HNY

A bit of a Lull >>

Yes the hoo hah and excitement for Xmas is wearing off or wearing thin , we have all drunk , eaten and partied too much and now will be feeling a bit bloated and sick and ready for some good ol fashioned rest and the week that separates Xmas from New Year is a good time to wind down for a few days before the big plans for the New Year all kick off.
As you should know by now i will for the remainder of the NH season just be focusing on the Juvenile/Maiden Hurdles ( plus group 1's and selected " special " race days ) and today will see the start of the conversion.

We have a few to look at today but time is not on my side  (  as it rarely is these days ) so i will just shout a few out i like and will be looking to back or trade....**Well this is what remains of yesterdays post (  Saturday ) as i did indeed run foul on time and had to abandon any post in mind however today i do have 5 mins and with just one Juvenile hurdle to look at its gonna be nice n simple..

Racecard

#	Form	Horse	A	Wgt	Trainer	Jockey	OR	Naps	Odds
1	5	Aminah 22	3	10-12	Miss V Williams	L Treadwell
2		Colleen Bawn (FR) 91	3	10-12	D Skelton	Harry Skelton		1
3	3	Haatefina 21	3	10-12	M D I Usher	D Crosse
4	34	Maypole Lass 22	3	10-12 t1	Mrs P Robeson	P J Brennan	112
5	2	Morning With Ivan (IRE) 25	3	10-12	M Todhunter	D F O'Regan		1
6	R36	Multilicious 39	3	10-12	T D Walford	Jake Greenall (3)
7		Pixie Cut (IRE) 23	3	10-12	A C Whillans	J E Moore
8		Red Four 60	3	10-12	George Baker	A Tinkler
9	5	Super Cookie 32	3	10-12	Noel Quinlan	Jack Quinlan (3)

Race History

This is a very low grade race both in general and for Doncaster , Morning With Ivan is the obvious selection and rightly so carries favoritism however i feel that we can take this on here NOT laying it as the current price 3.20 is too high for a lay with its chance being lower ( implied odds variance ) but we can look at backing or dutching others.
The interesting runner here for me and todays " TIP " is SUPER COOKIE  currently showing at 22.0 ( 21/1 )  but only 10/1 with Hills , Bet 365 and Skybet ( as i type all the 20's have been snapped and is now 16/1 ) this is a very good EW ( Each Way ) bet at the current odds or higher ( i will be taking bits at current and at BFSP ) .
Reason : well if watch its last race behind Triumph Hurdle candidate Rutherglen you will see that this traveled very sweetly all the way round in a tight field being carried wide at every bend and travelling 6 deep round the final and approaching the last hurdle looked to be tanking such was its action but just before the 1f run in at Wetherby she..well i wouldnt say emptied but just failed to quicken with the leading quartet and was soon 5L down as she failed to find the extra gear required and once they had gone she was virtually strideless and cantered home in 5th tired and weary which was a shame for this 33/1 shot as she had run very well and with the front three all being very useful i think this is fairly decent form given the make up of its current challenge , now backing this you are hoping that it was just a fitness issue as this horse def has ability , jumps quickly and efficiently and stays 1m7f very well..we just need her to find that extra 1f of stamina and its game on and racing on similar ground conditions i am hopeful this daughter of Dylan Thomas can at least make the frame with a win being a bonus at the very least for the traders i would be shocked if this didnt trade a lot shorter for some " green up " action , last time out ( first time over the sticks ) it went off at a crazy 76.50 and hit a very nice 8.0 in the run ( IR )  giving backers plenty of opportunity to cash out for a tasty profit and although it wont hit those heady heights today i would expect it to trade at half bfsp or lower...( While i type again someone has put a lay in at 26/1 which i have taken..thank you stranger )....Fingers Crossed this filly can stay the extra a bit better today in what looks a very open race.

