Tuesday, 14 April 2015

Newmarket

Well Morning Folks ,
                               For me personally this Thursday is when the Flat season starts proper as its the time of year that the Guineas and Derby trials take place and the yards have had a bit of time to warm up and throw a few into action the ground has become more stable and the weather has warmed ( although its quite chilly today ) the bigger guns start firing and the NH scene starts to take a back seat.

The lady in question is Nell Gwynn and that is also todays feature race but is ably supported by the Free Hcap , The Tattersalls 100k and the NGK and it promises to be an eventful day although in truth not many have come out of today and done huge amounts at the top level Hot Snap was a big Winner but failed miserably after it, Sandiva was expected to go onto much bigger things but generally failed , both Shifting Power and Garswood flattered to deceive on many an occasion and True Story after winning the Fielden Stakes went to the Dante as a hot Fav ( 8/13 ) and got pummelled and until winning a piss pot race in Meydan did virtually nothing...so what can we takle from this weeks meeting ?..well firstly the winners will obviously be the more advanced and fitter and sometimes a few months older and will generally only be 2nd or 3rd strings from the top yards but the smaller yards send there better or best types out just to try an attain some much vaunted " Black Type "...so the likes of Fahey who is red hot right now must be respected as he often sends a fancied runner here along with relative smaller stables like Hugo Palmer , Karl Burke and David Simcock along with a few others , i will try my best to get something from this but an awful lot has to be taken on trust and there is also a fair amount of guessing going on...this isnt really a punters meeting in truth as too many questions need to be answered but i will see if i can eek some value from it.

NEWMARKET

RACE 1
We start the day off with the Alex Scott maiden (10 runners and for 3 yr olds) where 3 Favs have Won in the last 7 years yet has produced nothing of note in quite some time and from the last 7 years only two went onto win their next race.
From thew field of 10 we have 6 with some level of experience and just the one with an official rating and that is ACASTER MALABIS with a rather high 92p. This has run in some very good races indeed and faced some considerable quality so the rating is probably fair on its last two outings over 1m it only faltered in the last furlong being beat in both into 2nd beaten a Short head in one and 1L in the other which would suggest also that the drop down to 7f will be ideal however all of its races regardless of trip have shown this to weaken at the back end so is it a case of choke out n full throttle , is it quirky or getting worked up?...i think there is something amiss in truth and for me i cant back it although in 95% of maidens in the UK a horse rated 92 would hose up as most can only run or show to a level at around the mid 70's at best so in theory its racing with a 20lb advantage.
Akeed Champion by the trainers own words " could be anything " and this is a fact finding mission currently in the 2000 Guineas this will test his metal but has form that allowing for growing and strengthening is enough to have him considered.
This all said i personally think HAKAM is the one to beat from the equally hot and in form Hills yard one run 42 days ago at Lingfield where it was sent off the very warm Even money Fav , it ran 2nd this day but was switched wide then carried out then ran very green but ran on and was only just denied by the shadow of the post beaten a Nose but another stride would have sufficed so for all intent and purpose its a winner without a penalty and that was also over 7f which is a bonus..so it stays , it will like the ground , it has experience and proven ability and on a very thin form line via Snoano he has the beating of Acaster Malbis and i feel today could be his day,it will take a very smart run imo of at least 84 to beat this as i think Hakam ran to around 78 that day and could easily run to the low 90's if asked the question which will suffice.

BET : HAKAM - 4.0 so EW -

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (7)Carnival King (IRE)B J Meehan39-0R Clark (3)25/1
Led, headed over 2f out, led again over 1f out, ridden and ran on
2nd (10)1Hakam (USA)C Hills39-0P Hanagan3/1
Close up, headway and not clear run over 1f out, switched left inside final furlong, ran on, not reach winner
3rd (4)nkAcaster Malbis (FR)R Hannon39-0R Hughes4/1
Prominent, ridden and every chance over 1f out, ran on, lost 2nd final strides
RESULT: 2nd @ 4.89

