Thursday, 2 April 2015

AW Flat Championship #Lingfield

Morning Folks ,
                          Well here we are just dipping our toes into April and after the cracking weekend at Donny just gone by the Flat season is back and comes back proper this Easter weekend and with it we get the brilliant Good Friday card at Lingfield who hold the AW Champions day and it looks a stellar day.

Now this season i will only be focusing on Tips and Selections in Group 1 and Listed ( all grades ) plus the occasional card/day from the likes of Royal Ascot / Glorious Goodwood / Derby day etc....so we will see a thinning out of selections in the process but with me solely focusing on the better races i will have more time to focus and evaluate the form and facts at hand.

This seasons selections and cards will also see a slightly altered format ,
You will get the following ,

1. PRO PICK - this will be a selection based on best form and data available and will be the selection that is thought best bet to win.

2. VALUE BET - this will be a selection that is thought to hold best value and is worth a nibble or to follow as value is the key to true success.

3. EW Smart Play - These wont always be made available as they may clash elsewhere but will be given when available these are horses that may not be good enough for a win but could easily run a place at a decent price and with some luck could run better , these will also form what used to be the older " Longshot " selection.
4. Market Movers - These will be selections that the Betfair market has on point or shorter than the TAB's and when this occurs these generally run very close to their mark or the market and should be followed although if must be noted that these can only be added  thru the day and sometimes as close as 5 mins before the off so in order to get the latest info you will have to stay in touch and upto date and i will do my best to update these.
5. LAYBETS - These will be given when we have what i think is just a " damn good Lay " these will be sporadic and prices on these will vary but i feel confident that if followed over the season you will see a healthy return.

The One a Day , Stat Lays and ERIC picks will all re-start from Saturday with current performance and charts updated over the weekend and any questions on any of the above feel free to email , facebook or comment also the BOOK is finally finished...Hooray!!!...and i am currently going through a two week phase of proof reading , altering and adjusting but its looking bloody great and i am currently speaking to both OLBG and ODDSCHECKER about having it syndicated as well as a friend who is getting it posted either as a job lot or by Chapter via Kindle..so should be very interesting and im sure you will all love the finished product.

So with the advent of this cracking looking card i shall endeavor to devour it and see what we get.

                                                            LINGFIELD

RACE 1.

32Red.com All-Weather Fillies' And Mares' Championships Conditions Stakes7f 1y

  • (4yo+, 7f 1y, Class 2, 11 runners)
  • Winner £93,375 2nd £27,960 3rd £13,980 4th £6,990 5th £3,4956th £1,755
  • Going: Standard
  • Surface: Polytrack
.






So we start off with a cracker for this 7 race card and these races are quite hard to fully scope at the best of times so today will have me scratching my head a bit and not because i have fucking lice either ya cheeky twats!!...
Its interesting the Fav for this is FRESLES @ around 11/4 , this ran in a qualifier and come 2nd at 20/1 so was not obviously fancied and in truth it struggled a bit at the back end of that race but it must be said that the time of that race was quick in fact it was quicker time wise than when Slade Power won the July Cup last year and although no direct comparisons can be made ( course , ground , opposition etc all different ) it does give you an idea of how good a run that was but it was none the less over 6f and this is over 7f and although this Fav has won over the trip there is no way on earth im taking that type of price about a horse with so much to prove.
History Book has a similar time on its CV and must surely come into the reckoning here however like many of these is not racing at its perfect trip in fact most of this field is either going up in distance or coming down and i think with quite a bit of pace on offer the ones coming down in trip may benefit the most so i will look at the 1m specialists that finish off with a flourish.

1. PRO - KATHIBA - 
Probably thee only true 7f horse in the race and will be fit coming from a very professional yard and one that seems to be perpetually in form no black spots, no purple patches just a nice consistent line of runners and this imo is the one they have to beat. 3/1 Joint Fav on most books.

2. VALUE - LAMAR - 
This has been very highly tried from day 1 so has obviously been well regarded and thought of much more that shown had run without troubling the judge in the Star Stakes , Dick Poole and Sweet Solara ( 3 very good races for young uns ) before picking up some expenses when 4th in the Nell Gwynn and then predictably did nothing in the 1000 Guineas ( 100/1 ) before looking down other avenues and the next decent run come in the Sandringham where although 7th was only beaten 3L in a hotly contested race and that is possibly the best bit of form on offer imo and has shown up very well on the AW this term racing around this trip and i think the 6/1 is a fair if not stellar price ( 10/1 would have been my target price ) but its still enough to get me looking and if on the day Betfair offers me a price within my range i will have an EW on this.
3. LAYBET - FRESLES - 
Is just too short a price where the whole field will be mixing it up and has to be taken on at anything under 3/1 but nothing higher than 7/2.

RESULT :
 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 2.