RESULT : Absolute SHIT from me , this did nothing , and was cooked fully 4F from home and i will now say this just is not a stayer and tbh i cant see it winning anything racing like that....Fav was easily beaten so at least that was worth a LAY...
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Happy Boxing Day > ;)

                             

Morning All ,

                   Hope you all had a great Xmas knees up , i for one had one of the most chilled out Xmas's in a long time , 4 days of beer and food and yesterday i thought for a few moments i was actually going to explode !!...well thats break time over for me as we hit the GeeGees big time with a rather huge smorgasbord of Festive racing taking place with imo the highlight being the King George at Kempton and it is Kempton that i shall be covering today although i will be following 4 other meetings this will be my main focal point.

                                KEMPTON > 

RACE 1 : 
A fairly straight forward race in the first which rests between two improvers in DUBAI PRINCE and VANITEUX both of whom won well lto although Vaniteux has the better form by profile Dubai Prince won without coming off the bridle so i think it is an impossible task trying to split these and at 3.1++ the prices allow for a very tasty Dutch ( Win )  and i think this should be smashed to bits as i had these two down yesterday at 2.08 / 2.42 so imo i am getting fully 1 point higher and this becomes a super value bet..Lump On !! .

RESULT : VANITEUX was racing like the winner, racing hard but in a good swing and was about to take the lead as the approached the last when it sank to its knees following a very poor final jump which cost it all and any chance  running in 4th ...i feel i was unlucky here , Dubai Prince went out like a light after swinging on the bit 2 out.....Lump On..Lump off...need a result now...

RACE 2 : 
A Hcap Chase up Next and these are always tough races to select from and this looks as competitive as ever.
I have to be completely honest here and say i just have no real idea or thoughts on this race as you could throw a blanket over all of them but i will say this , ERICHT has improved greatly both in fitness and general condition from his first run and will improve for that experience and is expected to run a big race ( although that rather flippant comment could again be applied to most if not all , and is not much help as an observation when trying to garner info ).
Both Loose Chips and Urbain de Sivola have positives coming into this race as the former will appreciate the slightly easier going and shorter trip and the latter was beaten when hampered over the last and the run in lto but still only went down 1L and will improve greatly and i will take these three against the field however..the BET for me here is a LAY on Western Warhorse with 50% of my stake at bfsp and 50% at half the odds in running as i think this will once again try to make all but on both runs this season has found little at the business end and although it may well set a searching gallop i can see this getting picked off by one or two strong finishing types from before the last and the current odds of 5.4 make this a stand out LAY and is probably my LOTD all things considered.

RESULT : WESTERN WARHORSE was WD before orders after bolting so ive gone with a 3 way Dutch on those noted. >> BooM as LOOSE CHIPS WINS @ 7.31 for a nice payout ;-).. ( Only just mind )...

RACE 3 :
Next up is a Novice Chase and tbh a rather disappointingly low turn out for such a good prize ( This is the Grade 1 Feltham £60k+ ).
We have 5 runners all of similar ability and rated to run close to one and other and is another which provides little in the way of clues as to the winner.
JUST A PAR on form is probably the class act here although its my opinion he has beat little to date including lto when beating the disappointing Third Intention by 14L but 1.66 is a complete fucking Piss Take and i will LAY this all day and night at that price ( personally i will be trading out as it will def go higher in the run ) , Green Flag is a very good jumper and a battle hardened stayer that will love any easing in ground conditions and the remainder although slightly outclassed are all good enough to make a race of this if not winning and i would rather be laying the fav than backing.

RESULT : JUST A PAR - UNPLACED = BoooM ;-)

RACE 4 : 
The CHRISTMAS HURDLE and possibly the clash of the year as two progressive gargantuan s lock horns ( forget the field ) in THE NEW ONE and My Tent or Yours .