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RACE 2:
Now its the turn of the 2 yr olds to shine as we have the NGK a race over 5f that has been won previously by some early season type speed balls.
Now the whole 2 yr old sphere is usually something i let my compadre Jason Coote soak up as this his area of expertise but as im doing a run thru i may as well throw my two penneth worth in.
7 runners so it is easier than some i have covered and just the one with experience and what experience that was!! with a very good albeit narrow win over this 5f trip in an unspectacular time so has to go on the shortist of shortlists however MJ is as we know an oddity and his runners quite often blow hot n cold they lose when they look nailed on and win when they have it all to do....one of those yards i just cant get a handle on and at the likely very short or even odds on price i think this is one i shall leave.
On breeding CITY OF STARS and GIFTED MASTER make most appeal and as a betting medium there is a better reward to be had by dutching these rather than just laying the Fav so for me that is my play.

BET: DUTCH Win on City of Stars & Gifted Master - 6.0 Each -

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (6)Gifted Master (IRE)H Palmer28-9F Tylicki4/1
Dwelt close up in rear, headway on inside over 1f out, quickened to lead entering final furlong, ran on
2nd (5)4City of Stars (IRE)M Appleby28-9A Mullen5/1
Prominent, ridden to lead over 1f out, headed entering final furlong, kept on one pace

RESULT: Gifted Master 1st @ 5.30 (City of Stars 2nd @ 7.76)
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RACE 3:
Next up is an interesting affair the £100k Tattersalls Sprint over 6f for 3 yr olds with 9 runners this could be a promising betting heat.
There is a runner i like very much in this and thats BALLYMORE CASTLE and it will hopefully go off at a working mans EW price. Fahey himself was going to throw this into the Free Hcap but instead went for this ( the only other early season option ) and i know for a fact he really likes this son of Invincible Spirit and is thought capable of getting 7f or possibly even 1m in time but is happy with its speed over 6f and for me this has to be the bet today and will possibly be my EW NAP with Doyle taking the ride.
Of course this is far from being a "done deal" as the whole field is open to any amount of improvement or optimism but i like the reviews ive been given and for me thats enough.

BET: BALLYMORE CASTLE - EW - Currently 7.0 -

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (4)Bossy Guest (IRE)M R Channon39-5Charles Bishop5/1
Towards rear, outpaced halfway, headway and switched right over 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on
2nd (1)Ballymore Castle (IRE)R A Fahey39-5James Doyle8/1
Raced wide in touch, headway over 2f out, ridden to lead and edged left over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, ran on

RESULT: NAP - 2nd @ 10.0 ( Hit 1.16 )
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RACE 4:
Now we have the European Free Hcap and rather disappointingly we have just the 5 runners with a red hot Fav in Faydhan a horse that hosed up over 6f the best part of 9 months ago and is a typical hyperbole sort from the yard and tbh hasnt done enough to justify a tissue of 4/9 which is an insult to the field and the higher rated more accomplished runners and for me this fav should be avoided for this a race which hasnt been kind to favourites historically , Shifting Power Won at 13/8 last year and Garswood at 5/2f the year prior but previously Zumba was unplaced when 10/11f , Elzamm was Unplaced when 11/8 , Quadrille was 2nd @ 10/1 , Awinnersgame was 2nd @ 7/2 then we had a hat trick of winners in Stimulation that Won @ 7/2, Prime Defender Won @ 5/2 and Misu Bond @ 11/4 ( none of this trio that short ) and the Four before that were all beaten with the lowest price being 7/4.
ANY of the remaining four may well either be better or more forward as they have proven ability and equal or better rating so to take the 1.45 for the Fav is just ludicrous when the remainder are all double digits..this is a no brainer lay/back..

BET: LAY the Fav @ 1.45 and have a punt on the 2nd n 3rd fav for a payday no damage if the fav wins...keep the stakes tight.