Unibet All-Weather Sprint Championships Conditions Stakes6f 1y

  • (4yo+, 6f 1y, Class 2, 12 runners)
  • Winner £93,375 2nd £27,960 3rd £13,980 4th £6,990 5th £3,4956th £1,755
  • Going: Standard
  • Surface: Polytrack
.






An excellent turnout for this Sprint Crown which sees a few old foes locking horns once again.
PRETEND is the Hot Favourite here and this is one i am very keen to take on as its speed rating on my books ( although ERIC may disagree here ) is slow , good times for 5f and above average for 7f but slow for 6f and that is what this race is and i feel one of the " old guard " will teach this young dog some new tricks.
RIVELLINO is possibly one of the most consistent sprinters in training not flash at all but has an engine and when he gets a chance its usually grabbed with both hands and can mix it with the best and his 3rd in the Wokingham and a narrow loss in the AW Cleeve are arguably the best bits of stand alone form on offer and a repeat of either puts him bang there but i am in truth unsure where the pace will come from as this likes to take aim and barnstorm home to be seen to best effect so there is a ? regarding that but none the less will give punters a cracking good run i think you just have to cross your fingers a bit as these hold up types win less than their price would indicate so i would have to get top side of what i need to get involved and the current 9/1 just isnt enough as i would need at least 16/1 to part with some cash.

1. PRO - PRETEND - 
Obvious improver and from a stand out yard like Godolphin will have every use made of him and could easily end up being a proper Class 1 sprinter but until we see it its all ifs n butts.

2. VALUE - RIVELLINO - 
Not the price i want but maybe Betfair will offer me a gift tmrw...currently 10.50...come on gimme a couple more points!!.....so many horses have form and lengths to make up on this that if this gets the run of the race he will def place and could easily beat these hands down...but you need things to fall into place so you need a price that factors this in.
3. LAYBET - PRETEND - 
Could well win but at 5/4 there is no harm in taking it on hoping it empties off the bend and gets collared.

RESULT : 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 3.

32Red All-Weather 3 Year Old Mile Championships Conditions Stakes1m 1y

  • (3yo, 1m 1y, Class 2, 7 runners)
  • Winner £93,375 2nd £27,960 3rd £13,980 4th £6,990 5th £3,4956th £1,755
  • Going: Standard
  • Surface: Polytrack






This looks a race that Godolphin REALLY want win having 3 of the 7 runners and in truth its hard to see past them yes the remainder can have a case made of sorts but all 3 Blue Boys look very smart prospects indeed.
That was my initial reaction.....i have digested all the available info now and i must admit i have my doubts about two of them at this stage..i do think LEXINGTON TIMES has a great chance coming into this with the perceived Blue 3rd string TEMPUS TEMPRIS the best of theirs and LT holds a few lengths on a couple of these...Four Seasons was easily beaten by this 5L last time out and Emirates Skycargo has been raised a huge 16lb for his lto win so they both look to have mountains to climb.

1. PRO - LEXINGTON TIMES - 
Yes my initial thoughts were the BIB's were all over this but the longer i look the harder i see it for them and this consistently classy sort could be a nice winner for Hughes in his last season although im not so keen on the 15/8.
2. VALUE - TEMPUS TEMPORIS - 
Im not so sure the 11/4 represents " Value " as my book makes it 7/2 for starters but other issues have forced this into the slot but i wouldnt recommend a bet at this price i would need 7/2 to start looking and probably 4/1 before i get my wallet out.
3. SMART PLAY - GROWING GLORY - 
This is currently 10/1 and will hopefully go up a few points tmrw but is still a good punt at 10/1 , Listed AW Winner in France at Cagnes and has the ability to get involved here and IDK reckons it should be rated around 96 so has little find to be mixing it with the top rated types at their best so looks a good bet and is probably where i will go.
4. LAYBET - SKYCARGO - 
@ 4/1 this is rock solid  all round as a Lay...but not a single cent higher.

RESULT : 
                    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 4.

Ladbrokes All-Weather Mile Championships Conditions Stakes1m 1y

  • (4yo+, 1m 1y, Class 2, 12 runners)
  • Winner £93,375 2nd £27,960 3rd £13,980 4th £6,990 5th £3,4956th £1,755
  • Going: Standard
  • Surface: Polytrack






This can be posted under the tab " disappointing " as the line up and look of this for a £100k race is nothing better than a work a day Hcap so those with a bigger rating and technically getting weight or those well in will have a much better implied chance and therefore there odds will be in theory bigger than they should be.
the one i really like for this is SOVEREIGN DEBT rated 109 and is what one could call a Veteran but has spent the majority of his career racing at the highest level and is still showing up well which was confirmed with a lto win. This is a horse lets not forget that ran 2nd in the Lockinge and beaten just 4L by Farrh in May 13' and was beaten less than 3l in the Doncaster Mile and beaten just 6L in the Queen Anne Stakes but its price is a tad short for me to really get involved heavily as it still has a couple of ~~ by its name which is enough for me to swerve as a betting medium.

