Friday, 24 August 2012

Good Morning Peeps .:-)

Firstly let me start by saying if any of you follow me at all on Twitter i have now cancelled/deactivated that account as it got hacked and i couldnt stop it , basically someone else was making posts and sending them as though it was me when patently it wasnt so rather frustratingly that has now gone and for now i have no plans to start a new one.
This week at York has been both disappointing and frustrating with some good winning bets made along side some poor Lay bets and a few that just didnt run to expectations but this is not an exact science and if i could get it right all the time i would be a gazillionaire!!.
Today we have Day 3 of the York festival which includes the Nunthorpe stakes among others on another tough looking day this is being ably backed up with a nice Newmarket card with some very interesting maiden races the sort of races i feed on ;-).
So lets start off today by looking at York...

YORK

RACE 1
BACK - EXPERT FIGHTER - UNP ( hit 1.52 from sp of 19.5 )
EW - JOHN BISCUIT - UNP ( Hit 11 from 21 )
OUTSIDER - WARLU WAY - UNP ( hit 23 from 65 )
*This is an ideal race for the Pinstickers as it is wide open and any number of horses could win , keep bets a minimum in this....this is tough.
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RACE 2

BACK - HEAVY METAL - 2nd @ 12.5 ( hit 1.16 )
EW - PEARL ACCLAIM -
OUTSIDER - ODOOJ -
*This is a tough looking Gimcrack puzzle to solve with so many having similar speed ratings and others likely to improve and i must admit to being slightly puzzled as to why Fahey has decide to run Euxton Hall here instead of Flyman which had previously beaten Odooj ( as he feels Euxton Hall may not be quite upto this level ) that is a puzzle in itself?.
Morawij appears to me to be the least likely of the favoured three to step up as i feel this still has a bit to find and will be left out of the equation along with Blaine who ran a respectable race fto but will have to improve by around 15lbs to get involved here.Lewisham is left out as i am not entertaining a maiden in this and Cay Verde which has looked a bit one paced towards the end of his races so that leaves just three left and in all honesty i cannot split their chances so have used the ratings system to place them in their slots.
*Blaine did improve and ran well to win off a slow pace.
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RACE 3

BACK - DUBAI PRINCE - 1st @ 5.54
EW - TAZAHUM ( EW NAP ) - 3rd @ 8.58 ( Betfair pay top 3 )
OUTSIDER - FURY -
*Fury ran way below what he can lto when well beaten by by Dubai Prince but on better ground and a return to normality i would expect the form to be reversed but DP did win very comfortably that day and patently didnt stay 1m4f lto so is given another chance back over his favoured trip whilst Tazahum could surprise all and looks laid out for this race after just going down by a length and half behind Green Destiny in last years renewal.
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RACE 4

BACK - ORTENSIA - 1st @ 4.64
EW - BATED BREATH -
OUTSIDER - SOLE POWER -
*Now we move onto the Nunthorpe and it doesnt get any easier with another typically ridic hard renewal , here is the list of horses i like or think will be involved ,
1.BATED BREATH -
This is the undoubted class in the race and is close to the top of the UK's sprinting tree on a good day is as good as anything around and simply cannot be left out of any equation ( other than E=Mc2 as that is not relevant ) and it showed with its run in the Temple Stakes that when it all clicks this can be lightning fast and should all things considered be making the frame.

2.SOLE POWER -
Lightning fast and with speed to burn coupled with ( for a sprinter ) a majestic amount of consistency this is a super sprinter and just looking at its last 5 races tells you how good placed in all won none but beaten sh hd / nk / nk / 1&3/4L and 1& 3/4L....This has broken track records and will make the winner of this race pull out all the stops im sure but could burn himself out...EW bet?..probably not win or unplaced in this i feel but its own consistency argues against my thoughts but i dont feel this will be winning today.

3.ORTENSIA -
This is just another typically brilliant OZ sprinter and i was really really impressed with the way it won the Gordons King George stakes lto in a very quick time after looking a bit weary out of the stalls it cruised thru the 2f-4f sections before steaming home ( http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/03-08-2012/goodwood/result/514910/gordons-king-george-stakes-group-2/video ) this one seriously impressive run and i think this could be the answer again today if the ground stays on the firmer side of good i think it will win if its softer after the rain then " Houston we have a problem ".

4.TIDDLIWINKS -
Another from our stable friend Guy Reed and this owes me nothing so i have no complaints but this is expected to run a big race and should it win it will not come as a surprise although my personal opinion is two folded in 1) i dont think its good enough and 2) i think its better over 6f+..so today i will be leaving this alone , but good luck Guy.

5.PEARL SECRET -
The ( not so much ) Unknown Quantity in the race  this 2 time CD winner has done everything asked of him and could be anything but in all honesty on both occasions it has run and won over CD its speed ratings and times would leave it unplaced against most of these and it will have to run the race of its career just to figure let alone win, personally i feel at this current time its a step to far and imo will be unplaced.

The remainder of the field are made up of old favourites and veteran campaigners and most will no doubt run big races but i simply cannot see past the big guns.
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RACE 5

BACK - WENTWORTH - 1st @ 2.55
EW - BRAVE COMMAND -
OUTSIDER - FORGING THE PATH -
*Fahey ( check Fahey tab ) has stated for the record that he thinks a great deal about Forging the Path and is one of the stable stars ( certainly for the future as this will be its first run ) and generally when he makes statements like that you should sit up and listen as just week he spoke in glowing terms of a couple and they won at 12/1 and 25/1 so dont let the price put you off even at 48.0 ( on Betfair ) this could be a very interesting runner today.
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RACE 6

BACK - BURNING BLAZE -
EW - MAJESTIC MOON - 4th ( Betfair paying top 4 ) @ 5.0
OUTSIDER - MITCHELL -
*Majestic Moon is Fahey's £25EW charity bet for today.
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And then a Few at NEWMARKET.....

RACE 1

BACK - N/A
EW - N/A
OUTSIDER - N/A
*NOT COVERING THIS RACE AS IT IS FOR HCE GOLD MEMBERS ONLY.
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RACE 2

BACK - MISSED CALL - Unp ( Missed the break , slow away , always working hard to stay pace, needs 1m2f min )
EW - FLAWLESS BEAUTY -
OUTSIDER - MUSIC CHART - 1st @ 11.4
*This is a stable runner ( IDK ) and is highly regarded , this cost £75,000 , is well bred but holds no future entries, Ian has suggested that this is a bit of a fishing exercise, could easily hose up ( showing up well at home ) or could be eased and put away...this will one to watch , work out and enjoy.
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RACE 3

BACK - HUNTING RIGHTS -
EW - QUINTILLIAN - 2nd @ 5.6
OUTSIDER - N/A -
*
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RACE 4

BACK - LAZARUS BELL ( NAP ) - 1st @ 2.10
EW -N/A -
OUTSIDER -N/A -
*
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RACE 5

BACK - HUFF AND PUFF - 3rd @ 14.10
EW - MARIAS CHOICE - 2nd @ 9.45 ( hit 1.10 )
OUTSIDER - CLASSIC PUNCH -
*Classic Punch is interesting here and is worth one more chance now racing at a mark 16lbs lower than when he won over CD last August.
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RACE 6

BACK - RAWAAFED -
EW - CAPACIOUS -
OUTSIDER - SPRING TONIC -
*
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RACE 7

BACK - AL WAJABA - 3rd @ 11.22 ( Betfair paying top 3 )
EW - MISSISSIPPI -
OUTSIDER -
*
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So we have a few placepots to consider alongside some interesting multis...just need to decide which way to play ;-)...Good Luck everyone.

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