It is my Opinion the THE NEW ONE is the better of these based on current form , past form , racing style and conditions.
Last time out MTOY ( My Tent or Yours ) ran the gutsy but classless Cockney Sparrow to bits when beating him after a bit of a battle into the run in and every horse in this race ran lower than bfsp with most chopped in half and Mtoy hitting 1.96 in the run as nothing ever looked certain now compared to TNO ( The New One ) who himself had a tussle up the run in but this was against a far superior beast in Zarkander  ( he hit 2.92 lto when it appeared to have thrown the race away ) the form of these two races is not worthy of comparison as TNO's is much the better and shown a far better attitude in its racing and i still have early memories of Mtoy throwing races away or giving up when approached for a protracted battle and all these signs lead me to think that TNO is the real deal and will be winning today ..although with both being over 2.0 this if you a bank big enough is worth throwing ( The Dutch ) every single penny you can find on as i find it inconceivable that one of these will not win , i will be emptying my bank and every wallet i can find on this although i will have TNO in a single and double.

RESULT : THE NEW ONE - 2nd ( matched @ 1.06 after another last fence blunder and a loss of the riders irons cost it its chance , brilliant race but the best horse Lost IMO )  -  But i did SMASH the dutch for an easy profit so no loss for me as i also traded my single at 1.12 ).


And thats your lot for today , have a GREAT day , continue to enjoy the festive season , drink well , play well and Good Luck...ttfn x.

...........*UPDATE*............I have been asked to cover todays big race the KING GEORGE as well so here are my thoughts on the race , 

KING GEORGE V1 Chase ( Race 5 )
..This looks a fiercely competitive race as the betting suggests ( 5.0 the field ) and many come into this with a chance , looking to improve or wanting to dominate.
The first thing to say and the first horse to mention has to be LONG RUN @ 12/1 is a given as an EW bet , grab some coin you can easily afford to lose , expect to lose it and chuck it on EW as this is the proverbial  " bet to nothing " , in his prime would win this and although still young relatively speaking has been on the downgrade for the last 2 years with no real explanation either given or available , it has had jumping issues in the past but seems to better now and has matured is an out n out stayer yet looked like he failed to stay a trip he has won on many times lto , has looked lethargic and unfit but is hard to get right and does take 3 runs to truly get in shape , so many old pluses , so many current negatives yet if he can recapture his old form he has every chance of winning and at the odds is well worth a few sheckles of anyones money.
FTW ??..well imo DYNASTE is the best improving chaser in the country barely out of nappies yet able to run classy and battle hardened vets' to the max and only defeated twice when 2nd in both the Jewson and the Lancaster and lto he looked all over the winner 2f out and still looked good 1f out but Cue Card ran very well to hold on for a rather brilliant win.
Dynaste tho imo has more of the much vaunted " scope " which basically means terms of improvement and will come on for that run and will strip fitter , staying isnt really an issue as hes done it all before and i expect this to be in the top three at the minimum and has every chance of the win.
Cue Card...yes the enigmatic and often brilliant Cue Card , housewives Favourite this frustrating at times sort has any amount of ability but chooses himself when to display this and i feel today will not be his day although i wouldnt be gasping if he won just mildy surprised.

SILVINACO CONTI on the other hand is as good a jumper as ive seen and is easily upto winning this , although comfortably beaten by Cue Card lto this is another that will be expected to strip fitter for the run and with a clear round should give them all something to think about however 3rd imo is the best for this as this former fav of mine has been surpassed in the ability stakes.

Silvi's ( ^^^ ) stable mate AL FEROF comes here as a long time fav of mine and a horse i have a lot of time for , packed with ability and class this could be the next Best Mate or Kauto Star...yes it does have that much class however it is still a raw novice and this is tougher than any race he has faced to date and at the current odds and with conditions against this is one i shall leave...just for today....

Riverside Theater i just dont like, yes it has bundles of ability but is so damn frustrating i wouldnt trust it to pull a milk float so will always swerve and wipe my eye if it wins...

Finally the big outsider if you like has to be MENORAH ( 22.0 ) a horse that has an absolute ton of ability , yes i know its form is dodgy at best but the horse itself is a truly gifted beat...just lazy as fuck with a poor attitude....if this horse ever decides to change its ways then it can give anything a race and at 22.0 or higher this is another worth considering for an EW bet.

