Thursday, 2 August 2012

Happy Thursday Folks...

Well yesterday went a lot better although i still made the odd wrong decision sigh...but overall another good solid profit day with most of the calculated calls being on the money.
Today we have 12 Races day and night to aim at which should mean some good profits , i will highlight the ones from Goodwood and hopefully come up with a winner ( or winning bet ) or two from the 4 races.
News from yesterday : Frankel , yes i know i beat very little but Farhh is a quality beast with some rock solid form in group/listed races and that was flat out trying to chase Frankel a full 3f from home and Frankel had not twitched , it was cantering and made this look very very easy know i know the Cecil camp are thinking about the Moulin but please NO!!!!!...Juddmonte is the way to go , take on SNA , Nathaniel and the likes over 1m2f and then become the worlds greatest ever ;-) ( i would love to see this at the breeders cup , viewing figures would be smashed thru the roof )....but sadly i feel this will not happen.
The Fahey tab has been updated  and now its time to crack on..

GOODWOOD :

Audi Richmond Stakes (Group 2)6f

  • (2yo, 6f, Class 1, 8 runners)
.

Racecard

#FormHorseAWgtTrainerJockeyORNapsOdds
1(4)15329-0T D BarronJ P Spencer107 15/8
2(7)511629-0M R ChannonWilliam Buick103 9/2
3(8)141429-0R A FaheyP Hanagan93 14/1
4(3)2129-0R A FaheyT Hamilton 16/1
5(5)81120729-0M JohnstonJ Fanning95 9/1
6(2)519129-0R HannonR Hughes99 5/2
7(6)0129-0B J MeehanK Fallon75 18/1
8(1)53420429-0D ShawW A Carson101 16/1

Race History

.A tricky little race indeed , Richard Hannon has Won the last 4 renewals of this race and as such MASTER OF WAR will have been laid out for this and will be spot on although its far from being his top 2 yr old in fact i might struggle to make top 5 this point was highlighted / validated on just the last time it ran as it was the stable 2nd string with Dobbs riding after Hughes ( stable jockey ) had decided to ride Rhamnus and when it ran in the Coventry ( 9th ) it was the stables 3rd string !! behind Olympic Glory ( winner yesterday ) and Sir Prancealot ( ran v well since in France ) in fact in 4 runs Hughes has never ridden this and with so much compelling evidence i will have to be leaving this alone stat or no stat.
I dont fancy either of the Fahey Runners as i think they are about 15-20lb behind the best of these.
Top Boy is pissing in the wind and Heavy Metal from MJ is typical of the sort he seems to train , either runs brilliant or fails completely!  however on this occasion i feel it has quite a bit to find form wise ( and ability ) with the principals so can be discounted.
This leaves us with 3 to choose from ,
1. AHERN : A good looking son from Dutch Art that has run very good races in both the Norfolk Stakes and the July Cup and has met trouble in running in both , i really like this horse and feel it is a proper class animal , can travel off or up with the pace, can quicken and likes most ground types, surely a top 3 spot beckons.

2. CAY VERDE : This big son of Bahamian Bounty looked an out n out speedster after winning his two races but went off Fav for the Norfolk Stakes ( finished 3L behind Ahern ) and was readily put to the sword down the middle and after flying thru most of it eventually cried enough but today may see a change of tactic as there a couple of other front runners in here and this may be ridden with a lot more cover today , this should run a belter today and given the right ride has every chance.

3.SECRET SIGN : This inexperienced Gelding from Sakhees Secret has only had the two runs but won its maiden at Windsor lto in good fashion and with the form being franked several times the speed rating from that looks solid and B Meehan is the type to do well with these and it would be no surprise at all to see this run a huge race and find at least 20LB of improvement and at 24.0 is worth a 2nd look.

RESULT :
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GOODWOOD - 15:15 -
The Artemis cup...a tough race over 2m that has a quality feel about today and my thoughts are all geared around the " will he , wont he " saga surrounding SIMENON this won back to back races at Royal Ascot over 2m4f and 2m5f and looks a very good stayer indeed but 2 questions to answer , 1) Is he really upto this Class and 2) is he as good over this shorter trip?.....i would really love to see him muller these but in all honesty...i just cant see it , neither can i see Saddlers Rock being as effective over this shorter trip as that looks to me to need at least 2m4f and is far too short at 2.86so that will be getting laid by me.
I do however really like COLOUR VISION which Frankie is riding again after winning the last two races aboard and has some solid looking distance form , i will be very surprised if this doesnt make the frame.
I also think Chilberta King is overpriced at 55.0 as this has both Course and Distance winning form and is good ol battler and will surely make this a proper test and could well trade a fair bit shorter even if unplacing.
So for me it will be a dutch on Simenon/Colour Vision and a lay on Saddlers Rock with a small play/Trade on Chilberta King.

RESULT :

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GOODWOOD : 15:45 - ESTIMATE -

RESULT :
_____________________________________________________________________

GOODWOOD - 16:20 - GHANAIAN ( EW ) -

RESULT :

_____________________________________________________________________

So there we have it your 4 for the day and for a deece looking Lucky 15 i would say ,
1. AHERN -
2. COLOUR VISION -
3. ESTIMATE -
4. GHANAIAN -

Whatever you do , have a great day and good luck.

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