Tuesday, 21 August 2012

Morning/Afternoon all..

Well its a funny ol Tuesday after a quite spectacular Monday ( for winners at least ) and days like yesterday although great dont happen that often sadly enough as just about everything i did paid off and every race was pretty much run as i expected a very purple day indeed.
The thing is or rather a key component is staying true to your beliefs and staying true to your thoughts dont be swayed or tinker when its not working or running bad as this is a long game and one that consists of many peaks and troughs i have had some very bad days to equal out the very good days and thats how it is and for me its just about staying in front and making a solid profit every day even on the bad days and when you scoop big just enjoy the moment and get a treat or two but dont accept it as the norm because it most certainly isnt, that all said the " Focus " races have been incredibly good why? , tbh im not sure maybe that bit of extra time spent analysing and reading helps, that 5% extra concentration and reviewing? who knows but i dont feel im doing anything different to my work-a-day races but there is obv a trigger there somewhere? whatever it is i can only hope to continue in the same vein.
Today i will highlight some races and horses that interest me for differing reasons and i will highlight the " focus " race ( s ) , lets see what we have for today...

13:30 GOWRAN PARK - TWILIGHT ZONE -4th
This is AOB's 2nd string ( although that often means little ) and on breeding ( an area in which im both keen and strong ) i much prefer with this being a half brother to the very classy Thomas Chippendale ( a horse which did improve significantly for stepping up in trip but fto over should have won but was badle hampered ) and is currently 5.0 which i feel is a very good price as there doesnt appear to be anything else in the race that stands out , the Fav and stable companion Battle of Marengo ran quite an average race fto but is entitled to improve is likely to be in the mix but Dam wise they all look rather average and i feel people quite often just see Galileo and stop reading!, this is well worth taking on regardless at 2.44 aside from this you have Bunreacht and Flameseeker who both look more likely to make decent 3 yr olds than being precocious at 2, so for me with little to tackle i feel this at 5.0 is bang on the money for being a superb EW bet.

15:00 GOWRAN PARK - CHRYSANTHEMUM -unp
On what looks a very good days racing at GP this is probably the weakest of the days listed events as both Soon and Twirl have been bitterly disappointing this term chucking in absolute dog runs in between the odd excellent run and although either could win if on a going day neither can be trusted at all which also applies to Devotion ( all 3 AOB runners ) and the remainder look average or below group 3 so i think that a good break for Chrysanthemum which was probably needed as she ran very flat when 3rd in the Victor Mcalmont ( over C&D ) after 2 very tidy wins in Listed company will give her the edge.
When winning the Lodge Park Stakes she looked like a filly with a big future and a certain Class 1 winner  and i think today should be the day that she regains that winning thread at 3.65 she is currently just beneath the threshold ( 5.0 ) for an EW bet so i will wait to see how the market performs before making my final decision although if the price remains low i will probably make this a BTL ( 2.12 and 1.22 ) .

14:35 YARMOUTH - MIAKORA - 2nd @ 23.80
This is a dog dont get me wrong but in a race full of hounds at 1m.14 this sherbert has the quickest speed rating on offer and it was also achieved in its last race which was also over CD the overall profile for this race screams " leave me alone " but at 20.0 this looks a cracking EW bet as all the more favoured sorts would appear to need a good bit further trip wise to be seen at their best and in a very poor race that wont take much winning this seems quite an attractive bet.

16:05 YARMOUTH - ALDERMOOR -4th
This is not one that i have heavily analysed but has come from the Owner direct who states " this is a trappy little race but with Browns allowance we have a good chance " and with so many doubts concerning the others i feel at 8.8 this is worth an inclusion into the EW Multis at the minimum...

17:05 YARMOUTH - SIBERIAN BELLE - 1st @ 7.40
This is an oddity in that personally i dont think this has any chance whatsoever of winning but and its a big but...why would Fahey Travel 250+ Miles to Yarmouth with one horse in the last race for his stable app to ride with just about the days lowest prize money?? and at 7.6 i just dont know , i would feel better if i was getting 10-16 for this so may wait.....but there is something rankling me about this...it has plot written all over it...Hmm...

Hmmm Quite an un inspiring day tbh and Ireland looks to hold all the cards for the days best racing  so until this evening this will be it...good bets are thin on the ground today....
Maybe a nice little £2.50 EW Super Yankee with some singles...i would say at a pinch Twilight Zone and Chrysanthemum are the two that interest me the most and are the two that only just qualify as Focus selections...
So not the stellar day that we have been experiencing but still a healthy level stakes profit ;-)

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