Summary : Fap's on Menorah and Long Run with a WIN dutch on Dynaste and Al Ferof in what looks like a fascinating and wondrous race and a renewal that has the race goer salivating....ENJOY and GL x. 

Friday Post >

                                   
Morning blog readers, race fans and who ever else stumbles across me , i am posting today a card for ASCOT as i am out on the piss tonight , its what we  ( in the UK ) generally term Mad Friday > , its the day most people break from work for the Xmas holidays and we all go out and get proper lashed up ;-) .
Tonight im hitting the town firstly with me old mucker Nick Hardy and then im meeting up with my Golfing crew  ( WPGS ) for our Xmas drinky so i should imagine it will get messy , i will be shit faced tonight and very very hung over tmrw and its highly unlikely that i will be doing little unless it can be achieved from my bed , ive stocked up on Lucozade , paracetamol's are at the ready and the ingredients for a full English are all at hand so im prepared for feeling shit on Saturday now im just crossing my fingers and hoping the torrential rain and blizzard like cold wind stays the fuck away as that would put a dampner on proceedings.

Its been a funny old year in many ways with some great highs and frustrating lows , trialing new betting platforms and systems and altering PPL many times as we continued to stay in front with a degree of overall success mixed with some abject failure but we did enough to make a profit on both fronts although it was tough at times with August being the worst month of all which saw a few members fall by the wayside and then i had my own little max lay pot which was a shared bank that was being traded to its fullest on big priced lays for an easy return that hit 3 33/1 winners lol and wiped all that out ( good idea hit with bad luck ) but the core trading has been very good overall although i do feel i have tried to be too many things this year which has led to a downturn in overall performance , i did become a bit undisciplined and bet ( gambled ) more than i either like to or can afford to and i have chased a lot this year which is most unlike me but is something we all do to a degree.

The biggest plus this year has been the realization of the Client accounts and the " Bouncing " which has been tested, trialed , practiced , run out and honed to such a degree that i fully expect 2014 to be THE year that truly pays , time will tell of course but the signs are positive and with the right backing it should be a huge success with client accounts expected to return between 25 - 75% ROI PM next year i will start to live the dream.

On the " tipping " side its been a fairly consistent year with some odd results mixed in with some big BooMs but no big Multi hits this year but also a good deal less struck and for a 2nd time my Horse of the Year award goes to SPRINTER SACRE a horse that works the NH scene and is quite simply the Frankel of this sphere , i have never witnessed a horse travel so way and batter opposition like this does and this year i want it to face some quality fields and opposition to really test it , i want to see it battle up a straight, show some guts and get us out of our seats as its final run at Punchestown was a bit closer than some but i also felt it jumped lethargically that day and probably run about 25lb its level and although it won it wasnt a great run in any shape or form.

For the PRO bets this term i am sticking with Juvenile / Novice and Maiden Hurdles with the " odd " Group race thrown in so if you are thinking about getting involved in these then you really should get in touch.

So in summary , its been a Year of highs n Lows , mixed fortune , bad luck and the now getting tiresome non payments , with my biggest winning advertised Tip being 80/1 and my biggest winning double ( March ) was two winners @ 25/1 and 14/1 for a monster return mixed in with a day when i laid 6 consecutive winners that rather rubbed shit all over my face lol...so 2014 will become a far more streamlined business for me as i will be focusing 95% of my gaze towards the bouncing and client accounts and some front end trading to help me tick over and hopefully i can hit the odd multi en route for a pay day.

and the winner of " BAD LUCK 2013 " goes to this scenario i was involved in....12 runner Novice chase , front 3 are 12 L clear and fighting the finish , 2 fences to go ...they clear with ease , just a length between them and now 15L back to the 4th...which is trading at well what i thought was a low 25/1 so i laid it for £500 thinking i would pick up some easy money , at first only £16.47 got matched so i thought " ah well , better than a kick up the arse " as i drifted out to 120 + in a matter of eye blinks...then.....Fucking catastrophe as the front three all Fell ( 2 Fallers and one BD ) at the last fucking fence....and my horse went from 1000/1 to 1.01 in the blink of an eye.......£12k down the swanny as that was miles clear of the only other finisher......

