Wednesday, 8 April 2015

Aintree Festival Day Uno..#Doombaraintreehurdle #Hargamwillwin

Late afternoon you miserable lot!!...
                                                     This is one of those late season ( for NH ) meetings that i do enjoy and its a meeting i have had quite good results in over the years and this years looks to be another cracker with plenty of Cheltenham Rejects and Champions once again aspiring to greatness....but in truth this is a bit of a graveyard for Cheltenham runners and only the classiest of classy types can run to the same level as almost all give it rock all there and fire blanks here..so be cautious with your form reading...

We start the day off with the Manifesto Novice Chase over 2m 4f and with just the 6 runners you could think that its a disappointing turnout however all 6 are here with very live chances but its the Fav JOSSES HILL @ 2.54 that i like doesnt have any stamina issues like a couple and holds a few on recent form so id def the one they have to beat and with the brilliant Nico riding i have every confidence that this will be given every chance however it must be pointed out that on its last two tries at this trip it has been soundly beaten...and its a Stat Lay race....and its still making mistakes a plenty in its races.....oh dear the signs are not good...finally to seal the not so done deal its quite poor value given the context and make up of the race...so a Win bet on the Fav with some cover on the roughie Cash n Go @ around 25.0.

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Next on the agenda is a 4yr old Juvenile Hurdle a race specific type in which i excel..so im expecting to nail this winner today.
However this field is made up of 10 mainly disappointing types that all have something to prove and none inspire any level of confidence EXCEPT for one horse that is very much on the up and was only narrowly beaten by something that is right out of the top drawer and that horse is HARGAM beaten lto by Peace n Co ( with the almost as brilliant Top Notch in 2nd and 10L back to Devilment in 4th ) in a terrific race and a run to anywhere near that level sees this win...i simply dont see how this can be beat ( by another Annie Power miracle last fence fall ) and this has to be the NAP for today and may well be the bet of the week @ 1.92 ( Now ) - 2.0 ( in the last ten mins this has dipped into 1.76 )..Lump On as it will take a record breaking run for something to beat this today.

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Now its the Betfred Bowl over 3m1f and this is a tough race to call for a variety of reasons Firstly Silvi' Conti a favourite of mine will be more at home here on the flat track than somewhere like Cheltenham where he always fails to deliver and he also won this race last year  however the only horse to record multiple wins in this was the Doumen trained First Gold 13 and 15 years ago and no horse has ever recorded back to backs plus its the favourite and its a grave yard for favourites plus i really like the first two so having the first three Favs win ( as i write this Holywell is actually the 3.15 Fav ) is a statistical no no...the negatives are just piling up that said..this is just a 7 runner race in which most are out of their depth , running a wrong trip or are held on form and i can see no other winner...............so against all the statistical evidence and negativity i will say that once again SILVINACO CONTI will win as he imo quite a way better than these with Holywell and Ma Fillule the two to chase him home.

RESULT : 

Doom Bar Hurdle time and a race i am looking forward too , its over 2m4f and although there are just the 6 runners it has plenty of quality although its missing The New One it still has a decent feel about it but i bring this field down to three , Jezki who has run as though he is a spent force after last seasons heroics and is best watched until something amazing happens but will be in the hunt until probably weakening in the final 2f and Artic Fire who has improved no end this term running a series of career bests with a great lto run behind Faugheen ( one in a million ) however its been a long season and he is tackling a trip unknown to him so as much as i think he will run a fair race i think this will be the day he boils over which gives me ROCK ON RUBY as the likely winner who was pulled out of Cheltenham due to a slight strain and will arrive cherry ripe for this and has previous as he was only just beat in this last year by the brilliant The New One and has already easily accounted for Vaniteaux and at 4.2 i think this is a cracking bet.

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Hunter Chase time and the Foxhunter series brings out the best in this sphere however with a field of 30 just about anything could happen and this will for sure be a drama packed race as in the last 5 years we have had 3 Favourites win with the other two at 50/1 and 100/1....so really ANYTHING can happen.
On the Fringe absolutely bolted up at Cheltenham destroying a strong looking field by some 17L but will struggle to confirm that form today and at 5.2 offers nothing , BIG FELLA THANKS however at 8.2 is the class in the field with a placed effort in the national a good run last year in the Topham and a Win lto confirming his well being and i think this will be well placed for a big run.
Others to note will be of course last years winner Warne @ 7.2 who is again in tip top shape , Earth Dream @ 55/1 and a wild card of sorts in BOBS LAW at around 33/1 which i feel is the sporting bet in a tough race , Pacha Du Polder , BFT , OTF and Major Malarkey will ensure this is a true test so i would suggest having a dutch bet here and me and the PP its gonna be Bobs Law, Big Fella Thanks , Pacha Du Polder and On the Fringe...Good Luck.

RESULT : 

Nightmare scenario now...Handicap..Chase...17 Runners.....arghh!!...Head for the Hills!!...this is a bookies benefit race for sure.....jeez!!.
With two stone separating them in the weights and around 30lb in the ratings this has been a labour of love for the handicapper and it will run very close to these ideals imo.
Sean Bowen has a great ride on Claret Cloak in this and at 11.5 is well worth a few squids from anyone's pocket loves the ground the trip and has previously run well here when 2nd at this meeting last year so will be given a confident ride and should be there or thereabouts and thats all i can say about this other than my other pp picks will be Pearls Legend and Darwins Fox.

RESULT : 

3m Hcap Hurdle to round the day off  and with 22 runners this isnt the type of race you want as your " getting out stakes ".
CALL THE COPS and UNIQUE DE COTTE is a great looking dutch that will give you a fun finale if nothing else.

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