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (2)Home Of The Brave (IRE)H Palmer38-13 t1James Doyle9/2
Raced keenly made all, quickened over 1f out, ridden and ran on
2nd (1)Tupi (IRE)R Hannon38-11R Hughes20/1
Tracked winner, ridden 2f out, edged left and no impression final furlong
3rd (3)Faydhan (USA)J H M Gosden38-13P Hanagan1/2f
Dwelt close up in rear, ridden over 1f out, ran on to go 3rd inside final furlong, not trouble leaders

RESULT: FAV was UNPLACED (WIN) and 2nd Fav @ 6.80 was 1st
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RACE 5:
Fillies time and its the Nell Gwyn with 9 runners and a really strong looking renewal..tread lightly i say.
The Fav is 5/1 so in a small field this tells you an awful lot , Osaila is the form pick and probably on the face of things the one they have to beat but transferring 2 yr old form into 3yr old form is not a literal task as many a facet may have changed but this is certainly a player as they all are to some degree.
Lady Correspondent has around 9L to find with Osaila and Bonds Girl / Astrelle look patently outclassed,Marsh Hawk and Muraaqba both look very interesting and enter calculations but for me the one i really like is TERROR this hosed up lto over just 6f but it was a run that promised so much more as it hardly broke sweat had previously run the excellent Tiggy Wiggy to within 3L in the Cheverley Park and had Won its Maiden by a never off the bridle 10L so if there is a stand out horse for potential then this is it and at around 6.8 - 7.0 this offers i think great Value as i had it down at around 4.2-4.6 so its a max EW for me and i will include it with a couple of others in accas.

BET: TERROR - EW - ( 6.80 )

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (2)Osaila (IRE)R Hannon39-0L Dettori4/1
Raced on outer, held up in touch in rear, headway 3f out, close up, ridden to lead and edged left inside final furlong, ran on
2nd (5)s.hNew ProvidenceH Palmer39-0Jim Crowley7/1
Tracked leaders, went 2nd halfway, ridden to lead over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, rallied close home
3rd (3)Beautiful RomanceS bin Suroor39-0James Doyle10/3f
Raced wide in touch, headway halfway, pushed along and every chance when short of room over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong

RESULT: NON RUNNER -
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RACE 6:
Fielden Stakes and this looks a really tricky race to call with the whole field in with a shout and i think im going to have to take a look at two or three of the roughies.
The bottom three in the market most appeal as a betting medium PUISSANT , MUSTADEEM & ALGAITH all of whom should return at between 12/1 - 25/1 and dutching these is the value play as the form on most is only a token apart and all three should run solid enough races against the favs which are not much better on paper if at all and are shorter due to the list of entries or riding arrangements this is an ideal race to latch onto one or two ( 3 in my case ) outsiders.

BET : 3 WAY DUTCH on those listed above

RESULT: Fav Wins @ 2/1 - Golden Horn.
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RACE 7:
Race seven and its a very high quality maiden to digest with almost half the field having some experience and the rest all bred in the purple.
Varian has a rare runner from the all conquering Tabor/Magnier team in Joseph Jefferson and this son of Rip Van Winkle will surely be winning sooner rather than later as it has a notable entry into the Derby and is one to keep ya eye on.
Storm the Stars will be seen to better effect now tackling middle distances but i will hold fire to see how Golden Horn runs in the earlier race.There are 4 runs by New Approach and any of this quartet could be very useful indeed whilst Petrucci looks to be one to follow through the season but the one i really like the look of is the 20/1 outsider CARPE VITA who is a Full brother to both John Constable and Leading Light by a dam who herself Won both the Queen Mary and the Fred Darling Stakes before rattling up a hat trick in the USA , John Constable did quite well but Leading Light was superb in winning 8 of 11 races including The Queens Vase , St Leger and the Gold Cup so this son of Montjeu could indeed be very useful and is one to notebook whatever happens.

BET: CAPRE VITA - EW - 18.50 - 

RESULT:Mine was never really put into the race as Godolphin took the honors under a good ride from Doyle.
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RACE 8:
The finale in a long day and im simply going to say TICKS THE BOXES EW to round off a good days racing....enjoy folks.

RESULT:

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