The " Special Friend " Award goes to Jason Coote ( HCE ) for just simply being a great fella and a brilliant friend and always being there when ive needed him...you sir are a true Gent xx

So onto today...lets have a look at ASCOT and see if we can find a winner or two...

RACE 1 : BoooooooM - ROYAL BOY - 1st = Kerching!!..
This is a tricky race to start with and this does look quite hot on paper with several big yards in the mix , decent runners with strong form and a lot to look at.
ROYAL BOY has to be first on the list as its form behind Melodic Rendezvous is the strongest on offer and this son of Lavirco is the choice of Geraghty and given the profile of Hendo's other runner this must be a tip in itself although Medieval Chapel is itself a very interesting runner being a typical Frenchie he does so well with.
Macs Return and Taras Road both come into the reckoning on the back of runs to date showing promise but i feel the biggest Danger will be PLEASANT COMPANY a strapping son of Presenting that absolutely hacked up in its opening NHF race and looks a very smart prospect and one of Denmarks better animals as he has struggled with disappointing types over the last few years and this could be a breakthrough animal for him and finally dont forget Harry's Farewell being ridden by the excellent Nick Schofield who would no doubt love to get one over his new boss ....hmmm , nice race in prospect....

Summary : I feel at the current odds a level Return Dutch on Royal Boy / Pleasant Company is the call , the others can get involved and they may be able to cause an upset but i feel that the front two are a cut above currently and one of these should prevail today.
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RESULT :
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Full Result

Pos	Dist	Horse	Trainer	Age	Weight	Jockey	SP
1st		7 Royal Boy (FR)	N J Henderson	6	11-0	B J Geraghty	7/4f
Held up but in touch and always going well, smooth headway 6th, tracked leaders 4 out, went 2nd well before 2 out, upsides 2 out, led travelling well going to the last, soon clear, easily opened 6/4
2nd	6	1 Big Hands Harry	N J Henderson	4	11-0	A Tinkler	12/1
Took keen hold tracking leaders, lost place briefly and pushed along 7th, chased leaders 3 out, led well before 2 out, ridden and joined 2 out, headed going to the last, no chance with easy winner, kept on for clear 2nd opened 14/1
3rd	10	6 Pleasant Company (IRE)	D Pipe	5	11-0	T Scudamore	9/4
Led until 1st, led again before 3rd, ridden and headed well before 2 out, soon dropped to 3rd and no chance with leading duo, just held on for 3rd opened 11/4
4th	½	5 Medieval Chapel (FR)	N J Henderson	5	11-0	Nico de Boinville (5)	14/1
Took keen hold tracking leaders, pushed along after 7th, driven before 2 out, stayed on approaching last, ran on flat, almost snatched 3rd opened 16/1

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After having a mini panic in the Kitchen after the light exploded i have lost so much time with cleaning and repairing that this is all i can do for today , but i will be on FB and email until around 3pm...so ttfn , gl and have a great Xmas...see you back on BOXING DAY...
                                      

The Saturday Post

Well ive been up late as usual burning the midnight oil , race reviewing and back dating form lines , yesterday went well with the three races posted all returning a profit and im hopeful of something similar today.

Its day 2 of the International Meeting at Cheltenham and we have some cracking races lined up with some very decent sorts on show on ground that i quite untypically firm.

So i will move swiftly onto Cheltenham and summarize some of todays races..

CHELTENHAM 

RACE 1  - VICENZO MIO - WIN - Unplaced ( Not good enough , easily outpaced and beaten before the last )
A nice Triumph Hurdle Trial with a decent sized field with some decent form on offer and a lot of expectation.
Commissioned looks very interesting on paper having been a decent middle distance winner on the flat for Mark Johnston and this son of Authorized garnered a rating of 94 putting it on a decent level with the field but in all honesty it will have to find a very smart level of form fto to trouble the main protagonists.
Cadoudoff is a nice looking sort with a nice profile but was soundly thrashed by Royal Irish Hussar lto and it only looked average although RIH is a very smart prospect im sure Hendo will have his measure in the shape of Kentucky Hyden who himself may struggle to confirm any superiority over my idea of the winner which is VICENZO MIO another crack french runner for the stable which has done so well with these types including nailing the winner of this race twice in the last 3 years ( last four have all been French imports )  with his other runner being the superb Hinterland which ran 2nd so im pretty sure this will be cherry ripe for this.