1. PRO BET - SOVEREIGN DEBT - 
As stated above is the most likeliest winner and is one for the big boys only not for me at the price...i would rather have the questions answered and take 6/4 than leave  them unanswered and be given 3/1...

2. VALUE - CAPTAIN JOY - 
Holds a couple on lateral form including Mindurownbusiness ( who also holds a few ) and at 9/2 ( 6.2 ) is just on the cusp of being ok as a bet as this should run a big race and a place would be expected and with luck in running a win is on the cards and Smullen is a jockey i like and admire and this will be given every opportunity to win.

3. SMART PLAY - ALFRED HUTCHINSON - 
3rd in this last year and does have some recent form to turn around but this resolute and reliable runner can produce on its day and at 16/1 is well worth some ew coinage in a tough race.

RESULT - 
                                          ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 5. 

Coral Easter Classic All-Weather Middle Distance Championships Conditions Stakes1m 2f

  • (4yo+, 1m 2f, Class 2, 8 runners)
  • Winner £124,500 2nd £37,280 3rd £18,640 4th £9,320 5th £4,6606th £2,340
  • Going: Standard
  • Surface: Polytrack






This is possibly the days toughest race and is certainly one of the best for prize money and is contested by 8 runners of which all including the roughie can be included or classed as " having a chance ".
But i find it surprising that in a race that on paper at least looks very competitive we have a 4/6 red hot Fav and this is 1.64 on Betfair which by my own teachings would suggest that this is nailed on??!!??...I cant really find a chink in TRYSTERS Armour in truth it has won its last four and 3 of those were very comfortable and all were at this or thereabouts distance and all were on the AW inc a CD win...so comes here red hot in form , loves everything and ticks every box and in truth is probably worth a rating of around 114 with provisions of it reaching around 122-126 if it continues this trend and can carry this form on to the turf but for now the 115 i have it on should be good enough.

1. PRO BET - TRYSTER - 
As detailed above is the one they ALL have to beat could easily be different class to these and should win this before going into the big leagues.

I have been through all available pieces of form and simply cannot find anything to take this on with...by all accounts and my reckoning this is a done deal...i just dont see anything being able to turn the form around or get this beat....nailed on?..you would think so ..i will make this my NAP then.

RESULT -
                                              ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 6.

Unibet 3 Year Old Sprint All-Weather Championships Conditions Stakes5f 6y

  • (3yo, 5f 6y, Class 2, 11 runners)
  • Winner £93,375 2nd £27,960 3rd £13,980 4th £6,990 5th £3,4956th £1,755
  • Going: Standard
  • Surface: Polytrack






3 Yr old Sprint Final now  and some very speedy types here and for me this will be a quick BIB double as i am really keen on PORTAMENTO a very animal indeed and one i have down for all the years big sprints ( Nunthorpe etc ) and more so over this 5f than 6f as it races a few pounds below its true rating over 6f but over 5f i have it as Group Class and can easily be put into any of the years big events with ease.
Any horse that can consistently run under 60 seconds for 5f and can post great fractions and can also quicken at the back is a horse that has class stamped all over it and this realistically should be the days Nap as the 1.66 is not a great price for anyone but the 3.3-3.7 for this is excellent especially as its only 15/8  with the Tab's and i only had it down at 6/4 so for me its a top notch Value bet as well as i cast iron win bet..all my boxes are ticked and then some and i will tell you it will take a bloody good fast run for something to beat this and im not sure anything here can even improve enough to get within a length , there are some nice types here but i have this between 11 - 26lb clear.

1. PRO BET - PORTAMENTO - 
NB - As Above...has to be backed as i have this a mile clear and is a horse i truly feel is a couple of tiers better than these...

RESULT : 
                                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 7.

32Red All-Weather Marathon Championships Conditions Stakes1m 7f 169y

  • (4yo+, 1m 7f 169y, Class 2, 11 runners)
  • Winner £93,375 2nd £27,960 3rd £13,980 4th £6,990 5th £3,4956th £1,755
  • Going: Standard
  • Surface: Polytrack






Well here we are..the Finale and its not a race im over keen on in truth however this will be a race with synopsis as i am going all in on HURRICANE HIGGINS as i have been very confidently informed by the yard that this has an excellent chance of winning and there will be a few wage packets getting emptied onto its back , yes its a very competitive affair and yes Anglophile looks a very strong runner for the BIBs but the confidence in the Hendo runner is so overwhelming ( not the usual bullshit , they " hand on heart " think it will place and has an excellent chance of winning ) i simply have to get involved.

1. PRO BET - HURRICANE HIGGINS - 
The only bet for me and im very happy with my 5/1 EW.

2. VALUE - KINGS BAYONET - 
Runners on the flat from the Alan King yard should never be underestimated and if i wanted to chance my arm against then this at between 20 - 33/1 would be my choice as the bibs will be over bet here on the back of one if not two earlier victories.

RESULT : 
                                     ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

So this promises to be a very exciting day with some excellent racing , have a great Easter people , love to all, ttfn x.

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