on W/P ( 40/60% ), It has everything going for it today.
- ST MORITZ 1ST @ 15/2 = Major Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii's ;-))
York 15:35
A tough little conditions race for 3 year olds , but a race with interest nonetheless , The odds on ( 1.85 ) fav NIGHT CARNATION ran and won over a flat 5f in 1m 007s , not a bad time, very respectable , however LORD AVON who has won over the minimum 5f on the polytrack and turf 4 times , in the following times,
1. 1m.034s
2.1m.041s
3.1m.044s
4.1m.006s ( last time out )
Its last timed run was quicker than the favs , this horse likes to front run or be with the pace and to top it off , LORD AVON is a ridic 50.0 on betfair ( 33/1 tissue )...that is insane!!!.
So although Night Carnation may well win ilike the win / place bet on Lord Avon.
Alternatively you could dutch these 3 for a free £1000 payday on lord avon...
Result = Night Carnation 1st @ 4/6f
A few things to take from the race is firstly the Dutch won again , secondly Lord Avon went to 25's in running ( easy trade , 25 point mark up ) and Night Carnation went from 1.6 > 3.55 in running..so easy trade off there.
York 16:10
Penultimate race for today and its a good ol' fashioned Yorkshire Maiden...Noor Zabeel was given an absolute arseholing first time out and @ 4.2 im quite happy to lay this , Again not a Max Lay , just a work a day trade lay.
If i was backing in this race i would probably be looking at the northern trainers and that said , EW on HADRIANS RULE @ 8.6 looks good.
- Noor Zabeel 1st @ 9/2
** Again i did state that this was another work a day Lay to trade....and my goodness did i , it hit 20's in running for quite a lot and what ever price you want downwards...easy trade**.
York 16:45
No getting out stakes race here im afraid , if your down at this point thats probably how its going to stay, with the final race of the day being a tough hcap..
A speculative last race punt on DESCARO @ 8.8 is the one for me , stays extreme distances , has de sousa onboard and is in form....that ticks all the boxes for a race of this nature..
-Descaro 4th ( paid top 4 ) so a bit of profit from the last...
Have a good day ;-).
All in all another quality day..very very happy ;-)
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