WIN - VICENZO MIO -
EW - KENTUCKY HYDEN - 2nd @ 3.05
LONG - N/A -

RESULT ;
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RACE 2 - LE BEC - 
Next up is a small field Novice Chase , just the 4 runners turn up here and all closely matched.
Le Reve probably has the most to prove as it has failed to complete in 3 of its last 5 outings and will most likely struggle in this grade.
The most interesting aspect of this is that the remaining three runners met 28 days ago with Le Bec Winning ( 1f shorter ) but all three were pretty much flat out on the run in and with just a 3lb pull its tough to see the outcome being reversed although any errors during the round could easily kill your chance , with this i will say Le Bec wins again however this is far too tight as a betting medium to get involved although at 1.89 i would probably say the place lay on Sam Winner is probably the bet but even then its a tight call and Le Reve @ 21 is too big to Lay.
For small stakes i think the bet is a Place Lay and a Back Win on Sam Winner and the same bet on Le Bec ( 1.43 @ 3.1 ).

WIN - LE BEC - 2nd @ 2.88
EW - SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR - Unplaced
LONG - N/A -

RESULT ;
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RACE 3 - SHOOTERS WOOD ( HCE TIP EW ) - Unplaced ( Weakened away dramatically 2 out after looking very good )
This time we have a seriously tough and open looking 2m Hcap Chase and ANY of the 11 runners can win (  as shown by the selections in todays HCE comp in which 6 have chosen this race and ALL six chose something different ).
I will start off with my selection here (  and HCE cocmp Tip ) SHOOTERS WOOD now running just 6lb higher after Winning this race last year although tbf his form tailed of rather dramatically last term after coming up from 118 to 140 i think it all just got too much for him but now back fresh from the break he will have been primed for a run here and with the PN yard now finding some form it is my opinion that this represents a safe EW bet at decent odds ( 14.0 ).
BG has decided to ride the Fav Tanks for That a horse with definite ability but a dodgy attitude , a lazy jumper and no real guts and a horse i know for a fact Hendo just cant get a handle on...on pure ability it should win and its run in either the Paddy Power over CD or the run at Aintree would be good enough to get it involved but it just cannot be trusted and that alone is enough for me to swerve.
EASTLAKE is an interesting type from the powerful JP estate and this could be a good few pounds than its current rating and has to come here holding every chance and will be the stats EW selection.
As for a Longshot well anyone of around 6 or 7 could fill this spot but at 18.5 i think Parsnip Pete from the in form combo of George / Brennan is worth a go , it does have a few pounds to find and with no reason to expect it to be found makes this a risky bet but you have a good level of consistency on your side and a horse that jumps for fun.

WIN - SHOOTERS WOOD -
EW - EASTLAKE - 1st @ 6.60
LONG - PARSNIP PETE - 4th ( hit 1.70 IR )

RESULT ;
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RACE 4 - KINGS PALACE ( NAP ) - 1st @ 1.93
The final race im covering today is the Bristol Novices Hurdle ( Albert Bartlet )  a 7 runner affair over 3m and another very tight to call and im very simply just going to row in with KINGS PALACE here as this up n comer looks very smart and won with any amount in hand lto over a longer trip so stays all day , the form has been boosted as the runner up has since scooted up , the ground is ideal and this ticks every box.

WIN - KINGS PALACE - 1st @ 1.93
EW - POTTERS CROSS -
LONG - MILAN BOUND -

RESULT ;
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Time is a commodity which just cannot be bought and my clock is now empty..Adios Amigo and GL to all....x